Dynamical Systems in Host-Parasite and Structured Population Models

宿主-寄生虫和结构化群体模型中的动力系统

• 批准号: 0715451
• 负责人: Horst Thieme
• 金额: $ 23.5万
• 依托单位: Arizona State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-15 至 2011-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0715451&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Dynamical; Systems; Host; Parasite; Structured

Emerging and re-emerging diseases have led to a renewed interest in infectious diseases and host-parasite systems, and in their mathematical modeling. The fact that not only humans and their food sources (domestic animals and agronomic plants), but also natural animal and plant populations are afflicted (amphibian decline), has directed attention to the important and fascinating role of parasites in ecosystems. With their rapid turn-over, parasitic populations are ideal objects to study the principles of evolution; in turn, it is important to understand these principles to control infectious diseases effectively. Mathematical models and their analysis are very much needed for a deeper understanding and as a theoretical laboratory to devise control and management strategies.While the health aspects of parasite-host interactions are of immediate concern, their impact on biological diversity, in interaction with population structures, may be as important. The role of fungal and viral pathogens in the decline or even disappearance of amphibians is only one example of concern for the negative role parasites can play in species diversity, another would be parasite-mediated competitive exclusion. The following projects in mathematical modeling and model analysis are the focus of the project: (i) Stability and periodic oscillations in disease models with horizontal and vertical transmission; (ii) Parasites in stage-structured host populations; (iii) Mediated coexistence and extinction in prey-predator-parasite systems; (iv) Size-structured models for in-host prion proliferation.Studying these mathematical host-parasite models will greatly contribute to the understanding of the role of parasites and population structure as well as their interaction in the maintenance of biological diversity. It will enhance our insight in the interplay of the possible multitude of factors which cause species decline and disappearance. These models will help to design environmental management strategies that foster or at least are compatible with species preservation. They can be used as educational tools in graduate and undergraduate instruction and for effective communication with the scientific community, public health officers, and an educated public audience.

新出现和重新出现的疾病导致了对传染病和宿主-寄生虫系统及其数学建模的新兴趣。 事实上，不仅人类及其食物来源（家畜和农艺植物），而且自然动物和植物种群也受到影响（两栖动物减少），这使人们注意到寄生虫在生态系统中的重要和迷人的作用。寄生虫种群更替迅速，是研究进化规律的理想对象，反过来，理解这些规律对有效控制传染病也很重要。 数学模型及其分析是非常需要的，以加深理解，并作为一个理论实验室，以制定控制和管理战略，虽然寄生虫-宿主相互作用的健康方面是直接关注的问题，它们对生物多样性的影响，在与人口结构的相互作用，可能是同样重要的。真菌和病毒病原体在两栖动物减少甚至消失中的作用只是寄生虫在物种多样性中所起的负面作用的一个例子，另一个例子是寄生虫介导的竞争排斥。 数学建模和模型分析方面的下列项目是该项目的重点：㈠具有水平和垂直传播的疾病模型的稳定性和周期振荡; ㈡阶段结构宿主种群中的寄生虫; ㈢捕食者-捕食者-寄生虫系统中的介导共存和灭绝;（iv）宿主朊病毒增殖的大小结构模型。寄生虫模型将大大有助于了解寄生虫和种群结构的作用以及它们在维持生物多样性方面的相互作用。它将增强我们对可能导致物种衰退和消失的众多因素相互作用的洞察力。这些模式将有助于设计环境管理战略，促进或至少是兼容的物种保护。 它们可以作为研究生和本科生教学的教育工具，并与科学界，公共卫生官员和受过教育的公众进行有效的沟通。