Biocomplexity: Divergent Dynamics: Complex Interactions of Riparian Land, People and Lakes

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Abstract00-83545CarpenterBiocomplexity: Divergent dynamics: Complex interactions of riparian land, people and lakesSurprises -large, unexpected changes from apparently small causes -are common in systems of people and nature. Are these surprises a consequence of the complexity or nonlinearity of natural-social systems? Or can they be explained by simpler processes? This research project addresses this question for systems composed of lakes, their riparian vegetation and land use, and social and economic organizations of lake users. The investigators will study the self-organization of lake users and associated characteristics of shoreline and lake ecosystems. The project will determine whether thresholds in riparian organization set the stage for an important class of surprises: collapses of economically important game fish stocks. The researchers will also test the possibility that nonlinear dynamics can be used to design manipulations that remove invading crayfish from a lake. If successful, this experiment will catalyze a self-sustaining removal of an invasive species - a path-breaking ecological restoration.