Market Creation as a Policy Tool for Transformational Change

以前不存在的市场的出现可以成为深刻的社会变革的动因。经济学家已经对市场如何产生有效的资源配置有了广泛的了解，并催生了一系列工具，供政策分析师用来评估替代政策对福利的提高。但政策分析师对新市场可能对价值观、激励机制和制度产生的并不罕见的变革效应缺乏类似的、综合的理解，而这些在标准经济分析中通常被认为是不变的。打算或担心新市场产生更广泛影响的政策制定者和公众没有任何实质性的指导。本项目整合并推进了对市场引发的变革的理解，从而开发了一套政策分析工具，以比较和评估寻求通过促进市场变革实现其目标的备选政策的效果。特别是，本研究试图理解：1)市场诱导转型的潜力，即由于市场的存在而导致的行为者、激励和制度的变化，如何导致与仅考虑最狭义的市场提高效率潜力时可能预期的不同结果（有些有益，有些可能不那么有益）；2)在政策分析师和规划者的计算中，在多大程度上有可能系统地考虑这种由市场引起的动态经济变化的潜力。本项目通过以下方式解决这些问题：1)收集和发展过去市场引发的转型的案例研究；Ii)评估和必要时修改几个理论框架及其相应的数学模型，旨在捕捉这种转变的关键特征；Iii)利用案例研究和实证分析的结果校准这些模型；iv)使用这些模型建立一个决策工具集，用于评估和比较使用市场转型与其他可能的政策方法的政策。更广泛的影响。该项目旨在加深对市场如何引发人类社会变革的科学理解。它还将带来几个更广泛的影响。该项目将气候变化作为其政策挑战的范例，旨在为当前的政策辩论提供有用的见解。例如，该项目可以帮助政策制定者更好地理解碳税和交易体系在产生技术和/或政治变革方面的不同能力，并有助于判断“有限部门的深度减排”和“许多部门的有限减排”的优点，作为以可能预防潜在的突然气候变化的速度诱导技术和行为变革的最佳手段。市场导向转型的主题也包含了当今美国在国内外面临的许多最紧迫的政策问题。通过项目团队的初步调查和与政策制定者和政策界的广泛互动，该项目将有助于传播决策工具和概念，这些工具和概念可以提高我国政府更有效地利用和管理市场转型的能力，并将其作为广泛领域的政策工具。

SBE-0624354Robert J. LempertSteven W. PopperRand CorporationThe appearance of markets where they have not previously existed can be an agent of profound societal change. Economists have developed an extensive understanding of how markets can produce an efficient allocation of resources and spawned an array of tools that policy analysts use to assess the welfare enhancements of alternative policies. But policy analysts lack any similar, integrated understanding of the not-uncommon transformational effects new markets can have on values, incentives, and institutions, all most often assumed to be invariant in standard economic analyses. Policy makers and the public who intend or fear new market's broader consequences are left without any substantive guidance.This project both integrates and advances the understanding of market-induced transformations, thereby developing a set of policy analytic tools to compare and assess the effects of alternative policies that seek to achieve their goals by fostering market transformations. In particular, this study seeks to understand: 1) how the potential for market-induced transformations, that is, changes in actors, incentives and institutions owing to the presence of markets -- can lead to different outcomes (some beneficial some perhaps less so) than might be expected when considering only the most narrowly defined efficiency-enhancing potential of markets; and 2) to what extent it might be possible to account for this potential for dynamic market-induced economic change systematically in the calculations of policy analysts and planners. This project addresses these questions by: i) gathering and developing case studies of past market-induced transformations; ii) evaluating and modifying as necessary several theoretical frameworks and their corresponding mathematical models that aim to capture the key features of such transformations; iii) calibrating these models using the findings from the case studies and empirical analysis; and iv) using these models to establish a decision tool set for assessing and comparing policies using market transformations against other possible policy approaches. Broader Impacts. This project aims to deepen scientific understanding of how markets can induce transformations in human societies. It will also provide several broader impacts. The project uses climate change as its exemplar policy challenge and aims to provide useful insight into current policy debates. For instance, the project may help policy makers better understand any different abilities of carbon taxes and trading systems to produce technological and/or political transformations and help adjudicate the merits of "deep reductions across limited sectors" and "limited reductions over many sectors" as the best means for inducing technological and behavioral transformations at a rate that might forestall potential abrupt climate change. The theme of market-induced transformations also encompasses many of the most pressing policies issues facing the United States today at home and abroad. Through its initial inquiries and extensive interaction with policy makers and the policy community by the project team, this project will help disseminate decision tools and concepts that can improve our government's ability to more effectively exploit and manage market transformations as a policy tool in a wide variety of areas.