Developing the capability to forecast extreme Space Weather events

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Extreme Space Weather is driven by large-scale eruptions from the Sun called coronal mass ejections. Upon arrival at the Earth, these produce amazing auroral displays but also endanger satellites and astronauts, and disrupt communications and power grids. Forecasting these events is of primary importance to the UK MET Office, one of three centres world-wide providing round-the-clock space weather predictions. This project, in collaboration with the UK MET Office, will develop state-of-the-art plasma simulations to forecast extreme Space Weather and develop advanced statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainties in their prediction.