Bounded Conflict: The Consumer Price Index and American Political Economy, 1880 - 1985

有限的冲突：消费者价格指数和美国政治经济，1880 - 1985

• 批准号: 0522433
• 负责人: Thomas Stapleford
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of Notre Dame
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-07-01 至 2007-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0522433&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Bounded; Conflict; Consumer; Price; Index

Bounded Conflict:The Consumer Price Index and American Political Economy, 1880 - 1985Since 1950, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been one of the most potent economicstatistics, largely because of its incorporation into automatic escalator clauses in unioncontracts and government programs (including everything from tax brackets tosocial security payments). Yet the CPI has also been very controversial: throughout the lastfifty years, economists, labor officials, politicians have debated the significance and accuracy ofthe index without reaching a clear conclusion. In an award-winning dissertation, Thomas Stapleford explored the history of the CPI and its role in American political economy, describing how and why this ambiguous and embattled statistic became a central part of labor relations, such that by 1953 a Congressional committee could label it "the most important single statistic" in the United States.Building on that project, this research extends the analysis, both chronologically (carrying itthrough the early 1970s, when Congress began to place automatic escalator clauses ingovernment programs) and comparatively (by examining the role of price indexes in othercountries and the formal adoption of other statistics into government programs). This new workwill form the basis for a book manuscript. Intellectual MeritAlthough economic statistics are a central part of the modern state, historians are onlybeginning to integrate historical study of these artifacts with 20th century political, social, andeconomic history, and no such narratives exist for the United States. Turning to a different field, economists have written several short histories of price index theory, but have not examined theCPI's historical role in industrial relations or economic policy. By analyzing both theoretical debates about price indexes and the changing political function of the CPI, this project demonstrates how a rich historical account of economic statistics can illuminate questions in American history, such as how the form of economic statistics both reflected and shaped national economic policy, and the history of economics, such as why the CPI remained at odds with neoclassical price index theory through most of the 20th century. This study addresses broader issues, including the role of technical expertise and interest-group pressure in public policy, and tensions between reliance on highly complex statistics in government and the traditional values of liberal democracy .Broader ImpactThe wide resonance of these questions and the continuing debate over the nature ofthe CPI suggest the potentially large audience for this work. As the only historicalanalysis of the political context and function of the CPI, for example, this research will be usefulfor public policy analysts and politicians. The investigator intends to attract a generalreadership beyond academic historians by keeping the monograph relatively short (~90,000words) and confining technical details to an appendix or academic journal articles. Furthermore,some of the key conclusions will be presented in more popular forums (e.g., articles in political magazines), and thereby contribute to the continuing public discussion about statistics, public policy, and the cost of living.

有界冲突：消费者物价指数与美国政治经济，1880-1985自1950年以来，消费者物价指数(CPI)一直是最有力的经济统计数据之一，主要是因为它纳入了工会合同和政府计划(包括从税级到社会保障支付的一切)中的自动扶梯条款。然而，CPI也一直备受争议：在过去的50年里，经济学家、劳工官员和政客们一直在争论该指数的重要性和准确性，但没有得出明确的结论。在一篇获奖论文中，托马斯·斯塔普福德探讨了CPI的历史及其在美国政治经济学中的作用，描述了这种模棱两可、四面楚歌的统计数据如何以及为什么成为劳资关系的核心部分，以至于到1953年，国会委员会可以将其列为美国“最重要的单一统计数据”。在这个项目的基础上，这项研究扩展了分析，既按时间顺序(从20世纪70年代初国会开始在政府计划中加入自动扶梯条款)，也按比较顺序(通过检查其他国家的价格指数的作用，以及其他统计数据在政府计划中的正式采用)。这项新工作将构成一本书手稿的基础。知识价值虽然经济统计是现代国家的核心部分，但历史学家才刚刚开始将对这些文物的历史研究与20世纪的政治、社会和经济史结合起来，而美国还不存在这样的叙述。转向另一个领域，经济学家们写了几本价格指数理论的简史，但没有研究CPI在劳资关系或经济政策中的历史作用。这个项目通过分析关于价格指数的理论辩论和CPI不断变化的政治功能，展示了丰富的经济统计历史记录如何解释美国历史上的问题，例如经济统计形式如何反映和塑造国家经济政策，以及经济史，例如为什么CPI在20世纪的大部分时间里一直与新古典价格指数理论相抵触。这项研究涉及更广泛的问题，包括技术专长和利益集团在公共政策中的作用，以及政府对高度复杂的统计数据的依赖与自由民主传统价值观之间的紧张关系。广泛的共鸣和关于CPI性质的持续辩论表明，这项工作可能有大量受众。例如，作为对CPI政治背景和功能的唯一历史分析，这项研究将对公共政策分析师和政治家有用。研究人员打算通过保持专著相对较短(约90000字)并将技术细节限制在附录或学术期刊文章中来吸引学术历史学家以外的普通读者。此外，一些关键结论将在更受欢迎的论坛上提出(例如，在政治杂志上发表文章)，从而有助于继续进行关于统计、公共政策和生活费用的公开讨论。