Decision Markets and Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting

知识价值。天气预报可能是最明显和最常用的科学预报类型，影响着日常大大小小的决策。天气预报提出了一个重要的问题，即不确定的预报信息应如何传达给决策者。与大多数对变化环境的预测一样，它们在预测内和预测间都表现出不确定性：预测内不确定性是指单个预测所固有的不确定性。预测间不确定性是指个别预测不同时产生的不确定性。关于预报内的不确定性，气象学家现在可以提供比以前更精确的预报估计中的不确定性信息，尽管目前这些信息很少到达最终用户，这在很大程度上是由于对如何有效传播这些信息的怀疑。关于预测间的不确定性，天气既是一个很有前途的应用，也是决策市场的一个丰富的测试平台，经济学家一直在研究一种技术，将对未来的各种判断加权并结合成一个共识预测。找到将天气信息传达给决策者的方法可以教会我们如何将不确定事件传达给广泛的受众。这个项目进行了一系列的实验，旨在解决三个广泛的问题：第一个问题是，人们如何利用不确定性信息做出决定？调查人员考察了人们在决策中使用天气预报概率信息的能力；研究信息的表达方式可能造成的差异；并确定当前的信息呈现方法是否会以任何系统的方式使决策产生偏差。第二个问题是：决策市场提供的信息有多准确？调查人员评估交易员专业知识的组合如何影响市场产生的信息的准确性，并检查交易资产的结构如何影响市场中的信息流动。第三个问题是：人们如何（应该）使用决策市场信息？调查人员研究在必须在事件发生之前做出决定的情况下市场的有效性。更广泛的影响。拟议的研究将产生改善天气信息交流的方法，使决策者受益。这些方法可能也适用于其他类型的预测。这项研究将更好地理解决策市场是如何运作的，这是一个对整个社会机构和组织的预测具有潜在重要性的问题。

Intellectual Merit. Weather forecasts are probably the most visible and commonly used type of scientific forecast, influencing decisions small and large on a daily basis. Weather forecasts raise important questions about how uncertain forecast information should be conveyed to decision makers. As with most forecasts of changing circumstances, they exhibit both within and between-forecast uncertainty: Within-forecast uncertainty refers to the uncertainty inherent to an individual forecast. Between-forecast uncertainty refers to the uncertainty created when individual forecasts differ. With regard to within-forecast uncertainty, meteorologists can now provide more exacting information about the uncertainty in their forecast estimates than was previously available, although little of this information presently reaches end users, in large part due to doubts about how to effectively disseminate it. With regard to between-forecast uncertainty, the weather is both a promising application and a rich test bed for decision markets, a technique economists have been studying for weighting and combining diverse judgments about the future into a consensus forecast. Finding ways to convey weather information to the decision makers that use it can teach us about how to communicate uncertain events to a wide audience. This project conducts a series of experiments aimed at three broad questions: The first question is, How do people use uncertainty information to make decisions? The investigators examine peoples ability to use probability information about weather forecasts in their decision making; study the difference the method of presentation of the information might make; and determine whether the present method of information presentation might biases decisions in any systematic way. The second question addressed is: How accurate is the information provided by decision markets? The investigators assess how the mix of trader expertise affects the accuracy of market generated information and examine how the structure of the assets traded affects the flow of information in the market. The third question is: How do (should) people use decision market information? The investigators study the effectiveness of the market in situations where decisions must be made well prior to the event.Broader Impact. The proposed research will yield methods for improving the communication of weather information to benefit decision makers. These methods are likely to be applicable to other types of forecasts as well. The research will provide a better understanding of how decision markets work, which is an issue of potential importance to forecasting in institutions and organizations throughout society.