Long Term Land Use - Precipitation Feedbacks in the Hai River and Poyang Lake Regions

长期土地利用——海河和鄱阳湖地区降水反馈

• 批准号: 161780179
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Harald Kunstmann
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2009-12-31 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/161780179?language=en
• 关键词: Long; Term; Land; Use; Precipitation

On all scales, the components of the hydrological cycle are continuously changing and affect the availability and quality of water as essential pre-requisites for human development and sustainable ecological conditions. Hydrological change can be mainly attributed to climate change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, land cover conversions, and water resources management due to human development. In all three cases, feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere, the land surface, and the subsurface play a crucial role for correct quantification of past, current and future expected water availability. Dynamic feedbacks between the compartments are primarily due to the water and energy fluxes at and between the land surface/subsurface and the atmosphere that are inextricably intertwined over a large range of space- and time-scales. Up to now, feedback analysis is hampered by the lack of appropriate regional model systems that are truly able to account for the long term, i.e. climatic relevant feedback processes between the compartments for meso-scale catchments (up to several 100,000 km²). While most of climate change or land use change hydrological impact assessments rely on simple one-way coupled applications of regional atmospheric models and distributed hydrological models, the development and application of a fully two way coupled model system would close a central gap in hydrological research. It is therefore the objective of PreFeed to develop such a fully two way coupled, meso-scale regional model system, apply it to the two target regions Hai River and Poyang Lake Region and to investigate long term feedback mechanisms between groundwater-, soil moisture dynamics and precipitation. This fully two way coupled mesoscale atmosphere-terrestrial hydrology model system will be realised by tightly coupling the mesoscale meteorological model WRF/Noah-LSM and the newly developed distributed hydrological model Noah-LSM/HMS. Land surface – precipitation feedback measures will be quantified on multiple temporal and spatial scales. Finally, transient regional simulations using the fully coupled model system for 1960-2050 will be performed for different land use representations and the impact of joint climate change-land sue change will be estimated for the two target regions.

在所有尺度上，水文循环的组成部分都在不断变化，影响着水的供应和质量，而水是人类发展和可持续生态条件的重要先决条件。水文变化主要归因于温室气体排放增加、土地覆盖变化以及人类发展导致的水资源管理导致的气候变化。在这三种情况下，大气、地表和地下之间的反馈机制对于正确量化过去、当前和未来的预期可用水量起着至关重要的作用。隔室之间的动态反馈主要是由于陆地表面/地下和大气之间的水和能量通量，它们在大范围的空间和时间尺度上密不可分地交织在一起。到目前为止，反馈分析因缺乏真正能够解释长期的适当区域模型系统而受到阻碍，即中尺度流域（高达数十万平方公里）的分区之间的气候相关反馈过程。虽然大多数气候变化或土地利用变化水文影响评估依赖于区域大气模型和分布式水文模型的简单单向耦合应用，但完全双向耦合模型系统的开发和应用将弥补水文研究的主要空白。因此，PreFeed的目标是开发这样一个完全双向耦合的中尺度区域模型系统，将其应用于海河和鄱阳湖地区两个目标区域，并研究地下水、土壤湿度动态和降水之间的长期反馈机制。这个完全双向耦合的中尺度大气-陆地水文模型系统将通过中尺度气象模型WRF/Noah-LSM和新开发的分布式水文模型Noah-LSM/HMS的紧密耦合来实现。地表-降水反馈措施将在多个时间和空间尺度上进行量化。最后，将使用 1960-2050 年全耦合模型系统对不同的土地利用表示进行瞬态区域模拟，并估计气候变化-土地起诉变化对两个目标区域的联合影响。