LTREB: Integrating Long-term Demographic Data and Repeated Genetic Sampling for Viability Analysis of Natural and Restored Populations of Pitcher's Thistle

联邦政府列入濒危植物名单的七个种群正在评估长期种群的生存能力。蓟是一种仅限于五大湖西部海岸线的稀有植物。我们的研究结合了长期的人口统计数据集、重复的分子遗传采样和数量性状变异评估，以评估自然和恢复植物种群的生存能力和灭绝风险。本项目涉及的基本问题是：(1)种群生存能力分析是否准确地预测种群趋势和灭绝概率；(2)恢复种群是否遵循与自然种群相似的进化轨迹，即恢复种群和自然种群之间的人口和遗传参数是否不同？NSF将继续支持长期数据收集和扩展建模，以整合多个恢复的和自然种群的人口学和遗传变异。这将极大地提高我们研究的稳健性和适用性，以了解长期人口变异性如何影响种群生存，以及加强对这种受威胁物种的恢复和管理。尽管需要长期的人口数据和重复的遗传分析来准确地模拟种群的生存能力，但这样的数据集很少，我们的数据集代表了受威胁物种恢复的和自然的种群的独特组合。我们的工作也符合联邦恢复计划的目标，研究和恢复该物种。

Seven populations of the federally-listed threatened Pitcher's thistle (Cirsium pitcheri), a rare plant restricted to the shorelines of the western Great Lakes, are being assessed for long-term population viability. Our research brings together a long-term demographic data set, repeated molecular genetic sampling and an assessment of quantitative trait variation to assess population viability and extinction risk of natural and restored plant populations. The fundamental questions addressed in this project are: (1) Does population viability analysis accurately predict population trends and extinction probabilities; and (2) Do restored populations follow a similar evolutionary trajectory as natural populations, i.e. do demographic and genetic parameters differ between restored and natural populations? Support from NSF will continue long-term data collection and expand modeling to integrate demographic and genetic variation of multiple restored and natural populations of C. pitcheri. This will greatly improve the robustness and applicability of our research toward understanding how long-term demographic variability affects population viability, as well as enhance restoration and management of this threatened species. Despite the need for long-term demographic data and repeated genetic analysis to accurately model population viability, few such data sets exist, and ours represents a unique combination for restored and natural populations of a threatened species. Our work also meets federal recovery planning objectives for research and restoration of this species.