Regional Assessment of the Effect of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay-Implication for Adoption of Climate Forecasts

摘要ATM-9711629波德斯塔，迈阿密吉列尔莫大学ATM-9726491 O‘Brien，詹姆斯·佛罗里达州立大学ATM-9726430琼斯，詹姆斯·W·佛罗里达大学标题：与ENSO有关的气候变化对阿根廷和乌拉圭农业部门影响的区域评估--采用气候预测的影响。这是一项多学科的建议，旨在将气候、作物和决策模型系统联系起来，以了解年际气候变异性、作物生产力和ENSO相关气候预报的价值与阿根廷和乌拉圭农业的相互作用。蒙特卡罗模拟技术将被用来建立作物对气候变化的响应的概率分布。将使用调查方法来了解决策者的看法。这项研究将试图回答一个重要的问题，即最近在气候预测技术方面取得的进展对农学家有多大帮助。这笔赠款的结果将在评估气候预测改进的价值方面具有很大的实用价值。

ABSTRACT ATM- 9711629 Podesta, Guillermo University of Miami ATM-9726491 O'Brien, James Florida State University ATM-9726430 JONES, James W. University of Florida TITLE: Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay- Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts. This is a multidisciplinary proposal to link a system of climate, crop and decision models in order to understand the interactions of interannual climate variability, crop productivity and the value of ENSO-related climate forecasts to the agriculture of Argentina and Uruguay. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will be utilized to create probability distribution of crop response to climate variability. Survey methods will be used to understand the perceptions of the decision makers. This research will try to answer the important question of how useful the recent gains in climate prediction skills are and can be to the agriculturists. The results from this grant will be of great practical utility in assessing the value of improvements in climate prediction.