Regional Climate Resilience and Sensitivity in the Tropics and Subtropics

热带和亚热带区域气候恢复力和敏感性

• 批准号: 1356386
• 负责人: Kerry Cook
• 金额: $ 70.91万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Austin
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-04-01 至 2019-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1356386&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Regional; Climate; Resilience; Sensitivity; Tropics

The objective of this study is to use observations of the developing global warming signal to better understand sensitivity and resilience within the climate system to climate forcing. The study will focus on the tropical and subtropical climate system's response to tropical/subtropical forcing, and on regional-scale climate processes. Are some regions more resilient to change under greenhouse gas forcing, while other regions more vulnerable to the same forcing? If so, why? What regional physical processes operate to produce or resist change? The research activity combines an analysis of observed climate change during the satellite era with regional climate modeling to improve fundamental understanding of how the tropical/subtropical climate responds to tropical forcing over a range of time scales. The focus is on the tropics and subtropics (35°S to 35°N), and the analysis begins with an in-depth investigation of changes in the surface heat budget. Multiple datasets, including atmospheric and ocean reanalyses and satellite observations, will be included to evaluate confidence. Simulations using regional climate models, with and without coupling between the atmosphere and oceans, are used in process studies to simulate and further evaluate the role of various climate processes.This effort will shed insights into sensitivity and resilience in the climate system, emphasizing the tropical and subtropical region. This has substantial broader impacts.

本研究的目的是利用对全球变暖信号的观测，更好地了解气候系统对气候强迫的敏感性和弹性。该研究将重点关注热带和亚热带气候系统对热带/亚热带强迫的响应以及区域尺度气候过程。是否有些区域在温室气体强迫下对变化的适应能力更强，而其他区域则更容易受到同样的强迫？如果是，为什么？什么样的区域物理过程产生或抵制变化？该研究活动将卫星时代观测到的气候变化分析与区域气候建模相结合，以提高对热带/亚热带气候如何在一系列时间尺度上响应热带强迫的基本理解。重点是热带和亚热带（35°S至35°N），分析从深入调查地表热量收支的变化开始。将包括多个数据集，包括大气和海洋再分析以及卫星观测，以评估置信度。在过程研究中，使用区域气候模式进行模拟，包括大气和海洋之间的耦合和不耦合，以模拟和进一步评估各种气候过程的作用。这一努力将有助于深入了解气候系统的敏感性和恢复力，重点是热带和亚热带地区。这具有广泛的实质性影响。