Mathematical Sciences: Global Change Research Program

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9634300 Lempert Although technology issues appear vital to climate-change policy, the Integrated Assessment community currently lacks a suitable framework for considering the implications of new technology for policy choices. The fundamental problem is the unpredictability of the evolution of technology over the time spans of relevance. Currently available decision-analysis tools are predicated on the ability to craft some credible best- estimate prediction of the future. However, policy problems such as climate change face extreme uncertainties for which it is not possible to construct well-characterized best estimates. In such cases, prediction-based policy analysis is often unable to resolve acrimonious debate among stakeholders who believe in different best estimates, and often results in constrained thinking about possible policy options. In their recent work the investigators have demonstrated an alternative framework for policy analysis that does not depend on making best-estimate predictions of the future. The approach is based on two concepts called adaptive strategies and exploratory modeling. Exploratory modeling treats problems having massive uncertainty by conducting a large number of computer simulation- experiments on many plausible formulations of the problem, rather than using computer resources to increase the resolution of a single best-estimate model. Adaptive-decision strategies focus on modeling environmental policies where decision-makers can make midcourse corrections based on observations of the relevant environmental and economic systems. In this research project the investigators will use the exploratory modeling/adaptive strategies framework to examine how the potential of new technology should affect near- term climate change policy choices. The research has two specific goals: 1) demonstrate and advance the capabilities of the exploratory modeling/ adaptive strategies framework, and 2) examine a central climate-change po licy question -- under what conditions should society pursue technology-specific policies (e.g., tax credits, subsidies, or government procurements) in addition to carbon taxes? Policy-makers must often make decisions whose ultimate success depends on factors that cannot be predicted at the time the decision is made. However, currently available decision- analysis tools used to help policy-makers compare alternative policies are predicated on the ability to craft some credible best-estimate prediction of the future. Under conditions of extreme uncertainty, prediction-based policy analysis is often unable to resolve acrimonious debate among stakeholders who believe in different best estimates, and often results in constrained thinking about possible policy options. Climate change provides an important example. Future technology developments could have profound impacts on climate-change policy, but no one can accurately predict the impacts of technology on the future costs of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, nor the effects that various policies will have on these costs. In recent work, the investigators have demonstrated a new framework for policy analysis that does not depend on making best-estimate predictions of the future. The approach is based on two concepts, called adaptive strategies and exploratory modeling, that take advantage of the new analytic capabilities provided by recent computer technology. Exploratory modeling treats problems having extreme uncertainty by conducting computer simulation-experiments on a very large number of plausible estimates of the future and using sampling strategies and data visualization to find important patterns in the results. Adaptive-decision focus on modeling environmental policies where decision- makers can make midcourse corrections based on observations of the relevant environmental and economic systems. In this research project, the investigators will use the exploratory modeling/adaptive strategies framework to examine how the potential of new technology should affect near-term climate change policy choices. In particular, the project will: 1) demonstrate and advance the capabilities of the exploratory modeling/adaptive strategies framework, and 2) examine a central climate-change policy question -- under what conditions should society pursue technology-specific policies (e.g., tax credits, subsidies, or government procurements) in addition to carbon taxes?