EID: Collaborative Research: The Interplay of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Epidemiological Dynamics: Cholera as a Case Study

EID：合作研究：流行病学动态中外在因素和内在因素的相互作用：以霍乱为例

• 批准号: 0430120
• 负责人: Mercedes Pascual
• 金额: $ 47.76万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0430120&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EID; Collaborative; Research; Interplay; Extrinsic

The outbreaks of many infectious diseases display pronounced seasonal and interannual (year to year) variation. To date, investigations of the role of environmental factors including climatic ones, have not significantly progressed beyond simple correlative analyses. This project develops quantitative approaches to address the role of climate and other environmental factors in the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those with temporary (short-lived) immunity and free-living infectious stages. The work focuses on cholera in its main endemic region (NE India and Bangladesh), but also other regions of Asia (Vietnam) and Africa (Mozambique). Its ultimate aim is to develop quantitative scenarios for cholera under climate change, by combining results on disease-environmental couplings with climate models.The applicability of the developed quantitative approaches to other diseases (particularly malaria and other vector borne pathogens) will be examined.The global climate is changing. The most likely avenues for impacts on disease dynamics are through concomitant changes in the seasonal environmental variables that drive transmission, and through changes in the dominant (interannual) modes of variability (e.g. ENSO) that are observed in the current climate. Neither mechanism can be understood without a solid understanding of how climate variability has influenced disease patterns in the past. Extensive spatial and temporal cholera records provide an opportunity to address such understanding for an infectious disease remaining a public health problem around the globe, particularly in Asia but also Africa, for which the role of the environment is an important open question.

许多传染病的爆发表现出明显的季节性和年际变化。迄今为止，对环境因素（包括气候因素）作用的调查除了简单的相关分析外还没有取得重大进展。该项目开发定量方法来解决气候和其他环境因素在传染病种群动态中的作用，特别是那些具有暂时（短暂）免疫力和自由生活传染阶段的疾病。这项工作的重点是霍乱主要流行地区（印度东北部和孟加拉国），以及亚洲其他地区（越南）和非洲（莫桑比克）。其最终目标是通过将疾病与环境耦合的结果与气候模型相结合，制定气候变化下霍乱的定量情景。将检查所开发的定量方法对其他疾病（特别是疟疾和其他媒介传播的病原体）的适用性。全球气候正在变化。对疾病动态产生影响的最有可能的途径是通过驱动传播的季节性环境变量的伴随变化，以及通过在当前气候中观察到的主要（年际）变异模式（例如 ENSO）的变化。如果不充分了解气候变化如何影响过去的疾病模式，就无法理解这两种机制。广泛的空间和时间霍乱记录提供了一个机会来解决这种传染病仍然是全球公共卫生问题的认识，特别是在亚洲和非洲，环境的作用是一个重要的悬而未决的问题。