Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Microdynamics of Participation in Civil War

博士论文研究：参与内战的微观动力学

• 批准号: 0717934
• 负责人: Michael Gilligan
• 金额: $ 1.2万
• 依托单位: New York University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2008-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0717934&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Microdynamics; Participation

This research focuses on the motivations for popular participation in civil war. Considerable research has already explored what sorts of countries tend to engage in civil war, but little has been done to investigate why individual citizens, formerly peaceful, decide to take up arms. This work seeks to determine 1) what needs, desires, and events are most likely to drive people to the battlefront and 2) what sorts of individual characteristics are associated with civil war participation. These questions are best addressed through surveys of civilians and former fighters. Survey research is becoming the technique of choice in studying civil war, given the gaps in our current understanding of conflict dynamics. Prior to the introduction of survey research into the field, political science relied heavily on cross-national studies and qualitative accounts. Cross-national quantitative studies had suggested an abundance of primary commodity exportables and significant ethnic heterogeneity are strongly associated with war outbreaks, but these findings have failed to withstand scrutiny. Qualitative studies have offered intuition and several hypotheses, but most have yet to be rigorously tested on a large scale. Surveys allow for the statistical test of hypotheses about motivations for participation using data from a broad sample of average citizens who found themselves in an extraordinary situation. A survey will be conducted of nearly 2000 former fighters and civilians in Burundi. This data, combined with narratives from former fighters, will help explain participation Burundi''s revolution. In addition, a sister survey will be conducted in Liberia, where the dynamics, objectives and outcome of the war were very different. Liberia serves as a contrasting case in many important ways: participation in Liberia was often coerced while in Burundi it was largely voluntary; Liberia''s natural resources are abundant while Burundi''s are scarce; and Liberia has sixteen ethnic groups living within its borders, while Burundi, with twice the population, has only three. By varying the social environments in which people make their participation decisions, which motivations are most important will be tested across different cultures and conflicts. This research agenda can make an important contribution to policymaking as well as academia. While civil wars are initiated by individuals with the resources, power and motivation to begin an insurgency, they are perpetuated through the support and participation of normal citizens. Understanding under what conditions individuals fight can help interested parties predict not just which countries might break into conflict, but which citizens will participate in it. This knowledge can make efforts at prevention targeted towards specific classes of people and social conditions, thus making conflict prevention more effective.

这项研究的重点是民众参与内战的动机。 大量的研究已经探索了什么样的国家倾向于参与内战，但很少有人调查为什么个别公民，以前和平，决定拿起武器。 这项工作旨在确定：1）什么样的需求，欲望和事件最有可能驱使人们走向前线; 2）什么样的个人特征与内战的参与有关。 这些问题最好通过对平民和前战斗人员的调查来解决。 鉴于我们目前对冲突动态的理解存在差距，调查研究正在成为研究内战的首选技术。 在将调查研究引入该领域之前，政治学在很大程度上依赖于跨国研究和定性分析。 跨国定量研究表明，大量初级商品出口和显著的种族异质性与战争爆发密切相关，但这些研究结果经不起推敲。定性研究提供了直觉和几个假设，但大多数还没有得到严格的大规模测试。 通过调查，可以利用来自发现自己处于特殊情况的普通公民的广泛样本的数据，对关于参与动机的假设进行统计检验。 将对布隆迪近2 000名前战斗人员和平民进行调查。 这些数据，加上前战斗人员的叙述，将有助于解释参与布隆迪革命的原因。 此外，还将在利比里亚进行一次姐妹调查，那里的战争动态、目标和结果都非常不同。 利比里亚在许多重要方面都是一个对比鲜明的例子：在利比里亚，参与往往是被迫的，而在布隆迪，参与主要是自愿的;利比里亚的自然资源丰富，而布隆迪的资源稀缺;利比里亚有16个民族生活在其境内，而人口是布隆迪两倍的布隆迪只有3个民族。 通过改变人们做出参与决策的社会环境，将在不同的文化和冲突中测试哪些动机是最重要的。 这一研究议程可以为决策和学术界作出重要贡献。 虽然内战是由拥有资源、权力和动机的个人发动的，但他们开始叛乱，通过普通公民的支持和参与，内战得以延续。 了解个人在何种条件下作战，不仅可以帮助有关各方预测哪些国家可能爆发冲突，而且可以预测哪些公民将参与冲突，这一知识可以使预防工作针对特定阶层的人和社会条件，从而使预防冲突更加有效。