An Investigation of the Local and Regional Environment of Intense Convective Systems in West Africa

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Convective systems of a range of sizes and intensities are responsible for the wet season precipitation in West Africa. However, the largest share of the precipitation is contributed by convective systems whose minimum 85GHz brightness temperatures are in the lowest 10th percentile ( 135K), indicating the presence of intense, mature deep convection. This research project seeks to learn more about the development of these intense convective systems, formulating a research goal of establishing how the regional circulation, topography, and land surface state create an environment favorable to the development of intense convective systems. To achieve this research goal, the Principal Investigator will use a combination of analysis of high-resolution microwave satellite imagery and hydrometeorological modeling on the cloud-resolving scale, supported by surface observations and model reanalysis. The research tasks are aimed at revealing the vertical equivalent potential temperature profiles correlated with a high probability of intense convection and learning how triggering mechanisms such as diurnal surface heating gradients and large-scale disturbances might release conditional instability. The broader impact of the project is its direct application to improving the prediction of weather and climate from daily to seasonal time scales in West Africa. The research should contribute to a better understanding and representation of the interaction of the regional monsoon with the land surface state in the development of intense convective systems.