Collaborative Research:Integration of Decadal Climate Predictions, Ecological and Human Decision-Making Models to Support Climate-Resilient Agriculture in the Argentine Pampas

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The multi-faceted aspects of climate variability and climate change affect a variety of societal sectors, regions and issues, including sustainable development, poverty mitigation and food security. Decision makers at many levels-households, communities, regions and countries-will increasingly need credible information that combines state-of-the-art climate science with an integrative understanding of the dynamics of affected natural/human systems. The overarching goal of this project is to enhance society's capacity to act on regional information, e.g. decadal predictions. In particular, the project seeks to facilitate adaptation to a shifting climate and inform resilient decision-making in agricultural production - a human activity that is critically vulnerable to climate. The geographic focus is the Pampas of central eastern Argentina, one of the main cereal and oilseed producing regions in the world.Well-informed adaptation to climate variability and change requires the capacity to 'translate' knowledge of decadal climate predictions into decision-relevant, sector-specific information and knowledge that is consistent with existing needs, procedures and decision protocols. To enhance the match between capabilities and expectations of decadal climate predictions, a sustained, iterative dialogue is implemented between climate scientists and multiple agricultural stakeholders. The goals of this dialogue are twofold: (i) to understand decision makers' information needs, beliefs, values and priorities, as well as the constraints under which they operate, and (ii) to provide useful feedback to the climate modeling community that will guide future model development and communication. As part of the project modern, rigorous statistical approaches will be applied to investigation of extreme climate events responsible for most societal impacts. This activity has significant broader impacts: understanding the link between climate variability and decision-making is a fundamental issue that affects resource management in regions and sectors throughout the world. The project will provide an integrated analysis of responses to decadal climate predictions in agriculture - a prevalent, real-world natural/human system that plays a central role in global food production, food security and energy production. Project outcomes include guidance and best practices for decision-makers seeking to adapt to climate variability. The collaboration with scientists in Argentina will strengthen the ability of U.S. institutions and investigators to engage in integrative climate and natural/human systems science with a global scope and perspective. The active involvement of climate information producers and decision-makers will enhance considerably the likelihood of research outputs being incorporated into operational practice