Modeling Agricultural Land-Use Changes in Inner Mongolia

内蒙古自治区面积略低于120万平方公里（1.2亿公顷），耕地占总面积的5.7%。作为庞大的蒙古帝国的一部分，在该地区漫长的历史中，人口密度很低，人类在这些“大草海”上的生态“足迹”可以忽略不计。随着1949年中华人民共和国的成立，这一切都改变了。从那时起，汉族和回族对IMAR的安置已经相当可观。不适当的农业、林业和畜牧业做法造成的生态破坏现在是中国最广泛的。随着羊毛和兽皮出口的增长，以及国内牛肉和羊肉消费的增加，过度放牧是猖獗的。从1978年开始的改革时代，给长期被滥用的草原带来了挑战和机遇。现在，中国政府最高层真正意识到，如果要扭转损失，就必须在农业、林业和畜牧业方面引入和支持可持续政策。一些牧民家庭被证明是土地的好管家，同时还能获得可观的收入。如果系统地加以确定，这些家庭所使用的战略可以作为该区域可持续发展的模式。出于各种原因，可持续的土地使用努力是重要的：帮助减轻贫困、限制年轻人向外迁移、保护草原环境、促进地方和区域水质改善以及减轻季节性沙尘暴。本研究将通过家庭调查、遥感图像时序分析和微观经济统计评价相结合，确定两个IMAR旗（相当于县）成功的牧场和牛群管理战略。该项目的时间框架是从1980年到2006年。研究期间的影像评估可以揭示内蒙古干旱半干旱草原农牧活动的变化如何反映在可观测的土地利用和土地覆盖变化中。通过将提供有关其活动和实践的微观经济数据的调查家庭与通过GPS技术进行的土地利用/土地覆盖变化研究联系起来，我们可以确定土地利用和土地覆盖的这些变化与以前和当前家庭规模的牧场和牛群管理战略之间的关系。这一项目将有助于日益增多的基础研究，特别是旨在了解社会经济驱动因素、自然环境、土地利用和土地覆盖变化之间的动态关系。研究结果还将通过确定当地牧民家庭和合作社制定的最佳实践牧场和牛群管理战略，帮助改善土地使用政策。它还将允许评价通过在整个内蒙古更广泛地促进和采用健全的管理战略可以实现的潜在生态和经济改善。

The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) incorporates slightly under 1.2 million km2 (120 million ha), with cultivated land accounting for 5.7 percent of this total. Once part of the vast Mongol Empire, population densities for much of the region's long history were low and the ecological "footprint" of humans on these "great grass seas" was negligible. All of this changed with the creation of the People's Republic of China in 1949. Since then, resettlement of IMAR by Han and Hui ethnic groups has been considerable. Ecological damage from inappropriate agricultural, forestry, and husbandry practices is now as extensive as in any region of China. With growing exports of wool and hides, and the increase in domestic consumption of beef and lamb, overgrazing is rampant. The reform era, starting in 1978, brought both challenge and opportunity to the long-abused grasslands. There is now genuine awareness at the very highest levels of China's national government that sustainable policies in agriculture, forestry and husbandry must be introduced and supported if the damage is to be reversed. Some herding families have proven to be good stewards of the land while still earning acceptable incomes. If systematically identified, the strategies used by these families can serve as models for sustainable development of the region. Sustainable land-use efforts are important for a variety of reasons: helping to alleviate poverty, limit out-migration of the young, protection for the grassland environment, promoting local and regional improvement in water quality, and mitigation of seasonal dust storms. This research will identify successful pasture and herd-management strategies in two IMAR banners (county equivalents) through a combination of household surveys, time-series analysis of remotely sensed images, and micro-economic statistical evaluation. The time frame for the project is from 1980 to 2006. Imagery assessment over the study period can show us how changes in agricultural and husbandry practices in the arid and semi-arid grasslands of Inner Mongolia are reflected in observable land-use and land-cover changes. By linking survey households that provide micro-economic data on their activities and practices to a study of land use land/cover change via GPS technology, we can determine how these changes in land use and land cover are related to previous and current pasture and herd-management strategies at the household scale. This project will contribute to the growing body of basic research specifically directed at understanding the dynamics between socio-economic drivers, the physical environment, and land-use and land-cover changes. Results will also help improve land-use policies through the identification of best-practice pasture and herd-management strategies developed by local herding families and cooperatives. It will also allow for the evaluation of potential ecological and economic improvements that could be realized through the wider promotion and adoption of sound management strategies throughout Inner Mongolia.