Nations in Time and Space: State Learning and International Conflict

当两个国家互动时，它们是在历史背景下以及在国际体系中的同行中互动的。我们常常将两个国家之间的直接互动（二元行为）与更广泛的背景（额外二元行为）隔离开来。 在这样做的时候，我们忽略了有关这些国家的信仰和动机的重要信息，这些信息可能在直接关系中发挥作用。政府观察其同僚的行为这一主张很容易提出。令人困惑的是，这些信息在外交决策中扮演的角色。国家领导人如何解释他们的朋友和敌人的行动？更一般地说，国家是否会根据其他国家在其他地方的行为来改变它们与其他国家的行为？研究者开发了一个州际政治中关系相互依赖的模型，反映了国家从其二元伙伴的额外二元行为中学习的方式。我提出了一个动态的学习过程模型，然后将这个概念转化为一个公开的数据集。该模型代表了一种学习机制，国家使用处理关系的相互依赖性。这种学习机制被定义为经验性和诊断性的（Jervis，1976; Leng，1983; Levy，1994），它来自支持态度形成和认知平衡理论的逻辑（Heider，1946; Harary，1959; Harary和Cartwright，1965;纽科姆，1953，1961）。该模型的操作是复杂的，但可定制的，研究者提供了一个“开源”的规范程序，为未来的奖学金。该产品将使学者很容易在他们目前的研究中表示关系空间相互依赖性，无论是在状态，二元，或直接二元分析水平。这项研究将提供关于关系相互依存的数据，这些数据在理论上是有动机的，但目前的冲突过程和国际关系的经验学者更广泛地适应。这些数据将很容易地纳入当前的研究设计在国家，二元和直接二元水平的分析。更广泛的影响这个研究项目的第二个方面是关系的相互依存对战争和暴力现象在国际政治的影响的决心。这项研究表明，当国家在危机时期决定其行动方针时，它们依赖于通过相互依存关系产生的信息。当对手与体系中其他类似国家有冲突历史时，国家更有可能陷入军事化争端和战争。这项研究的影响是重要的，目前的奖学金在国际关系中的冲突研究。 它们也与外交政策的考虑有关，因为这些结果表明，使用武力的声誉效应不是被暴力所威慑，而是鼓励对手准备战争。

When two nations interact, they do so within the context of history as well as their peers in the international system. Too often we isolate the direct interactions (dyadic behavior) between two nations from this broader context (extra-dyadic behavior). In doing so, we ignore important information about the beliefs and motivations of these nations that may play a role in the direct relationship. This claim that governments observe the behavior of their peers is easy enough to make. What remains puzzling is the role this information plays in foreign policy decision-making. How do state leaders interpret the actions of their friends and foes? More generally, do nations alter their behavior with other states based on what those states are doing elsewhere? The investigator develops a model of relational interdependence in interstate politics that reflects the way states learn from the extra-dyadic behavior of their dyadic partners. I present a dynamic model of this learning process and then operationalize the concept into a publicly available data set. The model represents a learning mechanism states use to process relational interdependence. This learning mechanism is defined as experiential and diagnostic (Jervis, 1976; Leng, 1983; Levy,1994), and it draws from the logic that underpins attitude formation and cognitive balance theories(Heider, 1946; Harary, 1959; Harary and Cartwright, 1965; Newcomb, 1953, 1961). The operationalization of this model is complex but customizable, and the researcher provides an "open source" program of the specification for future scholarship. This product will make it easy for scholars to represent relational spatial interdependence in their current research whether at the state, dyadic, or directed-dyadic levels of analysis. The research will make available data on relational interdependence that is theoretically motivated yet adaptable by current empirical scholars of conflict processes and international relations more broadly. This data will be easily incorporated into current research designs at the state, dyadic, and directed-dyadic levels of analysis. Broader ImpactsA second dimension of this research project is a determination of the impact of relational interdependence on the phenomena of war and violence in international politics. This research indicates that when nations determine their courses of action in times of crisis, they rely upon the information produced through relational interdependence. Countries are more likely to get into militarized disputes and wars when their opponents have conflictual histories with other, similar countries in the system. The implications of this research are important for current scholarship in the study of conflict in international relations. They are also relevant to foreign policy considerations, as these results indicate that rather than being deterred by violence, the reputation effects of using force encourage opponents to prepare for war.