Impacts of Extreme Events: A Systematic Analysis of Individual Travel Choice Decision

极端事件的影响：个人出行选择决策的系统分析

• 批准号: 0301391
• 负责人: Jose Holguin-Veras
• 金额: $ 23.02万
• 依托单位: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2003-09-01 至 2007-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0301391&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Impacts; Extreme; Events; Systematic; Analysis

PROJECT ABSTRACT: IMPACTS OF EXTREME EVENTS: A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF INDIVIDUAL TRAVEL CHOICE DECISIONSThe tragic events of September 11th, 2001 (9/11) have had a profound and unimaginable impact on lower Manhattan, and the New York City metropolitan region. The changing perception of the safety of the transportation modes as a result of 9/11 is impacting the way in which the individuals make choices of mode and place of work and residence, and the way in which businesses make location decisions. 9/11 has also provided a monumental challenge to transportation and city planners because there are no guidelines in the literature on how to address travel and urban planning issues after such an event occurs. The objectives of this investigation are: (a) to assess the behavioral changes that have taken place as a response to the 9/11 tragedy; and (b) to begin laying the theoretical and empirical foundation for the study of the impacts of extreme events upon travel behavior. Among other things, this knowledge would enable: (a) transportation agencies and municipalities to devise policies aimed at restoring the perception of safety; and (b) a new generation of planners to understand the dynamic impacts of extreme events on individual choices. A contribution of this study will be the development of new approaches to modeling and data assessment for travel models required by a rational planning process. The research will assist in answering developing questions concerning the future of lower Manhattan, as well as any other urban areas affected by extreme eventsThis project is expected to design and structure the theoretical and empirical foundations for the advanced study of the impacts of extreme events upon passenger and business location choice behavior. This knowledge is of the utmost importance to transportation agencies and municipalities that have to deal with the aftermath of extreme events. More specifically, this project will lead to: (a) a better understanding of the transient behavioral effects and best ways to speed up recovery; (b) an enhanced policy making process based on more realistic depictions of choice processes; and (c) an integrated theoretical behavioral decision-making framework able to jointly consider the role of inter-alternative error structure, scale difference, unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and heterogeneity in state dependence.

项目摘要：极端事件的影响：2001年9月11日（9/11）的悲剧性事件对曼哈顿下城和纽约市大都市区产生了深远而难以想象的影响。由于9/11事件，人们对交通方式安全性的看法发生了变化，这影响了个人选择交通方式、工作地点和居住地的方式，也影响了企业做出选址决定的方式。9/11事件也给交通和城市规划者带来了巨大的挑战，因为文献中没有关于如何在此类事件发生后解决旅行和城市规划问题的指导方针。本次调查的目的是：（a）评估作为对9/11悲剧的反应而发生的行为变化;（B）开始为研究极端事件对旅行行为的影响奠定理论和经验基础。除其他外，这种知识将使：（a）运输机构和市政当局能够制定旨在恢复安全感的政策;（B）新一代规划人员能够了解极端事件对个人选择的动态影响。这项研究的贡献将是开发新的方法来建模和数据评估所需的合理规划过程中的旅游模型。该研究将有助于回答发展中的问题，未来的曼哈顿，以及任何其他城市地区的极端事件的影响，该项目预计将设计和结构的理论和实证基础，为先进的研究极端事件对乘客和商业选址行为的影响。这些知识对于必须处理极端事件后果的交通机构和市政当局至关重要。更具体地说，这一项目将导致：（a）更好地了解暂时的行为影响和加速恢复的最佳途径;（B）根据更现实的选择过程的判断加强决策过程;以及（c）一个综合的理论行为决策框架，该框架能够共同考虑替代间误差结构、尺度差异、未观察到的异质性，状态依赖和状态依赖中的异质性。