Investment and Divestment Decisions under Uncertainty and Information and Tax Asymmetrie

不确定性、信息和税收不对称下的投资和撤资决策

• 批准号: 171236984
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Caren Sureth-Sloane
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für BWL, insbes. Betriebswirtschaftliche Steuerlehre
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2009-12-31 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/171236984?language=en
• 关键词: Investment; Divestment; Decisions; under; Uncertainty

To continue and enhance the work of the first funding period, we intend to proceed with our investigations on the influence of taxation, especially the asymmetric taxation of profits and losses and capital gains taxation, on investors' willingness to invest or disinvest in a dynamic setting. We focus on three main questions.(1)Existing studies on the effect of capital gains taxation on risky investment timing decisions are based on complex multi-period models, not all of which can be solved analytically. To close this research gap we plan to develop a modified and analytically transparent model that incorporates a split tax rate on current operating profits and capital gains. Using this model, which allows us to mathematically identify the main influencing factors and drivers, we investigate whether and to what extent asymmetric taxation of operating profits and capital gains impacts risky investment and divestment decisions.(2)As a next step, we intend to test whether the theoretical findings on tax-induced investment and divestment effects we obtained in the first funding period also remain valid in an experimental study. Our model's clear and comprehensible design, particularly the experimental reproduction of an economic decision that incorporates a waiting and exit option and depicts uncertainty with a binary random variable, shows considerable potential in terms of gaining further insights.(3)Almost all previous studies on the effects of taxes on investment and liquidation behavior are based upon the assumption that human decision-makers are absolutely rational. However, in numerous experimental studies researchers have shown that test subjects systematically behave irrationally in certain situations. It is hence important to study the influence of taxes on economic decisions under the presumption that cognitive distortions interfere with strict rationality. Instead of applying methods that follow the traditional expected utility theory, we will hence use behavioral economic theory, specifically Prospect Theory, which mathematically depicts psychological elements and irrational behavior, in our planned theroretical study of tax- induced investment effects.We employ new research models and methods and take into account aspects of behavioral economics to yield new insights into the effect of taxes on investment and divestment decisions. These new scientific findings are helpful for both investors and politicians to anticipate the effects of future tax reforms. They can hence help to improve existing tax legislation and add to the debate on how to increase the attractiveness of Germany as an investment location.

为了继续和加强第一个资助期的工作，我们打算继续调查税收，特别是不对称的损益税和资本利得税，在一个动态的环境下对投资者投资或撤资意愿的影响。本文主要研究了以下三个问题：(1)已有的关于资本利得税对风险投资时机决策影响的研究都是基于复杂的多期模型，并不是所有的模型都能用解析的方法来解决。为了缩小这一研究差距，我们计划开发一个修改后的、分析上透明的模型，将当前营业利润和资本利得的分离税率纳入其中。使用这个模型，我们可以从数学上识别主要的影响因素和驱动因素，我们调查了对营业利润和资本利得的不对称征税是否以及在多大程度上影响了风险投资和撤资决策。(2)作为下一步，我们打算检验我们在第一个资助期获得的关于税收诱导投资和撤资效应的理论结果是否在实验研究中仍然有效。我们的模型清晰易懂的设计，特别是包含等待和退出选项并用二进制随机变量描述不确定性的经济决策的实验再现，显示了在获得进一步洞察方面的巨大潜力。(3)几乎所有以前关于税收对投资和清算行为影响的研究都基于人类决策者是绝对理性的假设。然而，在大量的实验研究中，研究人员已经表明，测试对象在某些情况下会有系统地表现出不合理的行为。因此，在认知扭曲干扰严格理性的假设下，研究税收对经济决策的影响是重要的。因此，我们将不再沿用传统的期望效用理论，而是使用行为经济学理论，特别是从数学上描述心理因素和非理性行为的前景理论，来研究税收诱导投资效应的理论研究。我们采用了新的研究模型和方法，并考虑了行为经济学的各个方面，对税收对投资和撤资决策的影响提出了新的见解。这些新的科学发现有助于投资者和政界人士预测未来税收改革的影响。因此，它们可以帮助改进现有的税收立法，并增加关于如何提高德国作为投资地点的吸引力的辩论。