CNH2-S: Long Term Perspectives on Water Security, Food Security, and Land Management Among Pastoralists Experiencing Change

气候模式的变化和全球化影响了社区的长期可持续性。干旱和半干旱草原和牧场/牧民社区尤其受到水、食物、牧草和牧场土地可获得性不确定性的影响。这项研究项目调查了在牧场生态系统中经历变化的牧民在水安全、食物安全、栖息地丧失、文化变化和土地管理方面的长期前景。利用考古、历史航空图像、遥感技术、人种学和生成模型，该项目将有助于更细致地了解全球半干旱地区牧民/放牧社会环境系统内的复杂相互作用。它将检验这样一种假设，即目前的发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境环境的交叉代表着一种背离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，最终将导致环境退化。将广泛传播项目成果，以增加重点牧民社区获得清洁水和医疗保健的机会。该项目还将产生有助于了解与美国和全球牧场主相关的放牧做法的弹性的数据，以及教材(例如计算机模拟、角色扮演棋盘游戏)，以教育美国学生有关系统思维、弹性和保护的知识。教学材料将通过内布拉斯加大学的教学活动和网站免费提供。该项目将记录传统土地利用系统在半干旱地区的弹性，以及它们在日益全球化的世界中面临的变化，天气模式不断变化。目前，当地生态系统面临土地退化和野生动物丧失，而水媒疾病和粮食不安全的增加威胁着牧民社区。调查人员假设，目前的发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境环境的交集代表着一种背离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，将导致大范围的环境退化。对该区域考古学和古生态的审查表明，游牧社会与自然环境之间存在长期耦合，但目前的人种学和健康指标表明，社会生态系统存在压力。该项目的总体目标是整合跨越10ka的环境和人类数据，以深入了解该系统及其随时间变化的适应能力。这将通过将过去几十年来正在进行的古生态、考古和人种学研究的数据与旨在了解社会-生态相互作用及其对现代社区的影响的新研究相结合来实现。考古研究、历史航空图像和遥感数据将提供土地利用模式和生态随时间推移的纵向视角。人种学访谈将有助于描述传统的土地利用和养护做法及其最近的变化，而对健康、营养、水质、水和粮食不安全、人和牲畜能量学以及当代土地覆盖的调查将为了解最近事态发展的影响提供基线。最后，生成性建模将有助于在当代观察和历史替代之间建立联系，并允许预测当前的趋势。结果将为与利益相关者(例如牧民、土地管理者、非政府组织)进行沟通提供重要工具，并将与了解全球半干旱地区牧民/放牧耦合自然人类系统的复杂相互作用有关。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Changing weather patterns and globalization affect the long-term sustainability of communities. Arid and semi-arid grasslands and ranching/herding communities are particularly affected by uncertainty regarding the availability of water, food, forage, and grazing land. This research project investigates long term perspectives on water security, food security, habitat loss, cultural change, and land management among pastoralists experiencing change in a rangeland ecosystem. Using archaeological, historical aerial imagery, remote sensing techniques, ethnography, and generative modeling, this project will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of complex interactions within pastoralist/grazing socio-environmental systems in semi-arid lands globally. It will test the hypothesis that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will ultimately lead to environmental degradation. Project results will be widely disseminated to increase access to clean water and healthcare among the focal pastoralist community. The project will also produce data that is useful for understanding the resiliency of grazing practices relevant to cattle-ranchers in the United States and globally, and teaching materials (e.g. computer simulations, a roleplaying boardgame) to educate US students about systems thinking, resiliency, and conservation. Teaching materials will be made available for free through University of Nebraska teaching initiatives and websites.This project will document the resiliency of traditional land use systems in semi-arid lands and the changes they face in an increasingly globalized world with shifting weather patterns. Currently, the local ecosystem faces land degradation and loss of wildlife, while increases in waterborne illness and food insecurity threaten the pastoralist community. The investigators hypothesize that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will lead to widespread environmental degradation. Reviews of the archaeology and paleoecology of the region indicate a long-term coupling between pastoralist societies and the natural environment, yet current ethnographic and health indicators suggest stress in the socio-ecological system. The overall project aim is to integrate environmental and human data spanning 10ka to gain a deep perspective on the system and its adaptive capacity through time. This will be accomplished by merging data from ongoing paleoecological, archaeological, and ethnographic research over the last several decades with new research targeted at understanding social-ecological interactions and their implications for the modern community. Archaeological study, historic aerial imagery, and remote sensing data will provide a longitudinal perspective onto land use patterns and ecology through time. Ethnographic interviews will help to characterize traditional land use and conservation practices and their recent changes, while investigations of health, nutrition, water quality, water and food insecurity, human and livestock energetics, and contemporary land cover will provide a baseline for understanding the impacts of recent developments. Finally, generative modeling will help to establish linkages between contemporary observations and historic proxies and allow projection of current trends forward. Results will provide an important tool for communicating with stakeholders (e.g. pastoralists, land managers, NGOs) and will have relevance for understanding the complex interactions of pastoralist/grazing coupled natural human systems in semi-arid lands globallyThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.