Improving Hurricane Forecasts with Integrated Water Vapor Observations

本研究计划的目的是利用连续的综合水汽观测来改善对飓风路径和强度的预报。这项建议寻求资金，以便在加勒比地区安装和操作一个全球定位系统（GPS）台站网络。它们将配备气象传感器，并分析数据以检索可降水量（PW）。然后，得到的PW数据将被吸收到天气研究与预报（WRF）模型中，以评估它们对飓风预报的影响。这些同化的数据有望显著改善模型内的湿度场，从而更好地描述水收支，从而改进飓风强度和路径预测。知识价值：这项工作将产生加勒比海地区第一次连续的全天候PW观测。飓风依赖于温暖的海洋表面来形成和进化。水的蒸发是大气与海洋相互作用的主要方式。预计这些PW值将改善模式分析领域和随后的飓风预测。更广泛的影响：通过加强国家大地测量局和美国地质调查局正在安装的另外两个台站网络，该网络将对地球科学产生重大的更广泛的影响，以研究该地区的大地测量变形和海啸预警系统。收集到的所有原始数据都将存档于联安办事处（http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html），供大地测量学科学家使用，而诸如PW等衍生数据产品将通过联安办事处本地数据管理器数据分发系统（http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/）分发给感兴趣的用户。对于地球科学家来说，这些数据为研究和理解加勒比海的构造变形和运动提供了一套观测数据。

The objective of this research proposal is to improve the forecasts of hurricane track and intensity using continuous observations of integrated water vapor. This proposal seeks funds to install and operate a network of Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the Caribbean. They will be equipped with meteorological sensors and the data will be analyzed to retrieve precipitable water vapor (PW). The derived PW data will then be assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to evaluate what impact they have on hurricane forecasts. These assimilated data are expected to significantly improve moisture fields within the model, leading to a better description of the water budget, and therefore improved hurricane intensity and track predictions.Intellectual Merit: This work would generate the first continuous and all-weather observations of PW within the Caribbean. Hurricanes rely on warm ocean surfaces to initiate and evolve. The evaporation of water is the dominant way the atmosphere interacts with the ocean. It is expected that these PW values will improve model analysis fields and subsequent hurricane predictions.Broader Impacts: The network will have significant broader impacts for earth sciences by enhancing two additional networks of stations that are being installed by the National Geodetic Survey and the United States Geological Survey to study geodetic deformation of the region and tsunami warning systems. All raw data that will be collected will be archived at UNAVCO (http://www.unavco.org/unavco.html) for geodetic scientists to use, and derived data products such as PW will be distributed to interested users using the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM) data distribution system (http://www.unidata.ucar.edu/about/). For earth scientists, these data provide a set of observations to study and understand the tectonic deformation and motions of the Caribbean.