Regional Climate Resilience and Sensitivity in the Tropics and Subtropics

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The objective of this study is to use observations of the developing global warming signal to better understand sensitivity and resilience within the climate system to climate forcing. The study will focus on the tropical and subtropical climate system's response to tropical/subtropical forcing, and on regional-scale climate processes. Are some regions more resilient to change under greenhouse gas forcing, while other regions more vulnerable to the same forcing? If so, why? What regional physical processes operate to produce or resist change? The research activity combines an analysis of observed climate change during the satellite era with regional climate modeling to improve fundamental understanding of how the tropical/subtropical climate responds to tropical forcing over a range of time scales. The focus is on the tropics and subtropics (35°S to 35°N), and the analysis begins with an in-depth investigation of changes in the surface heat budget. Multiple datasets, including atmospheric and ocean reanalyses and satellite observations, will be included to evaluate confidence. Simulations using regional climate models, with and without coupling between the atmosphere and oceans, are used in process studies to simulate and further evaluate the role of various climate processes.This effort will shed insights into sensitivity and resilience in the climate system, emphasizing the tropical and subtropical region. This has substantial broader impacts.