Wealth Inequality and the Great Shocks of the Twentieth Century; Evidence from France 1912-1946

财富不平等和二十世纪的巨大冲击；

• 批准号: 0715188
• 负责人: Jean-Laurent Rosenthal
• 金额: $ 11.82万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-01 至 2008-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0715188&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Wealth; Inequality; Great; Shocks; Twentieth

Until World War I wealth inequality in most industrialized economies washigh. Then, in the next half century, it collapsed. In Paris, for instance, the share ofwealth owned by the top 1% fell by half (from 70% to 35%). Although there has beensignificant variation in wealth concentration in developed economies since the end ofWorld War II, in a historical perspective we have been living in a world of diminishedinequality. In collaboration with Thomas Piketty and Gilles Postel-Vinay, I proposeto investigate the collapse of wealth inequality by examining estate tax records fromParis in the period from 1912 to 1946. To do so the PI plans to collect detailed informationof the composition of estates for individuals who died in Paris during the years 1912,1922, 1927, 1932, 1937 and 1946. These years will provide access to one cross sectionbefore and one after each of the great shocks this era such as WWI, the Great Depression,and WWII).Intellectual merit of the proposed activity:Although there has been increasing recognition of the importance of thechanges in inequality that occurred between 1914 and 1950, relatively little is knownabout how the process unfolded. These data will complement data sets we havealready collected from 1807 to 1902 and will permit the compilation of homogeneous serieson wealth concentration in Paris and France from 1807 to 1946 that complementpublished series that run from 1902 to 1984. The data offer detailed information onthe identity of the decedents and on the nature of the wealth they left behind. This will permit a better understanding of why the very rich failed to maintain their relativeposition, and why the middle class started to accumulate assets at a much faster rateafter rather than before WWI.Broader impacts resulting from the proposed activity:Understanding the decline in inequality that occurred during the first half ofthe twentieth century is important in its own right. More recently however, a numberof economists have become interested in the consequences of the great shocks of thefirst half of the twentieth century on institutions. For some, these set back thedevelopment of private financial markets in those countries where the shocks wereworst. Yet, to understand the political economy of institutional change, it is necessary toknow exactly what kinds of people were affected by the shocks and how that mayhave changed their preferences for one set or another of institutions. On anotherlevel, we suspect that older cohorts had a much more difficult time overcoming theadverse consequences of the shocks than did younger ones. Beyond the lostgenerations on the battlefield, WWI and WWII may also have destroyed a generationof savers. As such, studying the first half of the twentieth century may provide someimportant clues at to the persistent effects of very large shocks and thus be ofrelevance to present day concerns. Indeed the impact on developing economies in Eastern Europe,Latin America, Africa and elsewhere of very large shocks thathave had important effects on wealth accumulation can only be understood by turning to history.

在第一次世界大战之前，大多数工业化经济体的财富不平等程度都很高。然后，在接下来的半个世纪里，它崩溃了。例如，在巴黎，最富有的1%的人拥有的财富份额下降了一半(从70%降至35%)。尽管自第二次世界大战结束以来，发达经济体的财富集中度有了很大的变化，但从历史的角度来看，我们一直生活在一个平等程度越来越低的世界。与Thomas Piketty和Gilles Postel-Vinay合作，我提议通过研究1912年至1946年期间巴黎的遗产税记录来调查财富不平等的崩溃。为此，PI计划收集1912、1922、1927、1932、1937和1946年间在巴黎去世的个人的遗产构成的详细信息。这些年将提供一个横截面，在这个时代的每一次大冲击之前和之后(如第一次世界大战、大萧条和第二次世界大战)。拟议活动的智力价值：尽管人们越来越多地认识到1914年至1950年之间发生的不平等变化的重要性，但人们对这一过程是如何展开的知之甚少。这些数据将补充我们从1807年至1902年收集的数据集，并将使我们能够编制关于巴黎和法国从1807年至1946年财富集中度的同质系列，以补充从1902年至1984年发布的系列。这些数据提供了关于死者身份和他们留下的财富性质的详细信息。这将有助于更好地理解为什么非常富有的人未能保持他们的相对地位，以及为什么中产阶级在第一次世界大战之后而不是第一次世界大战之前开始以更快的速度积累资产。拟议活动造成的广泛影响：理解20世纪上半叶发生的不平等程度的下降本身就很重要。然而，最近，一些经济学家开始对20世纪上半叶对制度的巨大冲击的后果感兴趣。对一些人来说，这些阻碍了那些受冲击最严重的国家的私人金融市场的发展。然而，要理解制度变革的政治经济学，有必要准确地了解哪些人受到了冲击，以及这可能如何改变了他们对一套或另一套制度的偏好。在另一个层面上，我们怀疑年龄较大的人群比年轻人群更难克服冲击的不利后果。除了战场上迷失的几代人之外，第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战可能还摧毁了一代储蓄者。因此，研究二十世纪上半叶可能会提供一些关于极大冲击的持续影响的重要线索，从而与当今的关切有关。事实上，对财富积累产生重大影响的巨大冲击对东欧、拉丁美洲、非洲和其他地方的发展中经济体的影响，只有通过回顾历史才能理解。