Informing Climate-Related Decisions with Earth Systems Models

利用地球系统模型为气候相关决策提供信息

• 批准号: 1049208
• 负责人: Robert Lempert
• 金额: $ 130万
• 依托单位: Rand Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-03-01 至 2015-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049208&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Informing; Climate; Related; Decisions; Earth

This project aims to provide a deeper understanding of how best to use information from next-generation Earth System Models (EaSMs) to improve climate-related decisions. The project will explore the use of climate information from two sources: high-resolution, dynamically downscaled, regional projections from Atmospheric Ocean General Circulation Models and estimates of extreme climate behaviors from ensembles of runs from Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity. Decision-support applications in biodiversity and in water resource management will provide real-world experimental test beds to examine the value to decision makers of this climate information at alternative levels of spatial and temporal resolution and with alternative characterizations of uncertainty. Field evaluations and psychological experiments will formally measure the contributions of the alternative types of climate information towards better decisions. These three lines of research will combine to address two questions that are central to the effective production and use of information from EaSMs: (1) What is the value of climate information with increased spatial and temporal resolution? (2) What is the value of imprecise and/or deeply uncertain information about potentially extreme behaviors of the climate system?The project will make significant contributions towards the EaSM interdisciplinary grand challenge by providing concrete evidence as to what types of climate information and which characterizations of uncertainty prove most valuable to those facing climate-related decisions. The nation's investment in next-generation EaSMs aims not only to improve fundamental scientific understanding of the climate and related systems, but also to improve decision makers' abilities to proactively plan for the impacts of climate variability and change. Decades of research on decision making and decision support confirm that merely providing additional information in complicated situations such as those posed by climate change does not necessarily improve the quality of the decisions. The results from this research may prove valuable in guiding those designing future EaSMs and the information systems that support them. In addition, the project aims to (a) improve methods for incorporating climate information into biodiversity and water management decisions; (b) advance the science of decision support, in particular the understanding of information needs, characterizations of uncertainty, and the evaluation of decision support activities; and (c) help train the multidisciplinary workforce the nation requires to respond to climate change.

该项目旨在更深入地了解如何最好地利用下一代地球系统模型（EaSM）的信息来改进与气候相关的决策。 该项目将探索使用两个来源的气候信息：来自大气海洋环流模型的高分辨率、动态缩小的区域预测，以及来自中等复杂性地球系统模型的运行集合对极端气候行为的估计。 生物多样性和水资源管理中的决策支持应用将提供现实世界的实验试验台，以在不同的空间和时间分辨率水平以及不同的不确定性特征下检验气候信息对决策者的价值。 现场评估和心理实验将正式衡量替代类型的气候信息对更好决策的贡献。 这三个研究领域将结合起来解决对于有效生产和使用 EaSM 信息至关重要的两个问题：(1) 空间和时间分辨率提高的气候信息的价值是什么？ (2) 关于气候系统潜在极端行为的不精确和/或高度不确定的信息有什么价值？该项目将为哪些类型的气候信息和哪些不确定性特征对面临气候相关决策的人最有价值提供具体证据，从而为 EaSM 跨学科重大挑战做出重大贡献。 国家对下一代 EaSM 的投资不仅旨在提高对气候及相关系统的基本科学认识，而且旨在提高决策者主动规划气候变率和变化影响的能力。 数十年的决策和决策支持研究证实，仅在气候变化等复杂情况下提供额外信息并不一定能提高决策质量。 这项研究的结果可能对指导未来 EaSM 及其支持信息系统的设计者具有重要价值。 此外，该项目旨在 (a) 改进将气候信息纳入生物多样性和水管理决策的方法； (b) 推进决策支持科学，特别是对信息需求、不确定性特征的理解以及对决策支持活动的评估； (c) 帮助培训国家应对气候变化所需的多学科劳动力。