Collaborative Research: Dynamic Demand for New Durable Goods: An Empirical Model and Applications to Pricing and Welfare
合作研究:新型耐用品的动态需求:实证模型及其在定价和福利方面的应用
基本信息
- 批准号:0551348
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 15.09万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:2006
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2006-03-01 至 2009-02-28
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
In many industries, consumers choose not only what to purchase but when to purchase. However, economists lack compelling models of aggregate demand for this case and many papers specify static models in industries that clearly have dynamic features. In order to address this problem, this study extends several previous lines of research to specify and estimate the first dynamic random coefficients model of consumer demand designed for aggregate data. This study uses this method to analyze little-studied data sets on two visible consumer electronics industries, digital cameras and DVD players. The principal focus of this study is to develop new methods to estimate the dynamics of consumer demand with aggregate data.Using these methods, this work studies several important applied questions in these industries. In particular, this research seeks to evaluate why prices fall so dramatically in these industries, a ubiquitous feature of many new durable goods markets. While the typical explanations of intertemporal price discrimination, entry and cost declines have long been recognized, no previous work has provided an empirical evaluation of their relative importance. This study also investigates welfare and price indices in these industries. Standard price indices are problematic when consumers can delay purchase because indices do not handle situations in which quantity expands over time or when consumers use current price changes to predict the optimal purchase time. These features are naturally accounted for in the proposed model and are expected to be important in the data sets under consideration. Thus, another contribution of this study is that it provides answers to these questions, based on theoretically and empirically coherent models.There are two important broader implications of this study. First, a new methodology for estimating consumer demand is developed. Computer code and algorithms for implementing the methodology will be distributed on the World Wide Web by the authors. The proposed methods can be widely used by other researchers for other industries. Second, the results could have important broader implications for policy makers. For instance, the Coase conjecture suggests that if consumers know prices will fall in the future, a monopolist may have little market power even if it is protected by barriers to entry. Empirical analysis of this issue could be important for merger analysis and other questions faced by a competition authority. Research about how to evaluate price indices are of significant interest to government agencies that create these indices, and these indices impact the economy in a large variety of ways.
在许多行业,消费者不仅选择购买什么,而且选择何时购买。 然而,经济学家缺乏针对这种情况的令人信服的总需求模型,许多论文指定了明显具有动态特征的行业的静态模型。 为了解决这个问题,本研究扩展了以前的几条研究路线,指定和估计的第一个动态随机系数模型的消费者需求的总数据。 这项研究使用这种方法来分析两个可见的消费电子行业,数码相机和DVD播放器的研究很少的数据集。 本研究的主要目的是发展新的方法来估计消费者需求的动态与总的数据。使用这些方法,这项工作的研究在这些行业中的几个重要的应用问题。 特别是,这项研究旨在评估为什么这些行业的价格如此急剧下降,这是许多新耐用品市场的普遍特征。 虽然跨期价格歧视、进入和成本下降的典型解释早已得到承认,但以前的工作没有对它们的相对重要性提供经验评估。 本研究还调查了这些行业的福利和价格指数。 当消费者可能推迟购买时,标准价格指数就有问题,因为指数不能处理数量随时间推移而扩大的情况,或者消费者利用当前价格变化来预测最佳购买时间的情况。 这些功能自然占在拟议的模型,预计将是重要的数据集正在审议。 因此,本研究的另一个贡献是,它提供了答案,这些问题的基础上,理论和经验连贯的模型。 首先,一个新的方法来估计消费者的需求。 作者将在万维网上分发用于实施该方法的计算机代码和算法。 所提出的方法可以被其他研究人员广泛用于其他行业。 其次,研究结果可能对政策制定者产生重要的更广泛的影响。 例如,科斯猜想表明,如果消费者知道价格在未来会下降,垄断者即使受到进入壁垒的保护,也可能没有什么市场力量。 对这一问题的实证分析对于竞争主管机构的合并分析和其他问题可能很重要。 关于如何评估价格指数的研究对创建这些指数的政府机构非常感兴趣,这些指数以多种方式影响经济。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Marc Rysman其他文献
Moment Inequalities in the Context of Simulated and Predicted Variables
模拟和预测变量背景下的矩不等式
- DOI:
10.1920/wpm.cem.2018.2618 - 发表时间:
2018 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Hiroaki Kaido;Jiaxuan Li;Marc Rysman - 通讯作者:
Marc Rysman
Differentiation Strategies in the Adoption of Environmental Standards: LEED from 2000 to 2014
采用环境标准的差异化策略:2000年至2014年LEED
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2020 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Marc Rysman;Timothy S. Simcoe;Yanfei Wang - 通讯作者:
Yanfei Wang
Consumer Payment Choice: Measurement Topics
消费者支付选择:测量主题
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2010 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Marc Rysman - 通讯作者:
Marc Rysman
Irreversibility and Investment Dynamics for Chilean Manufacturing Plants: A Maximum Likelihood Approach
智利制造工厂的不可逆性和投资动态:最大似然法
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2006 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Olga Fuentes;Simon Gilchrist;Marc Rysman - 通讯作者:
Marc Rysman
Unobserved Product Differentiation in Discrete Choice Models: Estimating Price Elasticities and Welfare Effects
离散选择模型中未观察到的产品差异:估计价格弹性和福利效应
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2002 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Daniel A. Ackerberg;Marc Rysman - 通讯作者:
Marc Rysman
Marc Rysman的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Marc Rysman', 18)}}的其他基金
Collaborative Research: Estimation and computation of dynamic oligopoly and network effects models
合作研究:动态寡头垄断和网络效应模型的估计和计算
- 批准号:
0922629 - 财政年份:2009
- 资助金额:
$ 15.09万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
ITR/PE (SES): Empirical Studies of Network Effects
ITR/PE (SES):网络效应的实证研究
- 批准号:
0112527 - 财政年份:2001
- 资助金额:
$ 15.09万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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