SGER: Sensitivity of the West African Monsoon to Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

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Output from state-of-the art coupled atmosphere/ocean global models will be examined to evaluate the models' ability to capture a distinct mode of rainfall variability over WestAfrica. When the eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) is warm, for example, summer monsoon precipitation is observed to be especially strong along the southern (Guinean) coast of Africa. At the same time, rainfall in the Sahel region to the north tends to be much lower than normal, bringing crop failure and severe hardship for the population.Past studies of this mode of variability in models and observations have identified the physical processes that lead to this dipole precipitation response. Enhanced precipitation along the coast is due to increased evaporation to the south over the warm Gulf of Guinea, since the presence of an equatorial (east/west) Walker circulation with its sinking branch over the Gulf prevents locally-enhanced convection in association with the warmer sea surface. Reduced precipitation over the Sahel is a consequence of the enhanced sinking of warm, dry air flowing equatorward out of the Saharan high near 700 hPa, and the requirements of potential vorticity conservation for this flow.Model output will be examined to understand the relationship between a model's ability to simulate the precipitation dipole and its resolution and physical treatments. Atmospheric moisture budget, vorticity, and moist static energy budget analyses will be used to evaluate the mechanisms of the simulated variability. The possibility that the dipole pattern will occur more frequently, or become permanently established, in the future as ocean temperatures rise will be investigated. This study will contribute to our fundamental understanding of how drought occurs in the Sahel and lead to an improved ability to predict African drought on all time scales. It will also provide guidance to environmental managers and policy makers regarding the quality of climate projections for this part of the world.