MSPA-CSE: Analysis and Detection of Transient Dynamics in Ecological Systems

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Many of the traditional approaches in ecological theory are based on the paradigm that natural ecosystems return to stable states. Thus, traditional approaches to environmental problems draw on the large body of mathematical and statistical techniques for analyzing such systems. These approaches, however, have clear limitations. Just as ecologists emphasize that long-term experiments yield different results from short-term experiments, theory needs to take the role of time scales into account, and look beyond an emphasis on stability. In the context of this proposal, the PI's will develop the mathematical and statistical tools to understand the role of transient dynamics (as opposed to dynamics connected with stability) in ecological systems. This study will both aid our basic understanding of real ecological systems, and refine old and open up new approaches to environmental management. To cope with the often sudden and large impacts that humans can have on ecosystems, there is growing interest in management strategies that change as managers learn and as an ecosystem is beset by new shocks. Implementing adaptive management, however, requires a far more sophisticated understanding of how short-term, observed dynamics of a system generate long-term patterns that ultimately determine sustainability. Students will also receive important interdisciplinary training.