Modeling Agricultural Land-Use Changes in Inner Mongolia

内蒙古自治区总面积略低于120万平方公里，耕地面积占总面积的5.7%。曾经是辽阔的蒙古帝国的一部分，该地区漫长历史的大部分时间里，人口密度很低，人类在这些“巨大的草海”上的生态“足迹”可以忽略不计。随着1949年中华人民共和国中国的成立，所有这一切都改变了。从那时起，汉族和回族对IMAR的重新安置一直很可观。农林牧业不当行为对生态的破坏，现在已经和中国的任何一个地区一样广泛。随着羊毛和兽皮出口的增长，以及国内牛肉和羊肉消费的增加，过度放牧现象十分猖獗。1978年开始的改革时代，给长期被虐待的草原带来了挑战和机遇。中国领导的国家最高层现在真正意识到，如果要扭转这种损害，就必须出台和支持可持续的农林牧业政策。一些放牧家庭已被证明是土地的好管家，同时仍能赚取可接受的收入。如果系统地确定，这些家庭使用的战略可以作为该区域可持续发展的模式。可持续土地利用的努力之所以重要，原因有很多：帮助减轻贫困、限制年轻人向外迁移、保护草原环境、促进当地和区域改善水质以及缓解季节性沙尘暴。这项研究将通过家庭调查、遥感图像的时间序列分析和微观经济统计评估相结合，在两个IMAR旗帜(相当于县)确定成功的牧场和牧群管理战略。该项目的时间框架是从1980年到2006年。研究期间的影像评估可以向我们展示内蒙古干旱和半干旱草原农牧业实践的变化如何反映在可观察到的土地利用和土地覆盖变化中。通过GPS技术将提供有关其活动和做法的微观经济数据的调查家庭与土地利用/土地覆盖变化的研究联系起来，我们可以确定这些土地利用和土地覆盖的变化与以前和现在的家庭规模的牧场和牧群管理战略之间的关系。该项目将促进越来越多的专门针对了解社会经济驱动因素、自然环境以及土地利用和土地覆盖变化之间的动态的基础研究。成果还将通过确定当地牧民家庭和合作社制定的最佳牧场和牧群管理战略，帮助改进土地利用政策。它还将评估可通过在整个内蒙古更广泛地推广和采用健全的管理战略来实现的潜在的生态和经济改善。

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) incorporates slightly under 1.2 million km2 (120 million ha), with cultivated land accounting for 5.7 percent of this total. Once part of the vast Mongol Empire, population densities for much of the region's long history were low and the ecological "footprint" of humans on these "great grass seas" was negligible. All of this changed with the creation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Since then, resettlement of IMAR by Han and Hui ethnic groups has been considerable. Ecological damage from inappropriate agricultural, forestry, and husbandry practices is now as extensive as in any region of China. With growing exports of wool and hides, and the increase in domestic consumption of beef and lamb, overgrazing is rampant. The reform era, starting in 1978, brought both challenge and opportunity to the long-abused grasslands. There is now genuine awareness at the very highest levels of China's national government that sustainable policies in agriculture, forestry and husbandry must be introduced and supported if the damage is to be reversed. Some herding families have proven to be good stewards of the land while still earning acceptable incomes. If systematically identified, the strategies used by these families can serve as models for sustainable development of the region. Sustainable land-use efforts are important for a variety of reasons: helping to alleviate poverty, limit out-migration of the young, protection for the grassland environment, promoting local and regional improvement in water quality, and mitigation of seasonal dust storms. This research will identify successful pasture and herd-management strategies in two IMAR banners (county equivalents) through a combination of household surveys, time-series analysis of remotely sensed images, and micro-economic statistical evaluation. The time frame for the project is from 1980 to 2006. Imagery assessment over the study period can show us how changes in agricultural and husbandry practices in the arid and semi-arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia are reflected in observable land-use and land-cover changes. By linking survey households that provide micro-economic data on their activities and practices to a study of land use land/cover change via GPS technology, we can determine how these changes in land use and land cover are related to previous and current pasture and herd-management strategies at the household scale. This project will contribute to the growing body of basic research specifically directed at understanding the dynamics between socio-economic drivers, the physical environment, and land-use and land-cover changes. Results will also help improve land-use policies through the identification of best-practice pasture and herd-management strategies developed by local herding families and cooperatives. It will also allow for the evaluation of potential ecological and economic improvements that could be realized through the wider promotion and adoption of sound management strategies throughout Inner Mongolia.