Regional Climate Resilience and Sensitivity in the Tropics and Subtropics

本研究的目的是利用对发展中的全球变暖信号的观测来更好地了解气候系统对气候强迫的敏感性和恢复力。该研究将侧重于热带和亚热带气候系统对热带/亚热带强迫的响应，以及区域尺度的气候过程。在温室气体强迫下，一些地区对变化的适应能力更强，而另一些地区对同样的强迫更脆弱吗？如果是，为什么？哪些区域物理过程产生或抵制变化？该研究活动将卫星时代观测到的气候变化分析与区域气候模拟相结合，以提高对热带/亚热带气候如何在一定时间尺度上响应热带强迫的基本认识。重点是热带和亚热带（35°S至35°N），分析开始于对地表热收支变化的深入调查。将纳入多个数据集，包括大气和海洋再分析以及卫星观测，以评估置信度。在过程研究中，利用区域气候模式进行模拟，不论有无大气与海洋之间的耦合，以模拟和进一步评价各种气候过程的作用。这项工作将有助于深入了解气候系统的敏感性和复原力，重点关注热带和亚热带地区。这有更广泛的影响。

The objective of this study is to use observations of the developing global warming signal to better understand sensitivity and resilience within the climate system to climate forcing. The study will focus on the tropical and subtropical climate system's response to tropical/subtropical forcing, and on regional-scale climate processes. Are some regions more resilient to change under greenhouse gas forcing, while other regions more vulnerable to the same forcing? If so, why? What regional physical processes operate to produce or resist change? The research activity combines an analysis of observed climate change during the satellite era with regional climate modeling to improve fundamental understanding of how the tropical/subtropical climate responds to tropical forcing over a range of time scales. The focus is on the tropics and subtropics (35°S to 35°N), and the analysis begins with an in-depth investigation of changes in the surface heat budget. Multiple datasets, including atmospheric and ocean reanalyses and satellite observations, will be included to evaluate confidence. Simulations using regional climate models, with and without coupling between the atmosphere and oceans, are used in process studies to simulate and further evaluate the role of various climate processes.This effort will shed insights into sensitivity and resilience in the climate system, emphasizing the tropical and subtropical region. This has substantial broader impacts.