SBIR Phase I: Dynamic Risk-Based Planning and Scheduling

这个小企业创新研究（SBIR）第一阶段的研究项目将确定新的软件工具，利用创新的原则，提供供应链管理人员更有效的规划和执行工具比目前可用的可行性。这些新的工具，从这项研究将提供一个全面的方法，可以接口到现有的ERP/SCM系统（仅数据），然后，利用新开发的随机模型的供应链，提供了一个供应链计划与少量的关键业务措施和控制。此外，这些新模型解决了在现有SCM产品中一直存在的关键错误。这个新工具，动态基于风险的规划和调度（DRPS），预计将简化可以在规划级别做出的选择，例如在不同的日子增加或减少容量，或推迟到期日）。因此，这些可以被枚举，生成鲁棒和最优的解决方案。如果成功，该方法将解决研究人员40多年来一直无法解决的最佳调度问题。DRSP提供了一个产品流仪表板，使公司计划人员能够真实的实时查看关键变量，并提供有用和强大的控制。这项创新有可能通过在计划和执行之间提供有意义的直接联系来彻底改变行业。此外，它还提供了一种方法，可以使用一些关键指标（总库存，错过发货的概率）来预测未来的性能，以及使用一些关键控制（增加容量，提前工作，删除容量）。这样的系统将具有几个明显的优点，因为它：1）它是动态的，因为它对需求和供应的随机波动进行自我校正，并且当发生需要注意的重大变化时发出信号; 2）比今天使用的模型更准确，对于相同的服务需要更少的库存; 3）系统明确地考虑了供应链的风险和随机性; 4）提供直观的计划，而不会给计划者带来不必要的细节负担;以及5）扩展可以从拉式生产中受益的制造环境的范围。

This Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase I research project will determine the feasibility of new software tools that utilize innovative principles to provide supply chain managers with more effective planning and execution tools than are currently available. These new tools emanating form this research will offer a comprehensive methodology that can interface to an existing ERP/SCM system (for data only) and then, utilizing newly developed stochastic models of the supply chain, provide a supply chain planner with a small number of key operational measures and controls. Additionally, these new models address critical mistakes that have been perpetuated in existing SCM offerings. This new tool, Dynamic Risk-based Planning and Scheduling (DRPS) anticipates to simplify the choices that can made at the planning level such as adding or reducing capacity on various days, or pushing out due dates). Consequently, these can be enumerated generating a solution that is both robust and optimal. If successful, the proposed approach will have solved the optimal scheduling problem that has eluded researchers for more than 40 years. The DRSP provides a Product Flow Dashboard that enables company planners to see critical variables in real time as well as provide useful and robust controls. This innovation has the potential to revolutionize the industry by providing a meaningful direct link between planning and execution. Moreover, it provides a means to use a few key measures (total inventory, probability of missed shipments) to predict future performance and as well as using a few key controls (add capacity, work ahead, remove capacity). Such a system would have several distinct advantages in that it: 1) it is dynamic in that it is self correcting to random fluctuations in both demand and supply and signals when a significant change occurs that requires attention; 2) Is more accurate than models used today requiring less inventory for the same service; 3) The system explicitly considers risk and the stochastic nature of the supply chain; 4) Provides planning that is intuitive without burdening the planner with unnecessary details; and 5) Extends the range of manufacturing environments that can benefit from pull production.