Decision Technologies for Managing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

关键的基础设施系统提供对国家及其公民的经济和福祉至关重要的服务。正如最近提交给美国国会的一份报告所记载的那样，至关重要的是，这些服务不能因为恐怖主义等故意行为、地震等自然或随机事件、设计缺陷或人为错误而退化。然而，基础设施系统和管理它们的组织现在被认为是高度耦合系统的组成部分，为了提供关键服务，这些系统越来越依赖于彼此。研究的目的是提高对相互依赖的关键基础设施系统管理的理解和支持。当由于地理邻近或共享操作，对一个基础设施系统的影响也会对一个或多个其他基础设施系统产生影响时，基础设施相互依赖就会发生。研究的特别重点是开发可用于减轻或应对有能力影响相互依存的关键基础设施系统的事件的技术，并为决策者提供操纵这些模型的手段，以减轻或应对这些事件。研究中开发的模型将嵌入到基于计算机的决策辅助工具中。这种以计算机为基础的决策支助的目的是协助决策者减少因中断而造成的预期服务损失，并在实际发生服务损失时更快地恢复服务。这项研究的更广泛影响将提高社会抵御可能破坏公民健康、安全和经济福利所需服务提供的事件的影响和应对能力。关键基础设施的管理人员和应急响应官员将能够模拟不同的事件情景，并评估它们对关键基础设施系统提供的服务的影响。有了这些知识，就可以制定和评估缓解和备灾战略，以防止紧急情况升级为灾难，并在灾难确实发生时确保迅速恢复关键服务。

Critical infrastructure systems provide services that are essential to both the economy and well-being of nations and their citizens. As documented in a recent report to the U.S. Congress, it is of vital importance that these services not be degraded, whether by willful acts such as terrorism or by natural or random events such as earthquakes, design flaws or human error. Yet infrastructure systems and the organizations that manage them are now recognized as components of highly-coupled systems that increasingly rely on one another in order to deliver key services.The objective of the research is to improve understanding of and support for the management of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Infrastructure interdependence occurs when, due to either geographical proximity or shared operations, an impact on one infrastructure system is also an impact on one or more other infrastructure systems. The particular focus of the research is on developing techniques that can be used either to mitigate against or respond to events that have the capability if impacting interdependent critical infrastructure systems and to provide decision makers with means of manipulating these models for purposes of mitigation or response. The models developed in the research will be embedded in computer-based decision aids. Such computer-based decision support is intended to assist decision makers in reducing expected loss of service due to disruption and in restoring service more quickly if loss of service actually occurs.The broader impacts of the research will improve society's ability to withstand the impact of and respond to events that can disrupt the provision of services that are required for the health, safety and economic well being of the citizenry. Managers of critical infrastructures and emergency response officials will be able to model different event scenarios and assess their impact on the services provided by critical infrastructure systems. With this knowledge, mitigation and preparedness strategies can be formulated and evaluated for their ability to prevent an emergency from escalating into a disaster and, if a disaster does occur, ensure a rapid restoration of critical services.