Project Civil Strife: Multi-actor Models of Internal Conflict and Cooperation

内乱项目：内部冲突与合作的多参与者模型

• 批准号: 0452769
• 负责人: Stephen Shellman
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: College of William and Mary
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-05-01 至 2005-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0452769&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Project; Civil; Strife; Multi; actor

When and why do governments and dissidents escalate and de-escalate their hostility towards one another? This project develops a theory to answer this question and specifies empirical time series models to test a number of hypotheses implied by the theory. Specifically, the project advances new theory focusing on government and dissident leaders and the impact that their motivations have on tactical decisions over the course of a civil conflict. Drawing on theories of leadership and political survival, behavioral rules are deduced that lead actors to make certain tactical choices under given contextual conditions. Second, the theory is expanded to analyze behavioral exchanges among multiple dissident groups in competition with a government. Recent data produced from Project Civil Strife (PCS) is able to overcome present data limitations by collecting information on the levels of behavior exchanged among multiple domestic actors. Third, the project analyzes how outcomes of government-dissident interactions affect the propensity of leader turnover and how critical events such as leader turnover, coup d'etats, and regime changes affect government-dissident interactions. Such empirical work aids in forecasting the escalation and de-escalation of conflict and developing policy prescriptions to reduce tensions between social actors and the government. Finally, the project directly analyzes the relationship between leaders and their coalitions and tests if and how leaders' tactical choices are influenced by their coalitions' desires.Broader Social Value: The study will make contributions in both the academic and policy arenas ranging from improved academic understanding of government and dissident leaders' tactical decisions in domestic conflict to informing the efforts of practitioners involved in confronting domestic challenges. As a secondary objective, the project also develops research tools and data sets that can be used in a variety of other research projects such as those focusing on trade and conflict, investment and conflict, forced migration, and domestic-international conflict linkages.

各国政府和持不同政见者何时以及为什么会升级和缓和彼此之间的敌意？这个项目开发了一种理论来回答这个问题，并指定了经验时间序列模型来测试该理论所隐含的一些假设。具体地说，该项目提出了新的理论，重点关注政府和持不同政见者领导人，以及他们的动机对国内冲突过程中的战术决策的影响。在领导力和政治生存理论的基础上，推导出行为规则，这些规则引导参与者在给定的语境条件下做出一定的战术选择。其次，该理论被扩展到分析与政府竞争的多个持不同政见者群体之间的行为交换。民间冲突项目(PCS)最近产生的数据能够通过收集关于多个国内行为者之间交换的行为水平的信息来克服目前的数据限制。第三，该项目分析了政府与持不同政见者互动的结果如何影响领导人更替的倾向，以及领导人更替、政变和政权更迭等关键事件如何影响政府与持不同政见者的互动。这种经验性工作有助于预测冲突的升级和缓和，并制定政策处方以减少社会行为者与政府之间的紧张关系。最后，该项目直接分析领导人和他们的联盟之间的关系，并测试领导人的战术选择是否以及如何受到联盟意愿的影响。广泛的社会价值：这项研究将在学术和政策领域做出贡献，从改善学术上对政府和持不同政见者领导人在国内冲突中的战术决策的理解，到为参与应对国内挑战的实践者的努力提供信息。作为次要目标，该项目还开发了可用于各种其他研究项目的研究工具和数据集，例如那些侧重于贸易和冲突、投资和冲突、强迫移徙和国内-国际冲突联系的研究项目。