Decision Technologies for Managing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

关键基础设施系统提供对各国及其公民的经济和福祉都至关重要的服务。正如最近提交给美国国会的一份报告所述，至关重要的是，这些服务不能因恐怖主义等故意行为或地震、设计缺陷或人为错误等自然或随机事件而降级。然而，基础设施系统和管理它们的组织现在被认为是高度耦合的系统的组成部分，为了提供关键服务，这些系统越来越依赖于彼此。研究的目标是提高对相互依赖的关键基础设施系统管理的理解和支持。当由于地理位置接近或共享业务，对一个基础设施系统的影响也影响到一个或多个其他基础设施系统时，就会发生基础设施相互依赖。研究的重点是开发可用于缓解或应对有能力影响相互依存的关键基础设施系统的事件的技术，并为决策者提供为缓解或应对目的而操纵这些模型的手段。研究中开发的模型将嵌入到基于计算机的决策辅助工具中。这种基于计算机的决策支持旨在帮助决策者减少因服务中断而预期的服务损失，并在实际发生服务中断时更快地恢复服务。研究的更广泛影响将提高社会抵御可能扰乱公民健康、安全和经济福祉所需服务的提供的影响和应对的能力。关键基础设施的管理人员和应急官员将能够模拟不同的事件情景，并评估其对关键基础设施系统提供的服务的影响。有了这些知识，就可以制定和评估缓解和备灾战略，以确保其防止紧急情况升级为灾难的能力，并在发生灾难时确保迅速恢复关键服务。

Critical infrastructure systems provide services that are essential to both the economy and well-being of nations and their citizens. As documented in a recent report to the U.S. Congress, it is of vital importance that these services not be degraded, whether by willful acts such as terrorism or by natural or random events such as earthquakes, design flaws or human error. Yet infrastructure systems and the organizations that manage them are now recognized as components of highly-coupled systems that increasingly rely on one another in order to deliver key services.The objective of the research is to improve understanding of and support for the management of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Infrastructure interdependence occurs when, due to either geographical proximity or shared operations, an impact on one infrastructure system is also an impact on one or more other infrastructure systems. The particular focus of the research is on developing techniques that can be used either to mitigate against or respond to events that have the capability if impacting interdependent critical infrastructure systems and to provide decision makers with means of manipulating these models for purposes of mitigation or response. The models developed in the research will be embedded in computer-based decision aids. Such computer-based decision support is intended to assist decision makers in reducing expected loss of service due to disruption and in restoring service more quickly if loss of service actually occurs.The broader impacts of the research will improve society's ability to withstand the impact of and respond to events that can disrupt the provision of services that are required for the health, safety and economic well being of the citizenry. Managers of critical infrastructures and emergency response officials will be able to model different event scenarios and assess their impact on the services provided by critical infrastructure systems. With this knowledge, mitigation and preparedness strategies can be formulated and evaluated for their ability to prevent an emergency from escalating into a disaster and, if a disaster does occur, ensure a rapid restoration of critical services.