Climate Change, Vicarious Experience, and the Social Amplification of Risk

最近的研究已经确定了两种平行的，相互作用的信息处理模式：一个分析，逻辑和抽象的符号操作系统;和一个经验，情感和具体的图像，叙述和协会系统。研究还表明，经验系统可以对风险感知、决策和行为产生强大的影响。一个相关的研究机构将这些心理学研究结果纳入了一个更广泛的理论框架，该框架整合了心理、社会和文化过程，以了解风险的社会放大和衰减。 这些研究将大众媒体确定为公众风险认知的关键角色，但只关注新闻媒体的作用（例如，在风险沟通中。到目前为止，还没有关于电影对公众风险认知和行为影响的实证研究，尽管大量的轶事证据表明，流行的风险电影表现偶尔会对公众风险认知和行为产生强大的影响（例如，《大白鲨与中国综合症》（Jaws and The China Syndrome）电影整合了强大的意象、强烈的情感暗示和人物驱动的叙事，直接作用于个人的经验处理系统。此外，它们可能成为数百万人间接经历的重大风险放大事件，本项目将探讨间接经历的影响和全国范围内风险的社会放大。具体来说，我们假设，《后天》这部描述突然的、灾难性的气候变化的电影，将显著改变公众对气候变化影响的可能性和严重性的风险认知，并将公众对气候变化的概念从渐进的、线性的变暖转变为突然的、非线性的和灾难性的变化。该项目将在治疗前、治疗期间和治疗后进行三次全国调查，以检验这一假设。 本研究的结果将有助于新兴理论的经验处理和风险的社会放大作用的风险感知和决策。这也将有助于我们了解大众媒体对社会的影响。

Recent research has identified two parallel, interacting modes of information processing: an analytic, logical and abstract system of symbol manipulation; and an experiential, emotional and concrete system of images, narratives and associations. Research has also demonstrated that the experiential system can have powerful influences on risk perception, decision making and behavior. A related body of research has incorporated these psychological findings within a broader theoretical framework, which integrates psychological, social and cultural processes to understand the social amplification and attenuation of risk. These studies have identified the mass media as a critical actor in public risk perceptions, but have focused exclusively on the role of the news media (e.g., newspapers) in risk communication. To date, there has been no empirical investigation of the influence of motion pictures on public risk perceptions and behavior, despite substantial anecdotal evidence suggesting that popular movie representations of risk can occasionally have a powerful influence on public risk perceptions and behaviors (e.g., Jaws and The China Syndrome). Motion pictures, which integrate powerful imagery, strong emotional cues, and character-driven narrative, work directly on an individual's experiential processing system. Further, they can become major risk amplification events vicariously experienced by millions of people.This project will explore the impact of vicarious experience and the social amplification of risk at the national scale. Specifically, we hypothesize that The Day After Tomorrow, a film that depicts abrupt, catastrophic climate change, will measurably alter public risk perceptions of the likelihood and severity of climate change impacts and shift public conceptions of climate change from a gradual, linear warming to abrupt, non-linear and catastrophic change. The project will test this hypothesis using three national surveys in a before, during and after treatment design. Results from this study will contribute to emerging theory on the roles of experiential processing and the social amplification of risk in risk perception and decision-making. It will also contribute to our understanding of the influence of mass media on society.