Categories and Causes of Bank Distress During the Great Contraction, 1929 to 1933, New Data from the Archives of the Board of Governors

关于防止大萧条引发的银行业恐慌的原因、后果和可能性，人们已经争论了70年。一些学者，如米尔顿•弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）和安娜•施瓦茨（Anna Schwartz）（1963年）以及本•伯南克（Ben Bernanke）（1983年），认为银行体系的崩溃将原本普通的衰退变成了一场灾难性的收缩。其他学者，如Peter Temin（1976）和Eugene White(1984)，将银行倒闭视为持续经济事件的症状，在经济衰退的传播中没有特殊作用。争论持续的一个原因是证据的性质。这场辩论的事实基础是上世纪30年代公布的总时间序列，以及近几十年来收集的银行资产负债表数据。这些来源都没有提供关于银行困境的性质和原因的全面信息。例如，没有人将暂时停止运营的银行与无限期停止运营的银行区分开来，也没有人将流动性不足困扰的银行与资不偿债困扰的银行区分开来。没有一个包含可能发生在全国所有银行的所有可能事件的信息。这个项目的目标就是提供这样的数据。调查人员发现了关于银行困境类别和银行停牌原因的精确、详细和全面的信息。新系列的资料来源是美国联邦储备委员会的档案。从1929年到1933年，理事会追踪了在美国经营的所有银行的状况变化，包括联邦储备系统的成员银行和非成员银行、州立银行和全国性银行、法人银行和私营银行。董事会还分析了各银行停牌的原因。银行业务部将这一信息记录在St. 6386系列表格上。该系列全面涵盖了从1929年1月到1933年3月全国银行假期的商业银行业。对影响每家银行的每个事件都进行了观察。这些事件包括主要事件，如开业、关闭、重新开业、接管和合并，以及次要事件，如联邦储备委员会成员、股本、包机类型甚至街道地址的变化。这些表格还包括每个银行在每笔交易当日的财务信息。这个项目将把数据电脑化并加以分析。该项目的潜在更广泛影响涉及四个广泛领域。首先，该项目将有助于阐明大萧条的起因和后果。为了防止未来发生类似的严重收缩，理解是必要的一步。其次，该项目将帮助学者了解金融体系、银行恐慌以及商业银行与更广泛经济之间的联系。第三，该项目涉及对银行监管重要的一系列广泛问题。第四，我的项目的教育部分包括一个指导和推广项目，该项目在鼓励少数族裔和妇女从事学术、法律和政府工作方面有着良好的记录。

The causes, consequences, and possibilities of preventing the banking panics of the Great Depression have been debated for seven decades. Some scholars, such as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz (1963) and Ben Bernanke (1983), believe the collapse of the banking system turned an otherwise ordinary downturn into a cataclysmic contraction. Other scholars, such as Peter Temin (1976) and Eugene White (1984), see bank failures as symptoms of ongoing economic events with no special role in the propagation of the downturn.One reason the debate continues is the nature of the evidence. The debate's factual foundations rest upon aggregate time series published during the 1930s and data on bank balance sheets assembled in recent decades. None of these sources provides comprehensive information about the nature and causes of bank distress. For example, none distinguishes banks that suspended operations temporarily from banks that ceased operating indefinitely, or banks bedeviled by illiquidity from banks beset by insolvency. None contains information about all possible events which could have occurred to all banks in the nation. The goal of this project is to provide such data. The investigator has discovered precise, detailed, and comprehensive information about categories of bank distress and causes of bank suspensions. The source for the new series is the archives of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. From 1929 though 1933, the Board of Governors tracked changes in the status of all banks operating in the United States, both members of the Federal Reserve System and nonmembers, state and national, incorporated and private. The Board also analyzed the cause of each bank suspension. The Division of Bank Operations recorded this information on the St. 6386 series of forms. The series comprehensively covered the commercial banking industry from January 1929 through the national banking holiday in March 1933. Observations existed for every event affecting every bank. These events included the major, such as openings, closings, reopenings, receiverships, and consolidations, and the minor, such as changes in Federal Reserve membership, capital stock, charter type, and even street address. The forms also included financial information for each bank on the date of each transaction. This project will computerize and analyze the data.The potential broader impacts of this project spans four broad areas. First, the project will help to illuminate the causes and consequences of the Great Depression. Understanding is a necessary step in efforts to prevent similarly severe contractions from occurring in the future. Second, the project will help scholars to understand financial systems, banking panics, and the links between commercial banking and the broader economy. Third, the project addresses a wide array of issues important for the regulation of banks. Fourth, the educational component of my project contains a mentoring and outreach program with a proven track record of encouraging minorities and women to pursue careers in academics, law, and government.