Impacts of Extreme Events: A Systematic Analysis of Individual Travel Choice Decision

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PROJECT ABSTRACT: IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL TRAVEL CHOICE DECISIONSThe tragic events of September 11th, 2001 (9/11) have had a profound and unimaginable impact on lower Manhattan, and the New York City metropolitan region. The changing perception of the safety of the transportation modes as a result of 9/11 is impacting the way in which the individuals make choices of mode and place of work and residence, and the way in which businesses make location decisions. 9/11 has also provided a monumental challenge to transportation and city planners because there are no guidelines in the literature on how to address travel and urban planning issues after such an event occurs. The objectives of this investigation are: (a) to assess the behavioral changes that have taken place as a response to the 9/11 tragedy; and (b) to begin laying the theoretical and empirical foundation for the study of the impacts of extreme events upon travel behavior. Among other things, this knowledge would enable: (a) transportation agencies and municipalities to devise policies aimed at restoring the perception of safety; and (b) a new generation of planners to understand the dynamic impacts of extreme events on individual choices. A contribution of this study will be the development of new approaches to modeling and data assessment for travel models required by a rational planning process. The research will assist in answering developing questions concerning the future of lower Manhattan, as well as any other urban areas affected by extreme eventsThis project is expected to design and structure the theoretical and empirical foundations for the advanced study of the impacts of extreme events upon passenger and business location choice behavior. This knowledge is of the utmost importance to transportation agencies and municipalities that have to deal with the aftermath of extreme events. More specifically, this project will lead to: (a) a better understanding of the transient behavioral effects and best ways to speed up recovery; (b) an enhanced policy making process based on more realistic depictions of choice processes; and (c) an integrated theoretical behavioral decision-making framework able to jointly consider the role of inter-alternative error structure, scale difference, unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and heterogeneity in state dependence.