Impacts of Extreme Events: A Systematic Analysis of Individual Travel Choice Decision

项目摘要：极端事件的影响：个人旅行选择的系统分析2001年9月11日(9/11)的悲剧事件对曼哈顿下城和纽约大都市区产生了深远而不可想象的影响。9/11事件改变了人们对交通工具安全性的看法，正在影响个人对工作和居住方式和地点的选择，以及企业做出区位决策的方式。9·11事件也给交通和城市规划者带来了巨大的挑战，因为文献中没有关于如何在此类事件发生后解决出行和城市规划问题的指导方针。这项调查的目的是：(A)评估作为对9/11悲剧的反应而发生的行为变化；(B)开始为研究极端事件对旅行行为的影响奠定理论和经验基础。除其他外，这种知识将使：(A)交通机构和市政当局能够制定旨在恢复安全观念的政策；(B)新一代规划者能够了解极端事件对个人选择的动态影响。这项研究的一个贡献将是为合理规划过程所需的旅行模型开发新的建模和数据评估方法。这项研究将有助于回答有关曼哈顿下城以及任何其他受极端事件影响的城市地区的未来的不断发展的问题。该项目预计将为进一步研究极端事件对乘客和商务地点选择行为的影响奠定理论和经验基础。这一知识对于必须处理极端事件后果的交通机构和市政当局至关重要。更具体地说，该项目将导致：(A)更好地了解暂时性行为影响和加速恢复的最佳方式；(B)基于对选择过程更现实的描述而改进的政策制定过程；(C)能够联合考虑替代方案间错误结构、规模差异、未观察到的异质性、状态依赖和状态依赖中的异质性的综合理论行为决策框架。

PROJECT ABSTRACT: IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL TRAVEL CHOICE DECISIONSThe tragic events of September 11th, 2001 (9/11) have had a profound and unimaginable impact on lower Manhattan, and the New York City metropolitan region. The changing perception of the safety of the transportation modes as a result of 9/11 is impacting the way in which the individuals make choices of mode and place of work and residence, and the way in which businesses make location decisions. 9/11 has also provided a monumental challenge to transportation and city planners because there are no guidelines in the literature on how to address travel and urban planning issues after such an event occurs. The objectives of this investigation are: (a) to assess the behavioral changes that have taken place as a response to the 9/11 tragedy; and (b) to begin laying the theoretical and empirical foundation for the study of the impacts of extreme events upon travel behavior. Among other things, this knowledge would enable: (a) transportation agencies and municipalities to devise policies aimed at restoring the perception of safety; and (b) a new generation of planners to understand the dynamic impacts of extreme events on individual choices. A contribution of this study will be the development of new approaches to modeling and data assessment for travel models required by a rational planning process. The research will assist in answering developing questions concerning the future of lower Manhattan, as well as any other urban areas affected by extreme eventsThis project is expected to design and structure the theoretical and empirical foundations for the advanced study of the impacts of extreme events upon passenger and business location choice behavior. This knowledge is of the utmost importance to transportation agencies and municipalities that have to deal with the aftermath of extreme events. More specifically, this project will lead to: (a) a better understanding of the transient behavioral effects and best ways to speed up recovery; (b) an enhanced policy making process based on more realistic depictions of choice processes; and (c) an integrated theoretical behavioral decision-making framework able to jointly consider the role of inter-alternative error structure, scale difference, unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and heterogeneity in state dependence.