Wealth Inequality and the Great Shocks of the Twentieth Century; Evidence from France 1912-1946

直到第一次世界大战，大多数工业化经济体的财富不平等程度都很高。然后，在接下来的半个世纪，它崩溃了。例如，在巴黎，最富有的1%所拥有的财富份额下降了一半（从70%下降到35%）。尽管自二战结束以来，发达经济体的财富集中度发生了重大变化，但从历史的角度来看，我们一直生活在一个不平等减少的世界。在与托马斯皮凯蒂和吉勒Postel-Vinay合作，我建议调查的财富不平等的崩溃，通过检查遗产税记录从巴黎在1912年至1946年期间。为此，PI计划收集1912年、1922年、1927年、1932年、1937年和1946年期间在巴黎去世的个人的遗产组成的详细信息。这些年将提供一个横截面的访问之前和之后的每一个大冲击，这个时代，如第一次世界大战，大萧条和第二次世界大战）。拟议的活动的智力价值：虽然已经越来越多的认识到的重要性，在不平等的变化发生在1914年和1950年之间，相对较少的是知道如何展开的过程。这些数据将补充我们已经收集的1807年至1902年的数据集，并将允许汇编1807年至1946年巴黎和法国财富集中的同质序列，补充1902年至1984年的已发表序列。这些数据提供了关于死者身份和他们留下的财富性质的详细信息。这将有助于我们更好地理解为什么超级富豪未能保持他们的相对地位，以及为什么中产阶级在一战后开始以比一战前快得多的速度积累资产。拟议活动产生的更广泛影响：理解20世纪上半叶不平等的下降本身就很重要。然而最近，一些经济学家开始对世纪上半叶的巨大冲击对制度的影响感兴趣。对一些人来说，这阻碍了那些受冲击最严重的国家的私人金融市场的发展。然而，为了理解制度变迁的政治经济学，有必要确切地知道什么样的人受到了冲击的影响，以及冲击如何改变了他们对一套或另一套制度的偏好。在另一个层面上，我们怀疑年龄较大的人群比年轻人更难克服电击的不良后果。除了在战场上失去的一代人，一战和二战也可能摧毁了一代储蓄者。因此，研究20世纪上半叶可能会提供一些重要的线索，在非常大的冲击的持续影响，从而与当今的关注。事实上，对财富积累产生重大影响的巨大冲击对东欧、拉丁美洲、非洲和其他地方的发展中经济体的影响，只有通过回顾历史才能理解。

Until World War I wealth inequality in most industrialized economies washigh. Then, in the next half century, it collapsed. In Paris, for instance, the share ofwealth owned by the top 1% fell by half (from 70% to 35%). Although there has beensignificant variation in wealth concentration in developed economies since the end ofWorld War II, in a historical perspective we have been living in a world of diminishedinequality. In collaboration with Thomas Piketty and Gilles Postel-Vinay, I proposeto investigate the collapse of wealth inequality by examining estate tax records fromParis in the period from 1912 to 1946. To do so the PI plans to collect detailed informationof the composition of estates for individuals who died in Paris during the years 1912,1922, 1927, 1932, 1937 and 1946. These years will provide access to one cross sectionbefore and one after each of the great shocks this era such as WWI, the Great Depression,and WWII).Intellectual merit of the proposed activity:Although there has been increasing recognition of the importance of thechanges in inequality that occurred between 1914 and 1950, relatively little is knownabout how the process unfolded. These data will complement data sets we havealready collected from 1807 to 1902 and will permit the compilation of homogeneous serieson wealth concentration in Paris and France from 1807 to 1946 that complementpublished series that run from 1902 to 1984. The data offer detailed information onthe identity of the decedents and on the nature of the wealth they left behind. This will permit a better understanding of why the very rich failed to maintain their relativeposition, and why the middle class started to accumulate assets at a much faster rateafter rather than before WWI.Broader impacts resulting from the proposed activity:Understanding the decline in inequality that occurred during the first half ofthe twentieth century is important in its own right. More recently however, a numberof economists have become interested in the consequences of the great shocks of thefirst half of the twentieth century on institutions. For some, these set back thedevelopment of private financial markets in those countries where the shocks wereworst. Yet, to understand the political economy of institutional change, it is necessary toknow exactly what kinds of people were affected by the shocks and how that mayhave changed their preferences for one set or another of institutions. On anotherlevel, we suspect that older cohorts had a much more difficult time overcoming theadverse consequences of the shocks than did younger ones. Beyond the lostgenerations on the battlefield, WWI and WWII may also have destroyed a generationof savers. As such, studying the first half of the twentieth century may provide someimportant clues at to the persistent effects of very large shocks and thus be ofrelevance to present day concerns. Indeed the impact on developing economies in Eastern Europe,Latin America, Africa and elsewhere of very large shocks thathave had important effects on wealth accumulation can only be understood by turning to history.