CNH2-S: Long Term Perspectives on Water Security, Food Security, and Land Management Among Pastoralists Experiencing Change

不断变化的天气模式和全球化影响着社区的长期可持续性。干旱和半干旱草原以及牧场/放牧社区尤其受到水、食物、饲料和牧场供应不确定性的影响。本研究项目从长期角度探讨了牧区生态系统变化中的牧民对水安全、粮食安全、栖息地丧失、文化变迁和土地管理的看法。利用考古、历史航空图像、遥感技术、民族志和生成模型，该项目将有助于更细致地了解全球半干旱地区牧民/放牧社会环境系统内复杂的相互作用。它将检验这样一种假设，即目前发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境情况的交集是一种偏离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，最终将导致环境退化。项目成果将广泛传播，以增加重点牧民社区获得清洁水和保健的机会。该项目还将提供有助于了解与美国和全球牧场主相关的放牧实践弹性的数据，以及用于教育美国学生关于系统思维、弹性和保护的教材（例如计算机模拟、角色扮演棋盘游戏）。教材将通过内布拉斯加大学的教学计划和网站免费提供。该项目将记录半干旱地区传统土地利用系统的复原力，以及它们在日益全球化、气候模式不断变化的世界中所面临的变化。目前，当地生态系统面临着土地退化和野生动物丧失的问题，而水传播疾病的增加和粮食不安全威胁着牧民社区。研究人员假设，目前发展、土地管理和不断变化的环境环境的交集代表了一种偏离长期趋势的近期现象，如果不加以控制，将导致广泛的环境退化。对该地区考古学和古生态学的回顾表明，游牧社会与自然环境之间存在长期耦合，但目前的民族志和健康指标表明，社会生态系统存在压力。整个项目的目标是整合跨越10ka的环境和人类数据，以深入了解系统及其随时间的适应能力。这将通过将过去几十年来正在进行的古生态学、考古学和人种学研究的数据与旨在理解社会-生态相互作用及其对现代社区的影响的新研究相结合来完成。考古研究、历史航拍图像和遥感数据将提供土地利用模式和生态随时间变化的纵向视角。人种学访谈将有助于描述传统土地利用和保护做法及其最近变化的特点，而对健康、营养、水质、水和粮食不安全、人类和牲畜能量学以及当代土地覆盖的调查将为了解最近发展的影响提供基线。最后，生成模型将有助于建立当代观测和历史代理之间的联系，并允许预测当前的未来趋势。研究结果将为与利益相关者（如牧民、土地管理者、非政府组织）沟通提供重要工具，并将有助于理解全球半干旱土地上牧民/放牧耦合自然人类系统的复杂相互作用。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Changing weather patterns and globalization affect the long-term sustainability of communities. Arid and semi-arid grasslands and ranching/herding communities are particularly affected by uncertainty regarding the availability of water, food, forage, and grazing land. This research project investigates long term perspectives on water security, food security, habitat loss, cultural change, and land management among pastoralists experiencing change in a rangeland ecosystem. Using archaeological, historical aerial imagery, remote sensing techniques, ethnography, and generative modeling, this project will contribute to a more nuanced understanding of complex interactions within pastoralist/grazing socio-environmental systems in semi-arid lands globally. It will test the hypothesis that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will ultimately lead to environmental degradation. Project results will be widely disseminated to increase access to clean water and healthcare among the focal pastoralist community. The project will also produce data that is useful for understanding the resiliency of grazing practices relevant to cattle-ranchers in the United States and globally, and teaching materials (e.g. computer simulations, a roleplaying boardgame) to educate US students about systems thinking, resiliency, and conservation. Teaching materials will be made available for free through University of Nebraska teaching initiatives and websites.This project will document the resiliency of traditional land use systems in semi-arid lands and the changes they face in an increasingly globalized world with shifting weather patterns. Currently, the local ecosystem faces land degradation and loss of wildlife, while increases in waterborne illness and food insecurity threaten the pastoralist community. The investigators hypothesize that the current intersection of development, land management, and changing environmental circumstances represents a recent phenomenon that deviates from long-term trends and if left unchecked will lead to widespread environmental degradation. Reviews of the archaeology and paleoecology of the region indicate a long-term coupling between pastoralist societies and the natural environment, yet current ethnographic and health indicators suggest stress in the socio-ecological system. The overall project aim is to integrate environmental and human data spanning 10ka to gain a deep perspective on the system and its adaptive capacity through time. This will be accomplished by merging data from ongoing paleoecological, archaeological, and ethnographic research over the last several decades with new research targeted at understanding social-ecological interactions and their implications for the modern community. Archaeological study, historic aerial imagery, and remote sensing data will provide a longitudinal perspective onto land use patterns and ecology through time. Ethnographic interviews will help to characterize traditional land use and conservation practices and their recent changes, while investigations of health, nutrition, water quality, water and food insecurity, human and livestock energetics, and contemporary land cover will provide a baseline for understanding the impacts of recent developments. Finally, generative modeling will help to establish linkages between contemporary observations and historic proxies and allow projection of current trends forward. Results will provide an important tool for communicating with stakeholders (e.g. pastoralists, land managers, NGOs) and will have relevance for understanding the complex interactions of pastoralist/grazing coupled natural human systems in semi-arid lands globallyThis award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.