Collaborative Research: CMG: Estimation of Ocean Currents and Wave-Eddy Turbulence from Float Observations

拟议的研究将发展一种新的数学方法，以更好地理解长期相关性对海水路径和扩散的行为和可预测性的贡献。非平衡统计力学和概率统计方法将被应用于获得不同复杂性的随机拉格朗日模型的层次。模型将使用首次退出时间概念和概率加权矩技术进行验证。该方法将利用比传统海洋学方法更短的观测序列，对测量噪声的影响具有鲁棒性，并考虑到波浪涡旋海洋场的不均匀性。数学技术的有效性将通过利用北太平洋和北大西洋的水下浮子观测估计拉格朗日统计和洋流来说明。为了分析海洋中漂浮物和漂浮物的运动，将开发强有力的数学技术。这些新技术的更高精度将改进对平均速度场的描述以及对海水路径和扩散的描述。计算效率可以使拉格朗日数据更有效地同化到数值海洋模型中。结果将有助于更好地理解和描述不同地理区域之间的海水交换，如大陆边缘和深海之间或亚热带和亚北极海洋环流之间。研究结果将有助于估算大陆边缘向深海的碳输出、亚热带地区二氧化碳的固存以及海洋中污染物的扩散等相关问题。更广泛的影响：该提案将涉及研究生和年轻科学家，包括来自海军研究生院（加利福尼亚州蒙特雷），南加州大学（加利福尼亚州洛杉矶）以及蒙特利地区其他机构（蒙特利湾水族馆研究所，莫斯兰丁海洋实验室和太平洋渔业环境实验室）的女性。流速和扩散率将用于预测加利福尼亚中部海岸的生物生产力。与来自英国南安普顿的研究人员合作该方法将应用于ARGO浮标在北大西洋的观测资料，以重建和了解海洋中深层环流的变化。这将有助于ARGO计划，即全球海洋和气候观测系统。活动将包括公开的科学交流以及向更广泛的社区作报告。为确保将研究成果传播给尽可能广泛的科学和公众受众，项目结果将及时发表在经同行评审的科学文献中；并在美国和国外的科学会议和研讨会上发表。临时工作报告和图形表示将在*.edu域的网站上发布。研究成果将以易于使用的形式，如视觉动画和微软PowerPoint演示文稿，转化为研究生和本科生课程的教学辅助资料，并将通过互联网提供给决策者和广大公众。这些教育材料也可用于研究生水平的海洋科学教科书，讨论使用拉格朗日浮子和漂浮物确定环流特性的问题。

0530748/05300893 The proposed study will develop a novel mathematical approach for better understanding contributions of correlations at long periods to the behavior and predictability of the path and dispersion of ocean waters. Methods of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and probabilistic statistics will be applied to obtain a hierarchy of stochastic Lagrangian models of varying complexity. Models will be verified using a first-exit time concept and probability weighted moment techniques. The approach will utilize shorter observation series than traditional methods used in oceanography, be robust to the effects of noise in the measurements, and account for inhomogeneity of wave-eddy oceanic fields. The effectiveness of the mathematical technique will be illustrated by estimating Lagrangian statistics and ocean currents using subsurface float observations from the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans.Robust mathematical techniques will be developed for the analysis of the motion of floats and drifters in the ocean. The higher accuracy of these new techniques will improve the description of mean velocity fields as well as those for the path and dispersal of ocean waters. Computational efficiencies may allow more efficient assimilation of Lagrangian data into numerical ocean models. Results will allow a better understanding and description of the exchange of ocean waters between various geographic regions such as the continental margin and the deep ocean or between Subtropical and Subarctic ocean gyres. Results will contribute to related problems such as estimating the carbon export from the continental margin to the deep sea, the sequestration of carbon dioxide in Subtropical regions, and the dispersal of pollutants in the ocean. Broader Impacts: The proposal will involve graduate students and young scientists including women from the Naval Postgraduate School (Monterey, CA), University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA) as well as other Monterey area institutions (Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, and Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory). Current velocity and diffusivity will be used to forecast biological productivity along the Central California Coast. In collaboration with researchers from the Southampton (U.K.) Oceanographic Center, the methods developed will be applied to ARGO float observations collected in the North Atlantic in order to reconstruct and understand variability of mid depth ocean circulation. This will contribute the ARGO program, the Global Ocean and Climate Observing Systems. Activities will include open scientific communications as well as presentations to the broader community. To assure the dissemination of the research to the broadest possible scientific and public audience, project results will be published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature in a timely manner; and presented at scientific conferences and workshops in the United States and abroad. Interim working papers and graphical representations will be posted on web- sites in the *.edu domain. Research results will be converted into teaching aids for graduate and undergraduate courses in easy-to-use formats, such as visual animations and Microsoft PowerPoint presentations and will also be available via Internet for policy-makers and the public at large. These educational materials may also be used for a graduate-level marine science textbook on problems of determining circulation properties using Lagrangian floats and drifters.