Improving Hurricane Forecasts with Integrated Water Vapor Observations

通过综合水蒸气观测改进飓风预报

• 批准号: 0633587
• 负责人: John Braun
• 金额: $ 35.25万
• 依托单位: University Corporation For Atmospheric Res
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-01 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0633587&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Improving; Hurricane; Forecasts; Integrated; Water

The objective of this research proposal is to improve the forecasts of hurricane track and intensity using continuous observations of integrated water vapor. This proposal seeks funds to install and operate a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the Caribbean. They will be equipped with meteorological sensors and the data will be analyzed to retrieve precipitable water vapor (PW). The derived PW data will then be assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate what impact they have on hurricane forecasts. These assimilated data are expected to significantly improve moisture fields within the model, leading to a better description of the water budget, and therefore improved hurricane intensity and track predictions.Intellectual Merit: This work would generate the first continuous and all-weather observations of PW within the Caribbean. Hurricanes rely on warm ocean surfaces to initiate and evolve. The evaporation of water is the dominant way the atmosphere interacts with the ocean. It is expected that these PW values will improve model analysis fields and subsequent hurricane predictions.Broader Impacts: The network will have significant broader impacts for earth sciences by enhancing two additional networks of stations that are being installed by the National Geodetic Survey and the United States Geological Survey to study geodetic deformation of the region and tsunami warning systems. All raw data that will be collected will be archived at UNAVCO (http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html) for geodetic scientists to use, and derived data products such as PW will be distributed to interested users using the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM) data distribution system (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/). For earth scientists, these data provide a set of observations to study and understand the tectonic deformation and motions of the Caribbean.

这项研究建议的目的是通过对综合水汽的连续观测来改进对飓风路径和强度的预测。该提案寻求在加勒比地区安装和运行全球定位系统(GPS)站网络的资金。它们将配备气象传感器，并将对数据进行分析，以提取可降水量(PW)。然后，得出的PW数据将被同化到天气研究和预报(WRF)模型中，以评估它们对飓风预报的影响。这些同化数据预计将显著改善模式内的水湿场，导致更好地描述水收支，从而改善飓风强度和路径预测。飓风依靠温暖的海洋表面来启动和发展。水的蒸发是大气与海洋相互作用的主要方式。预计这些PW值将改善模式分析领域和随后的飓风预测。更广泛的影响：该网络将通过加强国家大地测量局和美国地质调查局正在安装的研究该地区大地形变和海啸警报系统的另外两个台站网络，对地球科学产生重大的更广泛的影响。将收集的所有原始数据将在UNAVCO(http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html))存档，供大地科学家使用，并使用Unidata本地数据管理器(LDM)数据分发系统(http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/).)将PW等衍生数据产品分发给感兴趣的用户对于地球科学家来说，这些数据为研究和理解加勒比海的构造变形和运动提供了一套观测资料。