Collaborative Proposal:The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic System

项目摘要标题：云及其帮凶在调节北极轨迹中的作用拟议努力的首要目标是确定和评估云特性、表面辐射通量、水平热量和水分输送、大尺度环流模式、海冰范围和过去北极变化温和时的融化开始之间的关系，其特征将是永久冰的急剧流失。随着北极冰层的消失，过去不重要的某些与云有关的相互作用可能会发挥更类似中纬度的作用，例如产生整体冷却而不是变暖的影响。拟议的努力与ARCSS计划的新方向相一致，因为它将提高我们对北极系统各组成部分之间联系的理解，建立在以前的工作基础上，整合现有数据集，解决跨领域问题，调查空间和时间变化的原因，并调查一系列空间和时间尺度上各组成部分之间的关系。知识价值：现有的数据集和再分析产品将与全球气候模式（GCM）模拟相结合，以确定和评估影响下沉流地表辐射通量的重要因素，以及这些影响如何变化：1）过去在气候系统的大尺度和大幅度变化期间; 2）过去的模型模拟之间; 3）由于本地和远程变化; 4）季节性; 5）以及未来条件的模型预测。预期的结果是更全面地了解影响北极云特性的过程和条件、大气环流模型模拟观测到的云特性和影响云特性的因素之间关系的能力，其中与云有关的参数对北极冰损失产生增强或抑制作用，以及随着北极系统继续朝着新的状态发展，这些影响在未来将如何演变。更广泛的影响：就其性质而言，该项目是跨学科和交叉的。它侧重于北极内外气候系统各组成部分之间的关系和相互作用，以及这些关系在未来可能如何变化。最初针对的关系包括各种空间和时间尺度。因此，这项工作的更广泛影响自然在整个科学界广泛存在。三所大学的研究生将直接和/或间接参与该项目-其中一所大学明确在威斯康星州-其方法和结果将为与气候变化有关的课程提供新的素材。最终，调查结果应有助于更好地为决策者提供信息，这将使整个社会受益。华盛顿大学的极地科学中心刚刚完成了由西雅图的太平洋科学中心主办的第一届年度极地科学周末。展览、示范和讲座相结合，向大约5 000名参与者介绍了极地研究的各个方面，包括K-12班和一般公众。将为计划于2008年和2009年举行的活动开发一个以云在北极变化中的作用为基础的单元。

PROJECT ABSTRACTTitle: The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic The overarching objectives of the proposed effort are to identify and evaluate relationships between cloud properties, surface radiation fluxes, horizontal heat and moisture transport, large-scale circulation patterns, sea ice extent, and melt onset in past conditions when Arctic change was moderate, and in the future, which models project will be characterized by dramatic loss of permanent ice. Certain cloud-related interactions that were insignificant in the past may play more mid-latitude-like roles as the Arctic's ice disappears, such as exerting an overall cooling rather than warming influence. The proposed effort is aligned with the new directions of the ARCSS program, as it will improve our understanding of linkages among components of the Arctic system, build upon previous work and integrate existing data sets, address cross-cutting questions, investigate causes of spatial and temporal variability, and investigate relationships among components in a range of space and time scales. Data products are not expected from this study, thus a specific plan for data archival is not included.Intellectual merit: Existing data sets and reanalysis products will be combined with global climate model (GCM) simulations to identify and evaluate important factors affecting downwelling surface radiation fluxes, and how these influences vary: 1) in the past during large-scale and large-magnitude shifts in the climate system; 2) among model simulations of the past; 3) owing to local and remote variability; 4) seasonally; 5) and in model projections of future conditions. The expected outcome is a more complete understanding of processes and conditions affecting Arctic cloud properties, the ability of GCMs to simulate observed relationships among cloud properties and factors that influence them, which cloud-related parameters exert either enhancing or dampening effects on Arctic ice loss, and how those effects can be expected to evolve in the future as the Arctic system continues on its trajectory toward a new state.Broader Impacts: By its very nature, this project is interdisciplinary and cross-cutting. It focuses on relationships and interactions among various components of the climate system, both within and outside the Arctic, and how these relationships might change in the future. The relationships initially targeted encompass a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The broader impacts of the work, consequently, are naturally extensive across the scientific community. Graduate students at three universities will participate directly and/or indirectly in the project -- one explicitly at the University of Wisconsin -- and the methodology and results will provide new fodder for courses related to climate change. Ultimately the findings should contribute to better informing policy makers, which will benefit society as a whole. The Polar Science Center at the University of Washington has just completed its first annual Polar Science Weekend hosted by the pacific Science Center in Seattle. A combination of exhibits, demonstrations and lectures brought various aspects of polar research to approximately 5,000 participants, including K-12 classes and the general public. A module based on the roles of clouds in Arctic change will be developed for the events planned for 2008 and 2009.