Regional Model Studies of African Wave Disturbances and Sahel Climate Variability, Part II

该基金支持的研究将产生一套新的气候分析，通过使用PI的最新版本的区域气候模型（RM），将NCEP重新分析缩小到西非的0.5网格。20个季节的RM产品将被系统地验证和评估，雨季和干旱复合材料之间的差异将被记录。将分析每个模拟夏季的非洲波扰动（AWD）特征、周期性、振幅、发生频率和相关降水模式，并指出多雨和干旱条件之间的差异。将确定从行星到区域尺度的相关气候机制，以增加我们对它们如何影响萨赫勒季节降雨年际变化的了解。设计了一个实验来评价降尺度技术对气候特征空间定义的改进。将测试轻推和周期性重新初始化的相对优势。该项目将以如此高的水平分辨率提供西非夏季气候的第一个三维气候学，并将为awd的特征和其他重要的天气特征提供新的见解。减轻不利气候事件的负面社会影响的潜力将通过验证实验性季节预测来实现，这些预测是通过GISS GCM季节性预测驱动RM来实现的。更广泛的影响：这些pi是由美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心支持的纽约市大都会区研究计划（NYCRI）外展计划的科学家导师候选人。该项目将为来自大纽约地区机构的大学和高中学生和教师团队提供丰富的研究经验。NYCRI夏季研究所计划于2003年6月启动。pi将帮助学生了解最前沿的研究，让他们有机会亲身体验专业的科学研究。教师将根据他们的暑期研究制定学习单元，这些研究将在学年期间的课程中实施，从而使最终受益于与赞助研究相关的推广工作的学生人数增加。

This grant supports research that will produce a new set of climate analyses by downscaling NCEP reanalyzes to a 0.5 grid over West Africa with the latest version of the PI's Regional Climate Model (RM). Twenty seasons of the RM product will be systematically validated and evaluated and differences between rainy and drought composites will be documented. African Wave Disturbances (AWD) characteristics, periodicities, amplitudes, frequency of occurrence and associated precipitation patterns will be analyzed for each simulated summer and differences between rainy and dry conditions noted. Relevant climate mechanisms, from planetary to regional scales will be identified to increase our understanding of how they influence the interannual variability of Sahel seasonal rainfall. An experiment has been designed to evaluate the improvements in the spatial definition of climate features achieved by the downscaling technique. The relative advantages of nudging and periodic reinitialization will be tested. The project will provide the first 3-D climatology of the West African summer climate at such a high horizontal resolution and will offer new insights into the characteristics of AWDs, and other important synoptic features. The potential to mitigate the negative social impacts of adverse climate events will be pursued by validating experimental seasonal hindcasts, made by driving the RM with GISS GCM seasonal predictions. Broader Impacts: The PIs are scientist mentor candidates in a New York City Metropolitan Area Research Initiative (NYCRI) outreach program supported by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The project will provide research enrichment experiences for teams of college and high school students and teachers from institutions in the Greater New York Region. The NYCRI Summer Research Institute is scheduled to begin in June 2003. The PIs will help introduce students to cutting edge research, giving them a hands-on opportunity to experience professional scientific research. The teachers would formulate learning units, based on their summer research, which will be implemented in their courses during the academic year, thereby multiplying the number of students who eventually benefit from the outreach effort connected with the sponsored research.