SGER: Vulnerability Beliefs and Actions Following a Tornado Disaster

SGER：龙卷风灾难后的脆弱性信念和行动

• 批准号: 0634901
• 负责人: Jerry Suls
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-01 至 2008-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0634901&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SGER; Vulnerability; Beliefs; Actions; Following

AbstractOn April 13, 2006, at least five F-2 tornadoes with wind speeds of 150 mph left a path of destruction 4 miles long and 1/3rd of a mile wide in downtown Iowa City the home of the University of Iowa. The storms inflicted serious injuries and extensive damage to several businesses, over 1,000 homes and apartments, and hundreds of automobiles. Many college students and permanent residents were forced to leave their homes because of storm damage. It is estimated that the storms resulted in at least $10 million in damages to public buildings and tens of millions more to private property. This natural disaster provides a unique, time-limited opportunity to examine important questions about perceptions of vulnerability. When people encounter a natural disaster that inflicts extensive injury and damage on their community, what effect does the experience have on their beliefs about vulnerability and preparedness for future disasters? Prior research with populations that have not experienced natural disaster or other kinds of major negative life events indicates that most people tend to believe they are less vulnerable (i.e., unrealistically optimistic) than their peers to future disasters. Less is known, however, about whether this belief changes when a significant negative event actually occurs. The proposed research will determine whether people return to unrealistic optimism and how this relates to future efforts aimed at emergency preparedness. Building on preliminary research with 220 participants contacted within 3-weeks after the tornadoes struck, this project will survey both community residents and college students who reside in Iowa City and were present at the time of the tornados to identify the trajectory of beliefs following a disaster and to advance knowledge about motivational and cognitive processes contributing to unrealistic optimism. Questionnaires/Interviews will be administered at 6- and 10-months post-disaster that contain the same items about beliefs, absolute risk, and objective likelihood. There also will be items about any experience with weather-related disasters or other major negative events since the April tornadoes. ANOVA, t-tests, correlations, and chi-square will be used to examine differences as afunction of subject groupings. The tests of changes over time will be assessed with growth curve analysis. ANOVA (or ANCOVA with demographics) will be used to assess differences across cross-sectional samples. Multiple regression will be used to examine the role of potential moderators and mediators of beliefs and preventive behaviors. Because social psychologists conceptualize the illusion of non-vulnerability as one of the fundamental ways that people cope with uncertainty and anxiety about the future, the answers to these questions, in the context of natural disaster, are important and potentially can extend understanding about coping with disasters that affect entire communities. Findings from this research will address theoretical and practical questions about whether the degree of personal exposure and consequences of a disaster influence beliefs of non-vulnerability and emergency preparedness behaviors.

2006年4月13日，至少5场风速为每小时150英里的F-2龙卷风在爱荷华市中心留下了4英里长、1/3英里宽的破坏路径，爱荷华州大学的所在地。风暴造成几家企业严重受伤和广泛破坏，1000多所房屋和公寓，以及数百辆汽车。由于暴风雨的破坏，许多大学生和永久居民被迫离开家园。据估计，风暴对公共建筑造成了至少1000万美元的损失，对私人财产造成了数千万美元的损失。这场自然灾害提供了一个独特的、有时间限制的机会来审查有关脆弱性认知的重要问题。当人们遇到对他们的社区造成广泛伤害和破坏的自然灾害时，这种经历对他们关于脆弱性和应对未来灾难的准备的信念有什么影响？之前对没有经历过自然灾害或其他类型的重大负面生活事件的人群进行的研究表明，大多数人倾向于认为他们比同龄人更不容易受到未来灾难的影响(即，不切实际的乐观)。然而，当重大负面事件实际发生时，这种信念是否会改变，我们知之甚少。这项拟议的研究将确定人们是否会回归不切实际的乐观情绪，以及这与未来旨在应对紧急情况的努力有何关系。在龙卷风来袭后3周内联系到的220名参与者的初步研究基础上，该项目将调查居住在爱荷华市的社区居民和龙卷风发生时在场的大学生，以确定灾难发生后信念的轨迹，并促进对激励和认知过程的了解，这些过程有助于产生不切实际的乐观情绪。问卷/访谈将在灾后6个月和10个月进行，其中包含关于信念、绝对风险和客观可能性的相同项目。还将有关于自4月龙卷风以来与天气有关的灾害或其他重大负面事件的任何经历的项目。将使用方差、t检验、相关性和卡方检验来检验不同受试者分组的差异。对随时间变化的测试将通过增长曲线分析进行评估。将使用方差分析(或人口统计学的ANCOVA)来评估横断面样本之间的差异。多元回归将被用来检验信念和预防行为的潜在调节者和中介者的作用。由于社会心理学家将非脆弱性的错觉概念化为人们应对未来不确定性和焦虑的基本方式之一，在自然灾害的背景下，这些问题的答案非常重要，并有可能扩大对应对影响整个社区的灾难的理解。这项研究的结果将解决关于个人暴露的程度和灾难的后果是否会影响非脆弱性和应急准备行为的信念的理论和实践问题。