HSD: Extreme Weather Events, State Interventions, and Pastoral Livelihoods: Social and Ecological Impacts of Spring Snowstorms on the Tibetan Plateau

HSD：极端天气事件、国家干预和牧民生计：青藏高原春季暴风雪的社会和生态影响

• 批准号: 0624315
• 负责人: Julia Klein
• 金额: $ 61.9万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-11-01 至 2013-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0624315&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HSD; Extreme; Weather; Events; State

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, with the greatest potential effects on subsistence-oriented societies. On the Tibetan Plateau, extreme spring snowstorms are reportedly becoming more frequent and severe. The snowstorms of 1998, in which millions of livestock perished, were particularly devastating. For the first time, the Chinese government called for emergency food relief for the herders, and implemented an immediate livestock restocking effort. The overall goal of this project is to investigate the social and ecological implications of both the snowstorms and the state restocking programs, and more broadly, pastoralists' changing vulnerability to climate change. The interdisciplinary research team will draw on both climate impact analyses and vulnerability assessments to investigate how socio-economic status, ecological range condition, and state restocking programs affect herder well-being and vulnerability to severe spring snowstorms. This will be based on pre-1998 storm, immediate post-1998 storm, and contemporary data. Study methods will include interviews, participant observation, ecological field experiments, remote sensing, and climate analyses. Based on these findings, investigators will parameterize and run a coupled agent-based and ecosystem model to assess herder well-being and vulnerability to extreme storms under a suite of snowstorm frequency/intensities, management styles, and state policies. The researchers hypothesize that socioeconomic differentiation, links to regional markets, and grassland management strategies will be the main factors associated with vulnerability to snowstorms. They further hypothesize that the ecological and socio-economic changes which result from restocking will negatively affect herder well-being in the longer-term; however, herders from wetter versus drier Tibetan grassland regions will experience differing vulnerabilities. Results from this project will elucidate what ecological and socio-political features enhance or reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events under environmental and political change. Research results will also highlight important interactions and feedbacks between the coupled human-environment system under global change. This project involves an international, multi-cultural, multi-lingual team of American, Chinese, and Tibetan assistants, graduate students, and both junior and senior researchers. It brings together experts in the fields of ecology, computer science, animal science, remote sensing, anthropology, geography, and political ecology. By conducting both detailed, ethnographic work and rigorous ecological experiments, at a level of detail not usually found in integrated human-ecological studies, and using both as inputs to integrative modeling, this project employs a comprehensive approach to understanding the dynamics of human and social dynamics under global change. This project provides academic training for U.S., Chinese, and Tibetan students. Based on their experiences conducting this project, the lead researchers will teach a course entitled 'Interdisciplinary Research in the Environmental Sciences' at Colorado State University, to educate and inform students about how to successfully conduct interdisciplinary research. Given the immediate policy relevance of this project, the researchers will communicate project findings to policy makers and development personnel working in China through two project stakeholder workshops. Results from this research will enhance understanding of vulnerability and livelihood of marginalized populations to political-economic and climatic change.

据预测，气候变化将增加极端天气事件的频率和强度，对以生存为导向的社会产生最大的潜在影响。 在青藏高原，极端的春季暴风雪据报道变得更加频繁和严重。 1998年的暴风雪造成了特别严重的破坏，数百万牲畜在暴风雪中丧生。 中国政府第一次呼吁为牧民提供紧急粮食救济，并立即实施牲畜补充工作。 该项目的总体目标是调查雪灾和国家重新放养计划的社会和生态影响，以及更广泛地说，牧民对气候变化的脆弱性不断变化。 跨学科研究小组将利用气候影响分析和脆弱性评估来调查社会经济状况，生态范围条件和国家重新放养计划如何影响牧民的福祉和对严重春季暴风雪的脆弱性。 这将基于1998年前的风暴，1998年后的风暴和当代数据。 研究方法将包括访谈、参与观察、生态实地实验、遥感和气候分析。 根据这些发现，研究人员将参数化并运行一个耦合的基于代理的生态系统模型，以评估牧民的福祉和在一系列暴风雪频率/强度，管理风格和国家政策下对极端风暴的脆弱性。 研究人员假设，社会经济分化，与区域市场的联系以及草原管理策略将是与暴风雪脆弱性相关的主要因素。 他们进一步假设，从长远来看，重新放养所导致的生态和社会经济变化将对牧民的福祉产生负面影响;然而，来自西藏草原湿润地区和干旱地区的牧民将经历不同的脆弱性。 该项目的结果将阐明在环境和政治变化下，哪些生态和社会政治特征增强或减少了对极端天气事件的脆弱性。 研究结果还将突出全球变化下耦合的人类-环境系统之间的重要相互作用和反馈。 这个项目涉及一个国际化的，多文化的，多语言的团队，包括美国，中国和西藏的助理，研究生，以及初级和高级研究人员。 它汇集了生态学、计算机科学、动物科学、遥感、人类学、地理学和政治生态学领域的专家。 通过进行详细的，民族志工作和严格的生态实验，在一个详细的水平通常不会发现在综合人类生态研究，并使用两者作为输入的综合建模，该项目采用了一种全面的方法来了解人类和社会动态下的全球变化的动态。 该项目为美国，中国和西藏学生。 根据他们进行这个项目的经验，主要研究人员将在科罗拉多州立大学教授一门名为“环境科学跨学科研究”的课程，教育和告知学生如何成功地进行跨学科研究。 鉴于该项目的直接政策相关性，研究人员将通过两个项目利益相关者研讨会向在中国工作的政策制定者和发展人员传达项目结果。这项研究的结果将加强对边缘化人口在政治经济和气候变化面前的脆弱性和生计的了解。