Ecological consequences of local tree interaction and individual tree sensitivity to stress events on the dynamic of beech-oak-forest stands

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Recent studies show that the frequency and intensity of disturbance events, such as drought and frost, can strongly affect the composition and dynamics of plant communities. However, our current understanding of underlying ecological processes and how they interact with other stressors is very limited but crucial for predicting the consequences of changing disturbance and stress regimes. Therefore, the proposed project aims at gaining mechanistic understanding of how forests respond to disturbance regimes and stressors. For this, we will combine dendrochronological methods, point pattern analyses, individual-based modeling approaches, and modern statistical techniques for model selection in a comprehensive way. As study system, we will use beech-oak forests along a moisture gradient. Dendrochronological and wood anatomical analyses will provide information about individual growth responses of trees to environmental signals. In order to predict the consequences of such responses on forest stand level, individual-based simulation models will be used to test alternative assumptions on how trees interact locally, and modify their morphology and performance in response to competition and disturbances. The model that best explains the data will be used to predict accumulated effects of disturbances and stress on tree mortality and spatiotemporal patterns at the stand level. Our results will provide mechanistic insights into the potential of forests to buffer ongoing and expected changes in the climate regime and in particular the sequence and intensity of extreme climate events.