Modeling Agricultural Land-Use Changes in Inner Mongolia

内蒙古自治区（IMAR）的土地面积略低于120万平方公里（1.2亿公顷），耕地占总面积的5.7%。这个地区曾经是庞大的蒙古帝国的一部分，在其漫长的历史中，人口密度很低，人类在这些“大草海”上的生态“足迹”可以忽略不计。这一切都随着1949年中华人民共和国的成立而改变。自那时以来，汉族和回族群体在伊玛尔人中的重新定居人数相当多。不适当的农业、林业和畜牧业做法造成的生态破坏现在与中国任何地区一样广泛。随着羊毛和兽皮出口的增长，以及国内牛肉和羊肉消费的增加，过度放牧十分猖獗。从1978年开始的改革时代，给长期遭受虐待的草原带来了挑战和机遇。中国中央政府的最高层现在真正意识到，如果要扭转这种损害，就必须在农业、林业和畜牧业方面采取和支持可持续的政策。事实证明，一些牧民家庭是土地的好管家，同时仍能赚取可接受的收入。这些家庭采用的战略如果得到系统的确定，可以作为该区域可持续发展的模式。可持续的土地利用工作很重要，原因有很多：有助于减轻贫困、限制年轻人向外迁移、保护草原环境、促进地方和区域水质的改善以及减轻季节性沙尘暴。这项研究将通过结合住户调查、遥感图像的时间序列分析和微观经济统计评价，确定两个IMAR旗（相当于县）的成功牧场和牧场管理战略。该项目的时间范围为1980年至2006年。研究期间的图像评估可以向我们展示内蒙古干旱和半干旱草原的农业和畜牧业实践的变化如何反映在可观察的土地利用和土地覆盖变化中。通过将提供关于其活动和做法的微观经济数据的调查家庭与通过全球定位系统技术进行的土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究联系起来，我们可以确定土地利用和土地覆盖的这些变化如何与以前和目前的家庭牧场和牧场管理战略相关联。该项目将促进越来越多的基础研究，这些研究专门针对了解社会经济驱动因素、物理环境以及土地使用和土地覆盖变化之间的动态。通过确定当地牧民家庭和合作社制定的最佳做法牧场和牧场管理战略，成果还将有助于改善土地使用政策。它还将允许评估通过在整个内蒙古更广泛地推广和采用健全的管理战略可以实现的潜在生态和经济改善。

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) incorporates slightly under 1.2 million km2 (120 million ha), with cultivated land accounting for 5.7 percent of this total. Once part of the vast Mongol Empire, population densities for much of the region's long history were low and the ecological "footprint" of humans on these "great grass seas" was negligible. All of this changed with the creation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Since then, resettlement of IMAR by Han and Hui ethnic groups has been considerable. Ecological damage from inappropriate agricultural, forestry, and husbandry practices is now as extensive as in any region of China. With growing exports of wool and hides, and the increase in domestic consumption of beef and lamb, overgrazing is rampant. The reform era, starting in 1978, brought both challenge and opportunity to the long-abused grasslands. There is now genuine awareness at the very highest levels of China's national government that sustainable policies in agriculture, forestry and husbandry must be introduced and supported if the damage is to be reversed. Some herding families have proven to be good stewards of the land while still earning acceptable incomes. If systematically identified, the strategies used by these families can serve as models for sustainable development of the region. Sustainable land-use efforts are important for a variety of reasons: helping to alleviate poverty, limit out-migration of the young, protection for the grassland environment, promoting local and regional improvement in water quality, and mitigation of seasonal dust storms. This research will identify successful pasture and herd-management strategies in two IMAR banners (county equivalents) through a combination of household surveys, time-series analysis of remotely sensed images, and micro-economic statistical evaluation. The time frame for the project is from 1980 to 2006. Imagery assessment over the study period can show us how changes in agricultural and husbandry practices in the arid and semi-arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia are reflected in observable land-use and land-cover changes. By linking survey households that provide micro-economic data on their activities and practices to a study of land use land/cover change via GPS technology, we can determine how these changes in land use and land cover are related to previous and current pasture and herd-management strategies at the household scale. This project will contribute to the growing body of basic research specifically directed at understanding the dynamics between socio-economic drivers, the physical environment, and land-use and land-cover changes. Results will also help improve land-use policies through the identification of best-practice pasture and herd-management strategies developed by local herding families and cooperatives. It will also allow for the evaluation of potential ecological and economic improvements that could be realized through the wider promotion and adoption of sound management strategies throughout Inner Mongolia.