Improving Hurricane Forecasts with Integrated Water Vapor Observations

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The objective of this research proposal is to improve the forecasts of hurricane track and intensity using continuous observations of integrated water vapor. This proposal seeks funds to install and operate a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the Caribbean. They will be equipped with meteorological sensors and the data will be analyzed to retrieve precipitable water vapor (PW). The derived PW data will then be assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate what impact they have on hurricane forecasts. These assimilated data are expected to significantly improve moisture fields within the model, leading to a better description of the water budget, and therefore improved hurricane intensity and track predictions.Intellectual Merit: This work would generate the first continuous and all-weather observations of PW within the Caribbean. Hurricanes rely on warm ocean surfaces to initiate and evolve. The evaporation of water is the dominant way the atmosphere interacts with the ocean. It is expected that these PW values will improve model analysis fields and subsequent hurricane predictions.Broader Impacts: The network will have significant broader impacts for earth sciences by enhancing two additional networks of stations that are being installed by the National Geodetic Survey and the United States Geological Survey to study geodetic deformation of the region and tsunami warning systems. All raw data that will be collected will be archived at UNAVCO (http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html) for geodetic scientists to use, and derived data products such as PW will be distributed to interested users using the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM) data distribution system (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/). For earth scientists, these data provide a set of observations to study and understand the tectonic deformation and motions of the Caribbean.