Collaborative Research: Leading Indicators of Regime Shift - an Ecosystem Experiment

合作研究：政权转变的先行指标——生态系统实验

• 批准号: 0715042
• 负责人: Stephen Carpenter
• 金额: $ 55.59万
• 依托单位: University of Wisconsin-Madison
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0715042&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Leading; Indicators; Regime

Many changes in nature are slow and gradual, but sometimes extensive changes happen fast. Droughts, losses of production from rangelands, collapse of fisheries, toxic algae blooms, and outbreaks of disease or invasive species can occur rapidly, with significant impacts on living resources and large costs to society. Such big changes are difficult to forecast. Recent theoretical advances suggest that certain indicators can help foresee and manage big changes in resources before they occur. Like leading economic indicators, these leading ecological indicators can be observed before a big shift. So far these theories have not been tested in the field. This project will test potential indicators by experimentally inducing massive changes in the food chain of a lake, while monitoring the lake before, during and after the changes using modern sensor and signal processing technology. The research will evaluate the sensitivity of the indicators and whether they can be used to detect a large change in advance.The project will assess leading indicators that could potentially be used to manage a wide range of living resources, while at the same time testing new theory about rapid extensive changes in nature. We will present a workshop and field trip on rapid environmental change for journalists at the Society of Environmental Journalists meeting in Madison in fall 2009. The project will train graduate and undergraduate students and contribute teaching materials for courses at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies, St. Norbert College, and University of Wisconsin-Madison.

自然界的许多变化是缓慢而逐渐的，但有时发生了广泛的变化。干旱，牧场的生产损失，渔业崩溃，有毒的藻类开花以及疾病或入侵物种的爆发可能会迅速发生，对生活资源以及对社会的巨大成本产生重大影响。这样的大变化很难预测。最近的理论进步表明，某些指标可以在资源发生之前帮助预见并管理重大资源变化。像领先的经济指标一样，这些领先的生态指标可以在发生重大转变之前观察到。到目前为止，这些理论尚未在现场进行测试。该项目将通过实验诱导湖泊食物链的大规模变化来测试潜在指标，同时使用现代传感器和信号处理技术进行更改之前，期间和之后的湖泊。该研究将评估指标的敏感性以及是否可以用于检测预先检测大型变化。该项目将评估可能用于管理广泛的生活资源的主要指标，同时测试有关自然界快速广泛变化的新理论。我们将在2009年在麦迪逊举行的环境记者协会会议上为记者举办一项关于快速环境变化的研讨会和实地考察。该项目将在毕业生和本科生培训研究生和本科生，并在生态系统研究所，圣诺伯特学院，圣诺伯特学院，以及威斯康星大学 - 马迪森大学为课程贡献教学材料。