Collaborative Research: Leading Indicators of Regime Shift - an Ecosystem Experiment

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Many changes in nature are slow and gradual, but sometimes extensive changes happen fast. Droughts, losses of production from rangelands, collapse of fisheries, toxic algae blooms, and outbreaks of disease or invasive species can occur rapidly, with significant impacts on living resources and large costs to society. Such big changes are difficult to forecast. Recent theoretical advances suggest that certain indicators can help foresee and manage big changes in resources before they occur. Like leading economic indicators, these leading ecological indicators can be observed before a big shift. So far these theories have not been tested in the field. This project will test potential indicators by experimentally inducing massive changes in the food chain of a lake, while monitoring the lake before, during and after the changes using modern sensor and signal processing technology. The research will evaluate the sensitivity of the indicators and whether they can be used to detect a large change in advance.The project will assess leading indicators that could potentially be used to manage a wide range of living resources, while at the same time testing new theory about rapid extensive changes in nature. We will present a workshop and field trip on rapid environmental change for journalists at the Society of Environmental Journalists meeting in Madison in fall 2009. The project will train graduate and undergraduate students and contribute teaching materials for courses at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies, St. Norbert College, and University of Wisconsin-Madison.