CNH2-S: Long Term Perspectives on Water Security, Food Security, and Land Management Among Pastoralists Experiencing Change

不断变化的天气模式和全球化影响着社区的长期可持续性。干旱和半干旱草原以及牧场/放牧社区尤其受到水、食物、饲料和牧场可用性不确定性的影响。该研究项目调查了经历牧场生态系统变化的牧民对水安全、粮食安全、栖息地丧失、文化变革和土地管理的长期观点。该项目利用考古学、历史航空图像、遥感技术、民族志和生成模型，将有助于更细致地了解全球半干旱地区牧民/放牧社会环境系统之间的复杂相互作用。它将检验这样一个假设：当前的发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境状况的交叉代表了一种偏离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，最终将导致环境退化。项目结果将广泛传播，以增加重点牧民社区获得清洁水和医疗保健的机会。该项目还将产生有助于了解与美国和全球牧场主相关的放牧实践弹性的数据，以及教育美国学生系统思维、弹性和保护的教材（例如计算机模拟、角色扮演棋盘游戏）。教学材料将通过内布拉斯加大学的教学计划和网站免费提供。该项目将记录半干旱地区传统土地利用系统的弹性，以及它们在日益全球化的世界和不断变化的天气模式中所面临的变化。目前，当地生态系统面临土地退化和野生动物丧失的问题，而水传播疾病和粮食不安全的增加威胁着牧民社区。调查人员假设，当前发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境状况的交叉代表了一种偏离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，将导致广泛的环境退化。该地区的考古学和古生态学回顾表明，游牧社会与自然环境之间存在长期耦合，但当前的人种学和健康指标表明社会生态系统存在压力。项目的总体目标是整合跨越 10ka 的环境和人类数据，以深入了解系统及其随时间的适应能力。这将通过将过去几十年正在进行的古生态学、考古学和人种学研究的数据与旨在了解社会生态相互作用及其对现代社会的影响的新研究相结合来实现。考古研究、历史航空图像和遥感数据将为不同时间段的土地利用模式和生态提供纵向视角。民族志访谈将有助于描述传统土地利用和保护做法及其近期变化，而对健康、营养、水质、水和粮食不安全、人类和牲畜能量以及当代土地覆盖的调查将为了解近期发展的影响提供基线。最后，生成模型将有助于在当代观察和历史代理之间建立联系，并允许预测当前的趋势。结果将为与利益相关者（例如牧民、土地管理者、非政府组织）沟通提供重要工具，并将有助于理解全球半干旱地区牧民/放牧耦合的自然人类系统的复杂相互作用。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Changing weather patterns and globalization affect the long-term sustainability of communities. Arid and semi-arid grasslands and ranching/herding communities are particularly affected by uncertainty regarding the availability of water, food, forage, and grazing land. This research project investigates long term perspectives on water security, food security, habitat loss, cultural change, and land management among pastoralists experiencing change in a rangeland ecosystem. Using archaeological, historical aerial imagery, remote sensing techniques, ethnography, and generative modeling, this project will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of complex interactions within pastoralist/grazing socio-environmental systems in semi-arid lands globally. It will test the hypothesis that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will ultimately lead to environmental degradation. Project results will be widely disseminated to increase access to clean water and healthcare among the focal pastoralist community. The project will also produce data that is useful for understanding the resiliency of grazing practices relevant to cattle-ranchers in the United States and globally, and teaching materials (e.g. computer simulations, a roleplaying boardgame) to educate US students about systems thinking, resiliency, and conservation. Teaching materials will be made available for free through University of Nebraska teaching initiatives and websites.This project will document the resiliency of traditional land use systems in semi-arid lands and the changes they face in an increasingly globalized world with shifting weather patterns. Currently, the local ecosystem faces land degradation and loss of wildlife, while increases in waterborne illness and food insecurity threaten the pastoralist community. The investigators hypothesize that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will lead to widespread environmental degradation. Reviews of the archaeology and paleoecology of the region indicate a long-term coupling between pastoralist societies and the natural environment, yet current ethnographic and health indicators suggest stress in the socio-ecological system. The overall project aim is to integrate environmental and human data spanning 10ka to gain a deep perspective on the system and its adaptive capacity through time. This will be accomplished by merging data from ongoing paleoecological, archaeological, and ethnographic research over the last several decades with new research targeted at understanding social-ecological interactions and their implications for the modern community. Archaeological study, historic aerial imagery, and remote sensing data will provide a longitudinal perspective onto land use patterns and ecology through time. Ethnographic interviews will help to characterize traditional land use and conservation practices and their recent changes, while investigations of health, nutrition, water quality, water and food insecurity, human and livestock energetics, and contemporary land cover will provide a baseline for understanding the impacts of recent developments. Finally, generative modeling will help to establish linkages between contemporary observations and historic proxies and allow projection of current trends forward. Results will provide an important tool for communicating with stakeholders (e.g. pastoralists, land managers, NGOs) and will have relevance for understanding the complex interactions of pastoralist/grazing coupled natural human systems in semi-arid lands globallyThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.