EID: Collaborative Research: The Interplay of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Epidemiological Dynamics: Cholera as a Case Study

许多传染病的暴发表现出明显的季节性和年际(年际)变化。到目前为止，对包括气候因素在内的环境因素的作用的调查，除了简单的相关分析之外，还没有取得重大进展。该项目开发了量化方法，以解决气候和其他环境因素在传染病人口动态中的作用，特别是那些具有临时(短期)免疫和自由生活的传染病阶段的疾病。这项工作的重点是其主要流行地区(印度东北部和孟加拉国)以及亚洲其他地区(越南)和非洲(莫桑比克)的霍乱。它的最终目标是通过将疾病-环境耦合的结果与气候模型结合起来，制定气候变化下霍乱的量化情景。将审查所开发的量化方法对其他疾病(特别是疟疾和其他媒介传播的病原体)的适用性。对疾病动态产生影响的最可能途径是通过驱动传播的季节性环境变量的伴随变化，以及通过在当前气候中观察到的主要(年际)变率模式(例如ENSO)的变化。如果没有对气候变化如何影响过去疾病模式的坚实理解，这两种机制都无法理解。大量的霍乱空间和时间记录提供了一个机会，以解决对这一传染病在全球范围内仍然是一个公共卫生问题的这种认识，特别是在亚洲和非洲，对非洲来说，环境的作用是一个重要的悬而未决的问题。

The outbreaks of many infectious diseases display pronounced seasonal and interannual (year to year) variation. To date, investigations of the role of environmental factors including climatic ones, have not significantly progressed beyond simple correlative analyses. This project develops quantitative approaches to address the role of climate and other environmental factors in the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those with temporary (short-lived) immunity and free-living infectious stages. The work focuses on cholera in its main endemic region (NE India and Bangladesh), but also other regions of Asia (Vietnam) and Africa (Mozambique). Its ultimate aim is to develop quantitative scenarios for cholera under climate change, by combining results on disease-environmental couplings with climate models.The applicability of the developed quantitative approaches to other diseases (particularly malaria and other vector borne pathogens) will be examined.The global climate is changing. The most likely avenues for impacts on disease dynamics are through concomitant changes in the seasonal environmental variables that drive transmission, and through changes in the dominant (interannual) modes of variability (e.g. ENSO) that are observed in the current climate. Neither mechanism can be understood without a solid understanding of how climate variability has influenced disease patterns in the past. Extensive spatial and temporal cholera records provide an opportunity to address such understanding for an infectious disease remaining a public health problem around the globe, particularly in Asia but also Africa, for which the role of the environment is an important open question.