SGER: Geomorphic and Human Consequences of the October 8, 2005, Northern Pakistan Earthquake

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Geomorphic and human consequences of the October 8, 2005, Northern Pakistan EarthquakePI: Lewis A. Owen, Department of Geology, University of CincinnatiAt 8:50 am local time on October 8, 2005, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake, located in northern Pakistan, shook Kashmir, resulting in the deadliest quake in South Asia's recent history. Reports estimate the number of fatalities to be between 23,000 and 41,000, with at least 50,000 people injured, and 2.5 million left homeless. Heavy rains on October 11, exasperated the effects by slowing the relief efforts, and initiating floods and landslides. Assessing the topographic and human consequences of such an event is essential for remediation and seismic hazard mitigation, particularly given the immense population and rapid development of the region. Furthermore, determining the nature of the associated geomorphic effects is vital for human and environmental protection, for developing strategies for tectonic and geomorphic risk assessment, and for determining the role of earthquakes in landscape evolution. Only two previous studies (Garhwal Himalaya in 1991 and 1999) of the geomorphic effects of large earthquakes in the Himalaya has been undertaken, and therefore this recent event provides an opportunity to determine and quantify rates of landscape dynamics and compare it with the earlier studies to aid in hazard mitigation and geomorphic studies. The research will undertake a study of thetopographic and human consequences of this earthquake. This will include: 1) identification and assessment of the topographic and human consequences of the earthquake; 2) development of geologic and medical strategies for immediate remediation in the region; 3) characterization of the nature of earthquake-induced landforms; 4) assessment of the importance of tectonic-induced earth surface processes and landforms for the short- and long-term landscape evolution of Himalayan environments; 5) production of hazard maps for the region; and 6) proposed strategies for relief and remediate in the likelihood of future earthquakes.To examine the immediate topographic and human impact of the earthquake, the region will be visited in early November, 2005. This will allow documentation of the effects and will enable the investigators to help provide strategies for the recovery of the region. The study will focus on the two hardest hit regions, Muzaffarabad and Balakot, and will use a combination of mapping, geomorphic analysis and remote sensing techniques to measure and examine the nature and distribution of the effects. The results will be developed into geographical information system, which can be used by the local people for future planning, and will provide the foundation for a larger project that the investigators wish to develop and submit to NSF to examine seismic and geomorphic hazards throughout the Himalaya of northern Pakistan and India. Furthermore, the earthquake-induce earth surface processes will be quantified to help determine the whether the topographic evolution of Himalayan landscapes are climate- or tectonic-dominated. This award is cofunded with the Office of International Science and Engineering.