Developing an Understanding and Predictive Capability of the Interconnections Among Arctic Terrestrial, Atmospheric, and Marine Systems

北极生态系统与地球北极系统（陆地、海洋和大气）紧密相连，对全球变暖和气候变化的影响高度敏感。最近的研究表明，温室气体增加造成的最大幅度的温度上升预计将发生在北极地区。由于陆地、海洋和大气系统是密不可分的，因此必须在全球变化的背景下评估这种相互作用以及这种变化所产生的影响。基于这些系统之间的多重积极反馈，涉及拟议研究的知识价值的三个科学目标是：（1）估计海洋和大气系统内的变化对陆地气体通量的历史和未来影响，（包括CO2和水蒸气）和非气态（颗粒和溶解有机物、营养物和水）陆地与大气和海洋之间的物质和能量;（2）评估辐射、气候、海洋环流、海洋温度和海冰位置和范围的变化对陆地过程的影响，包括那些对大气和海洋过程有反馈的国家;（3）提供高分辨率产品（大气、冰、海洋和陆地）以及与陆地和海洋过程的模式和控制有关的相关数据集，供今后分析使用。（B）确定和利用来自天空箭飞机和涡度协方差塔网络的碳通量率和气象状态，以获得碳平衡的区域估计，并验证区域建模;（C）利用卫星监测，利用高级甚高分辨率辐射计和中分辨率成像光谱仪，量化北极植被结构、生产力和景观冻融状况的空间格局和时间变化;（D）利用Biome-BGC和RHESSys生态系统模型对陆地碳和水文的模拟，对每日碳、水、（E）利用一个高分辨率的区域冰-海洋耦合模式评估海冰范围和海洋过程;以及（F）利用基于物理的空间分布水文模型来评估流域尺度的水文过程，提供景观单元内和景观单元之间的水分动态信息，以评估流域尺度上的综合水文响应，并根据土壤水分测量结果进行验证，这两个教育/宣传目标涉及上述研究的更广泛影响，具体如下：（4）创建基于计算机的静态和近实时显示，说明北极在进一步影响全球变化方面的作用，并具体说明北极对全球变化的敏感性。这些基于计算机的显示器将是交互式的，并将战略性地放置在与当地人、北极游客和巴罗和圣地亚哥县的K-12学生相关的区域。这些展览将结合目前参与全球变化研究的其他区域对北极全球变化研究的讨论;（5）编制材料，供巴罗、北坡其他地方和“外面”的K-8教室使用。这些材料将帮助学生了解北极系统在全球变化中的重要性。

AbstractArctic ecosystems are both tightly linked to the earth arctic systems (land, ocean, and atmosphere) and are highly sensitive to the effects of global warming and climate change. Recent studies indicate that the most significant rise in temperature resulting from increased greenhouse gases is anticipated to occur within the Arctic. Because the land, sea, and atmospheric systems are inextricably linked, it is important to assess this interaction within the context of global change and the resultant impacts of such change. The potential for amplification of resultant impacts, based on multiple positive feedbacks between these systems, will be relevant at regional as well as global scales.The three scientific goals that address the intellectual merit of the proposed research are to (1) Estimate the historic and future impacts of variability within the ocean and atmospheric systems on terrestrial fluxes of gaseous (including CO2 and water vapor) and non-gaseous (particulate and dissolved organic matter, nutrients, and water) materials and energy between the land and the atmosphere and sea; (2) Evaluate the impacts of variation in radiation, climate, ocean circulation, ocean temperature, and sea ice position and extent on terrestrial processes, including those that have feedback on atmospheric and ocean processes; and (3) Provide high-resolution products (atmospheric, ice, ocean, and terrestrial) and related datasets, relevant to the patterns and controls of terrestrial and oceanic processes, for use in future analyses.The methods for reaching these goals are (A) Use of the regional atmospheric model, Polar MM5, to produce high-resolution atmospheric data for the North Slope of Alaska; (B) Determination and utilization of carbon flux rates and meteorological states from a Sky Arrow aircraft and eddy covariance tower network to obtain regional estimates of carbon balance, and to verify regional modeling; (C) Use of satellite monitoring to quantify spatial patterns and temporal variability of Arctic vegetation structure, productivity, and landscape freeze-thaw state using AVHRR and MODIS; (D) Utilize Biome-BGC and RHESSys ecosystem model simulations of terrestrial carbon and hydrological to conduct detailed site simulations of daily carbon, water, and nitrogen budgets at a range of spatial scales and extents within the study domain; (E) Utilize a high-resolution, regionally coupled ice-ocean model to assess sea ice extent and oceanic processes; and (F) Utilize a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrologic model to assess hydrologic processes at the watershed scale, providing information on moisture dynamics within and among landscape units in order to assess integrated hydrologic responses on a watershed scale to be verified against measurements of soil moisture and to examine consequent effects such as groundwater flux, stream discharges, and biogeochemical processes.The two education/outreach goals address the broader impacts of the research outlined above as follows: (4) Create computer based, static and near-real time displays, that describe the role of the Arctic in further influencing global change, and to specifically address the sensitivity of the Arctic to global change. These computer-based displays will be interactive and will be strategically placed in areas relevant to local natives, arctic tourists, and K-12 students in Barrow and San Diego County. The displays will integrate discussions of arctic global change studies in association with other regions currently involved in global change research; and (5) Develop materials for use in K-8 classrooms in Barrow, elsewhere on the North Slope, and on the "outside". These materials will help students understand the importance of arctic systems in global change.