Regional Assessment of the Effect of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay-Implication for Adoption of Climate Forecasts

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ABSTRACT ATM- 9711629 Podesta, Guillermo University of Miami ATM-9726491 O'Brien, James Florida State University ATM-9726430 JONES, James W. University of Florida TITLE: Regional Assessment of the Effects of ENSO-Related Climate Variability on the Agricultural Sector of Argentina and Uruguay- Implications for Adoption of Climate Forecasts. This is a multidisciplinary proposal to link a system of climate, crop and decision models in order to understand the interactions of interannual climate variability, crop productivity and the value of ENSO-related climate forecasts to the agriculture of Argentina and Uruguay. Monte Carlo simulation techniques will be utilized to create probability distribution of crop response to climate variability. Survey methods will be used to understand the perceptions of the decision makers. This research will try to answer the important question of how useful the recent gains in climate prediction skills are and can be to the agriculturists. The results from this grant will be of great practical utility in assessing the value of improvements in climate prediction.