Doctoral Dissertation Research: Settlement and Subsistence in the Western Anasazi Core Area: Development and Assessment of a Risk Response Model

在James L. Boone和Bruce Huckell的指导下，Karl Benedict将整合考古、历史气候、古气候、环境和古环境数据，以评估人类对生存风险的反应。特别是，他将研究在一个多变的环境中与生存相关的活动地点的变化模式，作为公元600年至1150年间亚利桑那州东北部农民-采集者混合经济的一部分。计划中的研究项目利用了几个长期科学和研究项目的现有数据，包括：1)来自黑台地和长屋谷考古项目的考古数据；2)通过noaa美国历史气候学网络提供的现代和历史气候数据；3)美国亚利桑那大学西南古气候学项目树木年轮研究实验室和NOAA古气候学项目维护的国际树木年轮数据库提供的史前气候数据；4)美国地质勘探局生物资源司支持的亚利桑那GAP项目收集的现代环境数据；5)通过美国地质勘探局提供的额外地理数据集。这些现代、历史和史前环境数据将被整合到一个地理信息系统中，该系统采用最近开发和广泛测试的气象插值方法，为黑台地北部和邻近的长屋谷研究区域产生高分辨率（空间和时间）的局部气候条件模型。然后，这个局部气候模型将与植被分布信息相结合，以确定研究区域内代表该区域变化范围内高或低变率条件的区域。然后，将考古生存活动地点的分布与景观上高变异性和低变异性地点的分布进行比较，以通过将生存活动定位在生产力不确定性最小化、同时不会显著降低长期平均生产力的地点，来检验与人类对生存不确定性的反应有关的假设。总的来说，计划中的研究项目提供了一种明确的方法来发展和检验从行为生态学的决策模型中发展出来的假设。这些模型不仅适用于史前决策，也适用于人类对经济决策中风险和不确定性的反应的一般模型。总的来说，该项目将建立在广泛的考古和环境研究的基础上，通过将多个最近的数据集整合到一个区域内的局部环境变化的详细图片中，该区域有一个完整且一致的考古数据汇编，可以测试有关人类对环境条件反应的假设。

Under the supervision of James L. Boone and Bruce Huckell, Karl Benedict will integrate archaeological, historic climate, paleoclimate, environmental, and paleoenvironmental data in an assessment of human response to subsistence risk. In particular, he will examine changing patterns in subsistence-related activity locations within a variable environment as a part of the mixed farmer-forager economy of Northeastern Arizona between A.D. 600 and 1150. The planned research program utilizes existing data from several long-term science and research programs including: 1) archaeological data from the Black Mesa and Long House Valley Archaeological Projects; 2) modern and historic climate data made available through the NOAAis United States Historic Climatology Network; 3) prehistoric climate data available from the Laboratory of Tree Ring Research Southwest Paleoclimatology Program at the University of Arizona and the International Tree Ring Database maintained by the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program; 4) modern environmental data collected by the Arizona GAP Project with support from the USGS Biological Resources Division; and 5) additional physiographic datasets made available through the USGS. These modern, historic and prehistoric environmental data will be integrated within a Geographic Information System employing recently developed and extensively tested meteorological interpolation methods to produce a high resolution (both spatially and temporally) model of localized climate conditions for northern Black Mesa and the adjacent Long House Valley study areas. This model of localized climate will then be integrated with vegetation distribution information to identify areas within the study area that represent high- or low-variability conditions within the range of variation for the region. The distribution of archaeological subsistence activity locations will then be compared to the distribution of high- and low-variability locations on the landscape to test hypotheses related to human response to subsistence uncertainty through the positioning of subsistence activities at locations that minimize uncertainty in productivity while also not significantly reducing long-term mean productivity.In general, the planned research program provides an explicit means for developing and testing hypotheses developed from models of decision-making derived from behavioral ecology. These models have potential applicability not only to prehistoric decision-making but also to general models of human response to risk and uncertainty in economic decision-making. Overall, this project will build upon the extensive archaeological and environmental research that has proceeded it through the integration of multiple recent datasets into a detailed picture of localized environmental variability within an area for which there is a well- and consistently-documented assemblage of archaeological data with which hypotheses relating human response to environmental conditions may be tested.