Decision Technologies for Managing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies

关键基础设施系统提供对国家及其公民的经济和福祉至关重要的服务。正如最近提交给美国国会的一份报告所述，至关重要的是，无论是由于恐怖主义等故意行为，还是由于地震、设计缺陷或人为错误等自然或随机事件，这些服务的质量都不会降低。然而，基础设施系统和管理它们的组织现在被认为是高度耦合系统的组成部分，为了提供关键服务，这些系统越来越相互依赖。这项研究的目的是增进对相互依赖的关键基础设施系统管理的理解和支持。当由于地理位置接近或共享运营而对一个基础设施系统的影响也会对一个或多个其他基础设施系统产生影响时，就会出现基础设施相互依赖。该研究的特别重点是开发可用于减轻或响应有能力影响相互依赖的关键基础设施系统的事件的技术，并为决策者提供操纵这些模型以达到缓解或响应目的的方法。研究中开发的模型将嵌入基于计算机的决策辅助工具中。这种基于计算机的决策支持旨在帮助决策者减少由于服务中断而导致的预期服务损失，并在实际发生服务损失时更快地恢复服务。该研究的更广泛影响将提高社会承受和响应可能扰乱公民健康、安全和经济福祉所需服务提供的事件影响的能力。 关键基础设施的管理者和应急响应官员将能够对不同的事件场景进行建模，并评估其对关键基础设施系统提供的服务的影响。 有了这些知识，就可以制定和评估缓解和准备策略，以防止紧急情况升级为灾难，并且在灾难确实发生时确保关键服务的快速恢复。

Critical infrastructure systems provide services that are essential to both the economy and well-being of nations and their citizens. As documented in a recent report to the U.S. Congress, it is of vital importance that these services not be degraded, whether by willful acts such as terrorism or by natural or random events such as earthquakes, design flaws or human error. Yet infrastructure systems and the organizations that manage them are now recognized as components of highly-coupled systems that increasingly rely on one another in order to deliver key services.The objective of the research is to improve understanding of and support for the management of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Infrastructure interdependence occurs when, due to either geographical proximity or shared operations, an impact on one infrastructure system is also an impact on one or more other infrastructure systems. The particular focus of the research is on developing techniques that can be used either to mitigate against or respond to events that have the capability if impacting interdependent critical infrastructure systems and to provide decision makers with means of manipulating these models for purposes of mitigation or response. The models developed in the research will be embedded in computer-based decision aids. Such computer-based decision support is intended to assist decision makers in reducing expected loss of service due to disruption and in restoring service more quickly if loss of service actually occurs.The broader impacts of the research will improve society's ability to withstand the impact of and respond to events that can disrupt the provision of services that are required for the health, safety and economic well being of the citizenry. Managers of critical infrastructures and emergency response officials will be able to model different event scenarios and assess their impact on the services provided by critical infrastructure systems. With this knowledge, mitigation and preparedness strategies can be formulated and evaluated for their ability to prevent an emergency from escalating into a disaster and, if a disaster does occur, ensure a rapid restoration of critical services.