SGER: Vulnerability Beliefs and Actions Following a Tornado Disaster

摘要2006年4月1/3日，至少有5个风速为150英里/小时的F-2级龙卷风在爱荷华州市中心（爱荷华州大学所在地）留下了一条4英里长、1/3英里宽的破坏路径。风暴造成多人严重受伤，并对多家企业、1,000多套房屋和公寓以及数百辆汽车造成大面积破坏。许多大学生和永久居民因风暴破坏而被迫离开家园。据估计，风暴给公共建筑造成至少1 000万美元的损失，给私人财产造成数千万美元的损失。这次自然灾害提供了一个独特的、有时间限制的机会来审查关于脆弱性看法的重要问题。 当人们遇到一场自然灾害，给他们的社区造成广泛的伤害和破坏时，这种经历对他们关于脆弱性和对未来灾害的准备的信念有什么影响？先前对没有经历过自然灾害或其他类型的重大负面生活事件的人群的研究表明，大多数人倾向于相信他们不那么脆弱（即，不切实际的乐观）比他们的同龄人对未来的灾难。然而，当一个重大的负面事件真正发生时，这种信念是否会改变，我们所知甚少。这项拟议中的研究将确定人们是否会恢复不切实际的乐观情绪，以及这与未来应急准备工作的关系。 在初步研究的基础上，在龙卷风袭击后3周内联系了220名参与者，该项目将调查居住在爱荷华州市的社区居民和大学生，并在龙卷风发生时在场，以确定灾难发生后信念的轨迹，并提高对促成不切实际乐观情绪的动机和认知过程的认识。将在灾后6个月和10个月进行问卷/访谈，其中包含关于信念、绝对风险和客观可能性的相同项目。此外，还将有关于自4月龙卷风以来与天气有关的灾害或其他重大负面事件的任何经验的项目。将使用ANOVA、t检验、相关性和卡方检验作为受试者分组的函数来检查差异。将采用生长曲线分析评估随时间变化的试验。将使用ANOVA（或ANCOVA与人口统计学）评估横截面样本之间的差异。多元回归将被用来检查潜在的调解人和调解人的信念和预防行为的作用。 由于社会心理学家将非脆弱性错觉概念化为人们科普未来不确定性和焦虑的基本方式之一，因此在自然灾害的背景下，这些问题的答案非常重要，并且可能会扩展对影响整个社区的灾害的理解。 从这项研究的结果将解决理论和实践问题的程度，个人暴露和后果的灾难影响信念的非脆弱性和应急准备行为。

AbstractOn April 13, 2006, at least five F-2 tornadoes with wind speeds of 150 mph left a path of destruction 4 miles long and 1/3rd of a mile wide in downtown Iowa City the home of the University of Iowa. The storms inflicted serious injuries and extensive damage to several businesses, over 1,000 homes and apartments, and hundreds of automobiles. Many college students and permanent residents were forced to leave their homes because of storm damage. It is estimated that the storms resulted in at least $10 million in damages to public buildings and tens of millions more to private property. This natural disaster provides a unique, time-limited opportunity to examine important questions about perceptions of vulnerability. When people encounter a natural disaster that inflicts extensive injury and damage on their community, what effect does the experience have on their beliefs about vulnerability and preparedness for future disasters? Prior research with populations that have not experienced natural disaster or other kinds of major negative life events indicates that most people tend to believe they are less vulnerable (i.e., unrealistically optimistic) than their peers to future disasters. Less is known, however, about whether this belief changes when a significant negative event actually occurs. The proposed research will determine whether people return to unrealistic optimism and how this relates to future efforts aimed at emergency preparedness. Building on preliminary research with 220 participants contacted within 3-weeks after the tornadoes struck, this project will survey both community residents and college students who reside in Iowa City and were present at the time of the tornados to identify the trajectory of beliefs following a disaster and to advance knowledge about motivational and cognitive processes contributing to unrealistic optimism. Questionnaires/Interviews will be administered at 6- and 10-months post-disaster that contain the same items about beliefs, absolute risk, and objective likelihood. There also will be items about any experience with weather-related disasters or other major negative events since the April tornadoes. ANOVA, t-tests, correlations, and chi-square will be used to examine differences as afunction of subject groupings. The tests of changes over time will be assessed with growth curve analysis. ANOVA (or ANCOVA with demographics) will be used to assess differences across cross-sectional samples. Multiple regression will be used to examine the role of potential moderators and mediators of beliefs and preventive behaviors. Because social psychologists conceptualize the illusion of non-vulnerability as one of the fundamental ways that people cope with uncertainty and anxiety about the future, the answers to these questions, in the context of natural disaster, are important and potentially can extend understanding about coping with disasters that affect entire communities. Findings from this research will address theoretical and practical questions about whether the degree of personal exposure and consequences of a disaster influence beliefs of non-vulnerability and emergency preparedness behaviors.