CNH: Collaborative Research: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban Growth

该项目的目标是将城市增长模型（SLEUTH）与一个完全耦合的、基于物理的三维水文模型（PARFLOW-CLM）联系起来，以巴尔的摩大都市区为例，评估城市增长对水资源可用性和供水限制的影响。城市增长模型将包括对SLEUTH模型的严格和充分验证的实施，以及城市适宜性和人口数据的空间统计模型。除了提供一个整合景观特征和社会经济变量的平台外，该模型还将提供机会来测试和量化这些变量在吸引或抵制开发方面的影响。由于该模型将更好地反映发展或多或少可能发生的地方，因此该模型的性能将得到改善。该项目的水文部分的实施将包括对一个高度城市化的流域进行深入的实地研究，该流域是巴尔的摩生态系统研究LTER研究地点的主要研究流域。将基于物理的区域水文模型与城市增长模型相结合，将能够评估增长预测（以及影响增长的社会经济变量）与地表水和地下水资源之间的耦合反馈。河流基流和地下水可用性的变化可能反过来影响郊区开发许可的监管决定。这个项目将把小规模的、基于过程的研究与更大规模的区域对水循环如何运作的理解联系起来。该项目还将推进城市土地覆盖建模的几个长期目标。最重要的是将有机会在空间明确的背景下发展城市化与水文系统之间的联系。由于增长模式所引起的压力，水资源管理对服务于公共利益的重要性在全球日益成为一个重要的话题，但目前可用于支持决策的工具和数据是不足的。这项研究将有助于缩小这一差距。切萨皮克湾项目也对这项工作感兴趣，因为它的工作是解决临界阈值和可持续性问题。将与州和地方机构人员进行互动，以便将他们的问题和政策关切纳入建模情景，并讨论本项目研究结果的影响。

The objective of this project is to link an urban growth model (SLEUTH) with a fully-coupled, physically-based three-dimensional hydrologic model (PARFLOW-CLM) to evaluate the effects of growth on water availability and limits to water supply using the Baltimore metropolitan region as a case study. The urban growth modeling will consist of a rigorous and fully validated implementation of the SLEUTH model coupled with a spatial statistical model of urban suitability and demographic data. In addition to providing a platform where both landscape characteristics and socio-economic variables can be integrated, this model will provide the opportunity to test and quantify the influence of each of these variables in either attracting or resisting development. Because the model will have a better representation of the landscape in terms of where development is more or less likely to occur, the model''s performance will be improved. Implementation of the hydrologic component of the project will include intensive field studies on a single highly urbanized watershed, which is the primary study watershed of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER research site. Combining a physically-based regional hydrologic model with an urban growth model will allow an assessment of the coupled feedbacks between growth projections (and the socio-economic variables that affect growth) and surface and subsurface water resources. Changes in stream baseflow and groundwater availability may in turn influence regulatory decisions on development permits in exurban areas.This project will link smaller-scale, process-based studies to a larger scale regional understanding of how the water cycle operates. This project will also advance several long-term goals for urban land cover modeling. Most significantly will be an opportunity to develop the links between urbanization and hydrologic systems in a spatially explicit context. The importance of water resource management to serve the public interest is a topic of growing importance globally because of stresses induced by patterns of growth, but the tools and data currently available to support decision-making are inadequate. This research will help to close that gap. This effort is also of interest to the Chesapeake Bay program, in its work to address questions about critical thresholds and sustainability.Interaction with state and local agency personnel will be carried out in order to incorporate their questions and policy concerns into modeling scenarios and to discuss the implications of the findings from this project.