Financing Development: The Role of Information Costs

融资发展：信息成本的作用

• 批准号: 0647766
• 负责人: Jeremy Greenwood
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Pennsylvania
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-03-15 至 2010-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0647766&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Financing; Development; Role; Information; Costs

Why are some countries richer or poorer than other ones? The research funded in this award examines the contribution that financial markets make to economic development. Economists have long been interested in the answer to the question: Why should financial markets matter? The hypothesis advanced is that financial markets promote economic development by channeling investment funds to the places in an economy that will yield the highest returns. This will spur economic growth, and hence economic development. To address this question an economic model of financial intermediation will be developed. The model will emphasize the role that financial intermediaries play in producing information about investment opportunities. There are two types of information production: ex ante and ex post. Intermediaries play a crucial role in discovering important new investment opportunities. This is an example of ex ante information production. They also play a crucial role in ensuring that borrowers use investment funds in a judicious and honest manner. They may do this by auditing projects. This is an example of ex post information production. Information production is a costly activity, and some countries do it more efficiently than others. Countries have vast differences in the sophistication of their financial markets. Investors may be reluctant to invest in poorer countries because of fears that their funds will not be used appropriately due to a lack of investor protections, such as the ability to monitor projects adequately.Countries that have efficient financial markets should see more investment relative to countries that don't. The efficiency of financial markets will therefore be reflected in a country's capital-to-output ratio. This ratio speaks to how much of a country's output is produced by capital versus other means of production, such as labor. Intriguingly, rich countries have higher capital-output ratios than do poor ones. Additionally, efficient financial markets will have low interest-rate spreads between what firms pay on loans and savers earn on their savings. This spread reflects the costs of producing information, as well as other costs of financial intermediation. Again, interestingly, poor countries have larger interest-rate spreads than do rich countries.There are tremendous differentials in countries' income levels. For example, per capita income in the U.S. is 11 times higher than per capita income in India. Exactly how much of this large differential in per capita income is due to poor financial markets in India, and how much is due to other factors, say, import restrictions, and lack of anti-trust regulations? A goal of the analysis will be to provide an explicit answer to this question. This will be done by simulating on a computer the economic model developed for a sample of countries in the world. This simulation will be undertaken in a manner such that the economic model developed matches the distribution of output, capital-output ratios, and interest-rate spreads observed in the world economy. It will then be possible to uncover how of much of the differences in countries' incomes are due to financial markets. The answer to this question will have important policy implications. If a lack of a financial development is a significant hindrance to economic development, then policies that promote more effective financial intermediation may have a high degree of efficacy in improving the lot of poor countries. Such a finding would have broad impact.

为什么有些国家比其他国家富裕或贫穷？该奖项资助的研究考察了金融市场对经济发展的贡献。长期以来，经济学家一直对这个问题的答案很感兴趣：金融市场为什么重要？他们提出的假设是，金融市场通过引导投资资金流向一个经济体中能够产生最高回报的地方，来促进经济发展。这将刺激经济增长，从而促进经济发展。为了解决这个问题，将开发一个金融中介的经济模型。该模型将强调金融中介机构在提供有关投资机会的信息方面所起的作用。有两种类型的信息生产：事前和事后。中介机构在发现重要的新投资机会方面发挥着至关重要的作用。这是事前信息生产的一个例子。他们还在确保借款人以明智和诚实的方式使用投资资金方面发挥关键作用。他们可以通过审计项目来做到这一点。这是事后资料制作的一个例子。信息生产是一项昂贵的活动，有些国家比其他国家做得更有效率。各国在金融市场的复杂程度上存在巨大差异。投资者可能不愿意在较贫穷的国家投资，因为他们担心，由于缺乏投资者保护，比如缺乏充分监督项目的能力，他们的资金不会得到适当的使用。拥有高效金融市场的国家应该比那些没有高效金融市场的国家看到更多的投资。因此，金融市场的效率将反映在一国的资本产出比上。这个比率说明了一个国家的产出有多少是由资本与其他生产手段（如劳动力）生产的。有趣的是，富国的资本产出比率高于穷国。此外，有效的金融市场在公司支付的贷款和储户从存款中赚取的收益之间的利差会很低。这种价差反映了生产信息的成本，以及金融中介的其他成本。有趣的是，穷国的利差比富国大。各国的收入水平存在巨大差异。例如，美国的人均收入是印度的11倍。人均收入的巨大差异究竟有多少是由于印度糟糕的金融市场，又有多少是由于其他因素，比如进口限制和缺乏反垄断法规？分析的一个目标是为这个问题提供一个明确的答案。这将通过在计算机上模拟为世界上一些国家样本开发的经济模型来完成。这种模拟将以这样一种方式进行，即所开发的经济模型与产出分布、资本产出比率和在世界经济中观察到的利率息差相匹配。到那时，就有可能发现各国收入差异在多大程度上是由金融市场造成的。这个问题的答案将具有重要的政策意义。如果缺乏金融发展是经济发展的重大障碍，那么促进更有效的金融中介的政策可能在改善贫穷国家的命运方面具有高度的功效。这样的发现将产生广泛的影响。