Evaluation of the Great Plains Low-level Jet and Its Relationship to Mid-West Precipitation in Coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) Simulations of the 20th and 21st Centuries

20世纪和21世纪耦合大气环流模型（GCM）模拟中大平原低空急流的评估及其与中西部降水的关系

• 批准号: 0701129
• 负责人: Kerry Cook
• 金额: $ 5.79万
• 依托单位: Cornell Univ - State: AWDS MADE PRIOR MAY 2010
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-04-15 至 2009-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0701129&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Evaluation; Great; Plains; Low; level

This project combines a phenomenological study of the role of the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) in the hydrologic cycle of the central United States with a diagnostic subproject for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the premier organization for assessments of the science of climate change. Phase one is an evaluation of the ability of many coupled (ocean, atmosphere and land all included) global climate models to simulate the salient features of the GPLLJ. Phase two is to relate this to elements of the hydrologic cycle (surface and lower atmosphere) in this region. These phases are largely a validation and dynamical study of current state-of-the-art climate simulations. Finally, integrations from climate change projection scenarios will be examined to assess possible future impacts on the GPLLJ and possible implications for the region's hydrology (and by association, agriculture). This is a one-year study to support summer time for an undergraduate (3 months), a research associate (2 months) and one month of the PI's time. The undergraduate is the driving force behind this project, who will make this project the basis of an Honors Program research project in Economics. This highly focused study is expected to generate one paper. Beyond education, there are broader impacts in the examination of consequences of climate change on regional hydrology and agricultural impacts in the nation's breadbasket.

该项目将大平原低空急流（GPLLJ）在美国中部水文循环中的作用的现象学研究与政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的诊断子项目相结合，IPCC是评估气候变化科学的首要组织。第一阶段是评估许多耦合的全球气候模式（包括海洋、大气和陆地）模拟GPLLJ显著特征的能力。第二阶段是将其与该地区的水文循环要素（地表和低层大气）联系起来。这些阶段在很大程度上是对当前最先进的气候模拟的验证和动态研究。最后，将研究气候变化预测情景的整合，以评估未来对GPLLJ的可能影响以及对该地区水文（以及相关的农业）的可能影响。这是一项为期一年的研究，为本科生（3个月），研究助理（2个月）和PI的一个月时间提供暑期时间。本科生是这个项目背后的驱动力，他们将使这个项目成为经济学荣誉项目研究项目的基础。这项高度集中的研究预计将产生一篇论文。除了教育之外，在研究气候变化对区域水文和国家产粮区农业的影响方面，还有更广泛的影响。