Doctoral Dissertation Research: Analysis and Modeling of Dengue Virus Transmission in Space and Time

登革热病毒是导致登革热和更严重的登革热出血热的原因。埃及伊蚊是这一病毒家族的主要媒介。埃及伊蚊被称为周围化或居留化，因为它适应与人类生活，并在很大程度上依赖于与人的密切接触。该项目的目的是在个人层面详细调查登革热病毒的传播动态。这将分两个阶段完成：1.开发探索性方法，对绘制的点模式进行时空分析，其中点代表登革热及其相关发生的地点。这些方法还包括在区域系统时空分析软件框架中采用现有的探索性空间数据分析技术。2.埃及伊蚊集合种群模型的建立和验证，用于研究埃及伊蚊局部丰度和持久性的栖息地决定因素。集合种群模型被用来研究分布在由相互作用的本地繁殖种群组成的空间碎片或斑块环境中的种群。具体地说，随机斑块占用模型将捕捉重要的生物学和空间细节。该模型的参数是斑块或种群灭绝和定居的概率。该项目寻求利用和发展登革热病毒传播动力学方面的有限研究。重点是登革热病毒传播的空间维度和埃及伊蚊种群的时空动态。动态集合种群模型的使用在开发比现有更具成本效益的媒介控制程序方面提供了重要的进步。此外，这项研究中进行的分析类型可能适用于其他已知病因的传染病和病媒传播疾病，并为生活在空间分散的生境中的其他病媒制定控制策略。

Dengue viruses are responsible for the disease dengue fever and the more severe dengue haemorrhagic fever. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of this family of viruses. Aedes aegypti is termed peridomesticated or domiciliated because it is adapted to living with humans and largely dependent on close contact with people. The purpose of this project is to investigate in detail the transmission dynamics of dengue viruses at the individual level. This will be accomplished in two stages: 1. The development of exploratory methods for space-time analysis of mapped point patterns where points represent the location of dengue and related occurrences. These methods also include adapting existing exploratory spatial data analysis techniques in the Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems (STARS) software framework. 2. The development and validation of Aedes aegypti metapopulation models for the study of the habitat determinants of local abundance and persistence of Aedes aegypti. Metapopulation models are employed to study populations that are distributed in spatially fragmented or patchy environments consisting of interacting local breeding populations. Specifically, stochastic patch occupancy models will capture significant biological and spatial detail. The parameters of this model are the patch or household extinction and colonization probabilities. This project seeks to utilize and build upon the limited research in the dynamics of dengue virus transmission. The focus is on both the spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission and the space-time dynamics of Aedes aegypti populations. The use of dynamic metapopulation models provides an important advance in developing more cost effective vector control programs than are now in existence. Furthermore, the types of analysis performed in this research may be applied to other communicable and vector-borne diseases with known etiology, and for developing control strategies for other vectors living in spatially fragmented habitats.