Doctoral Dissertation Research: Analysis and Modeling of Dengue Virus Transmission in Space and Time

博士论文研究：登革热病毒时空传播分析与建模

• 批准号: 0502020
• 负责人: Arthur Getis
• 金额: $ 0.45万
• 依托单位: San Diego State University Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-03-15 至 2006-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0502020&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Analysis; Modeling

Dengue viruses are responsible for the disease dengue fever and the more severe dengue haemorrhagic fever. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of this family of viruses. Aedes aegypti is termed peridomesticated or domiciliated because it is adapted to living with humans and largely dependent on close contact with people. The purpose of this project is to investigate in detail the transmission dynamics of dengue viruses at the individual level. This will be accomplished in two stages: 1. The development of exploratory methods for space-time analysis of mapped point patterns where points represent the location of dengue and related occurrences. These methods also include adapting existing exploratory spatial data analysis techniques in the Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems (STARS) software framework. 2. The development and validation of Aedes aegypti metapopulation models for the study of the habitat determinants of local abundance and persistence of Aedes aegypti. Metapopulation models are employed to study populations that are distributed in spatially fragmented or patchy environments consisting of interacting local breeding populations. Specifically, stochastic patch occupancy models will capture significant biological and spatial detail. The parameters of this model are the patch or household extinction and colonization probabilities. This project seeks to utilize and build upon the limited research in the dynamics of dengue virus transmission. The focus is on both the spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission and the space-time dynamics of Aedes aegypti populations. The use of dynamic metapopulation models provides an important advance in developing more cost effective vector control programs than are now in existence. Furthermore, the types of analysis performed in this research may be applied to other communicable and vector-borne diseases with known etiology, and for developing control strategies for other vectors living in spatially fragmented habitats.

登革热病毒导致登革热和更严重的登革出血热。埃及伊蚊是该病毒家族的主要媒介。埃及伊蚊被称为围驯化或驯化，因为它适应与人类一起生活，并且在很大程度上依赖于与人类的密切接触。该项目的目的是详细研究个体水平上登革热病毒的传播动态。这将分两个阶段完成： 1. 开发用于映射点模式时空分析的探索性方法，其中点代表登革热和相关事件的位置。这些方法还包括在区域系统时空分析 (STARS) 软件框架中采用现有的探索性空间数据分析技术。 2. 埃及伊蚊集合种群模型的开发和验证，用于研究埃及伊蚊局部丰度和持久性的栖息地决定因素。 集合种群模型用于研究分布在空间分散或斑驳环境中的种群，这些环境由相互作用的当地繁殖种群组成。具体来说，随机斑块占用模型将捕获重要的生物和空间细节。 该模型的参数是斑块或家庭灭绝和殖民概率。该项目旨在利用和建立登革热病毒传播动力学的有限研究。重点是登革热病毒传播的空间维度和埃及伊蚊种群的时空动态。 动态集合种群模型的使用为开发比现有的更具成本效益的病媒控制程序提供了重要的进步。 此外，本研究中进行的分析类型可应用于已知病因的其他传染病和媒介传播疾病，并可用于为生活在空间分散的栖息地的其他媒介制定控制策略。