Effects of Hurricane Katrina on Evacuation Intent: A Panel Study

卡特里娜飓风对疏散意图的影响：小组研究

• 批准号: 0555085
• 负责人: Hugh Gladwin
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-12-15 至 2007-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0555085&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Effects; Hurricane; Katrina; Evacuation; Intent

In this panel study a geo-coded sample of householders in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana who were first interviewed after Hurricane Ivan will be re-interviewed related to their hurricane knowledge, attitudes, behavior and future intent. The purpose is to assess the effects of different types or levels of experience with the 2005 hurricanes (including the "virtual" experience of watching the evacuations and hurricane impacts on television) on the attitudes and behavior, particularly those related to evacuation. Specific objectives include: 1) To document the extent to which each household experienced and responded to Hurricanes Katrina and/or Rita; 2) To determine how these households assessed their level of risk, including the information sources used; 3) To analyze household decision processes related to preparing and/or evacuating, including choice of routes. 4) To identify factors that promoted and constrained evacuation decisions; 5) To compare hurricane-related knowledge and attitudes before and after the 2005 hurricanes; 6) To analyze the relationship between the nature of their 2005 experiences and any revealed changes in attitudes, including future intentions; and 7) To develop a set of recommendations to policymakers and responders to improve hurricane response, including evacuation compliance, particularly among those at highest risk. An experienced interdisciplinary team of social scientists and a traffic engineer is designing and implementing the study, and interpreting the results. The research focuses on four areas which are essential considerations in any comprehensive model of evacuation behavior: Hurricane message and risk communication; time issues and decision constraints; transportation constraints; and high-risk populations. The major part of the data collection consists of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (in English or Spanish) of as many of the original GIS-based random sample of 3200 households as possible. The Co-PI's have extensive experience in hurricane behavioral research, including evacuation decision-modeling, family and household response, and GIS-based data analysis.Panel studies are rare in disaster research. This project will provide unique information about the effects of subsequent hurricanes on the attitudes and behavior of the same respondents. In addition to their reported experience, the GIS-based data set will allow the researchers to geographically locate each household in relation to subsequent storms, including an analysis of reported evacuation routes. Another factor adding to the intellectual merit of this work is that the decision-making model refined using these data will add to a better understanding of cognitive processes related to how people define and react to risk. The findings from this project will be widely disseminated to researchers and practitioners through papers and publications, as well as posting of the report and data on a website. The work will result in recommendations to improve evacuation compliance, and thus promote the safety of coastal populations, including those most at risk.

在这项小组研究中，将对佛罗里达、亚拉巴马、密西西比和路易斯安那州的住户进行地理编码抽样，这些住户在飓风伊万之后首次接受采访，他们将重新接受有关飓风知识、态度、行为和未来意图的采访。其目的是评估不同类型或水平的经验与2005年飓风（包括“虚拟”的经验，看电视上的疏散和飓风的影响）的态度和行为的影响，特别是那些与疏散。具体目标包括：1）记录每个家庭经历和应对卡特里娜和/或丽塔飓风的程度; 2）确定这些家庭如何评估其风险水平，包括使用的信息来源; 3）分析与准备和/或撤离有关的家庭决策过程，包括路线选择。4)找出促进和限制疏散决定的因素; 5）比较2005年飓风前后与飓风相关的知识和态度; 6）分析他们2005年经历的性质与任何揭示的态度变化（包括未来意图）之间的关系;为决策者和应对者制定一套建议，以改善飓风应对工作，包括遵守疏散规定，特别是在风险最高的人群中。一个由社会科学家和交通工程师组成的经验丰富的跨学科团队正在设计和实施这项研究，并解释结果。研究重点是四个领域，这是任何综合模型的疏散行为的基本考虑：飓风消息和风险沟通;时间问题和决策约束;运输约束;和高风险人群。数据收集的主要部分包括计算机辅助电话采访（英语或西班牙语）尽可能多的原始地理信息系统为基础的3200个家庭的随机抽样。Co-PI在飓风行为研究方面有着丰富的经验，包括疏散决策建模、家庭和住户响应以及基于GIS的数据分析。该项目将提供有关随后的飓风对同一受访者的态度和行为的影响的独特信息。除了他们报告的经验，基于GIS的数据集将使研究人员能够在地理上定位每个家庭与随后的风暴，包括分析报告的疏散路线。增加这项工作的智力价值的另一个因素是，使用这些数据改进的决策模型将有助于更好地理解与人们如何定义和应对风险有关的认知过程。该项目的调查结果将通过文件和出版物以及在网站上公布报告和数据，向研究人员和从业人员广泛传播。这项工作将提出建议，以改善疏散遵守情况，从而促进沿海人口，包括那些风险最大的人口的安全。