Spatial Population Models in Spatiotemporally Structured Environments

空间效应，如生境破碎化和干扰事件的位置和大小，在种群动态中起着关键作用。这在自然种群（如生活在森林冠层下的草本植物）和人类主导的系统（如农业景观中的作物害虫）中都是如此。该项目侧重于空间种群模型的发展，旨在更好地理解空间自相关干扰如何以及为什么影响短距离和远距离分散混合种群的动态。考虑了各种干扰，包括：(1)静态干扰，代表景观中栖息地的异质性；(2)短期干扰，即种群从可能重新定居的地点移出，例如代表农业作物害虫的短期控制；(3)具有特定空间和时间自相关性的景观，即地块不适合重新定居，直到一段时间过去才可以重新定居。该项目的计算方面的主要目标是改进用于这些类型的空间模型的模拟方法，以便更快速/完整地探索参数空间和在蒙特卡罗参数估计技术中使用模拟模型。空间干扰和异质性在任何生态系统中都起着重要作用。该项目开发数学模型和计算工具，用于研究各种类型的干扰。可能的应用包括在林隙形成导致一组地点不适合直到冠层再生的森林中对林下植物物种进行建模，或者在一个地区使用杀虫剂，使这些地点在一段时间内不适合害虫重新定居。该项目将包括与昆虫学家和其他生物学家合作，研究在农业景观中控制害虫的不同策略的效果，例如商业蓝莓田的蛆蝇。还将审议由于土地利用格局变化和全球气候变化等因素而引起的生境分布变化对人口的影响。重要的本科生研究培训将包括在该项目中，包括参加一个主要针对代表性不足的少数群体的夏季研究项目。

Spatial effects, such as habitat fragmentation and the location and size of disturbance events, play a key role in the dynamics of populations. This is true in natural populations (such as herbs living under a forest canopy) as well as human-dominated systems (for example, crop pests in agricultural landscapes). Focusing on the development of spatial population models, the project seeks to better understand how and why spatially autocorrelated disturbances affect the dynamics of populations with mixtures of short- and long-distance dispersal. A variety of disturbances are considered, including (1) static disturbance, representing habitat heterogeneity across a landscape; (2) short-term disturbance whereby populations are removed from sites which may then be recolonized, e.g. representing short-term control of agricultural crop pests, and (3) landscapes with specified spatial and temporal autocorrelation, whereby blocks of sites become unsuitable and cannot be recolonized until some time has elapsed. The primary objectives of the computational side of the project are to improve the simulation methodology used for these types of spatial models, to enable more rapid/complete exploration of the parameter space and the use of simulation models in Monte Carlo parameter estimation techniques.Spatial disturbances and heterogeneities play a fundamental role in any ecological system. This project develops mathematical models and computational tools to be used in the study of various types of disturbances. Possible applications include the modeling of understory plant species in a forest where gap formation renders a group of sites unsuitable until the canopy regenerates, or the application of pesticides over a region which leaves those sites unsuitable for recolonization by pests for some time. The project will include collaboration with entomologists and other biologists to study the effects of different strategies for controlling pests across agricultural landscapes, such as maggot flies in commercial blueberry fields. The effects of changing habitat distributions on populations, due to factors such as changing land-use patterns and global climate change, will also be considered. Significant undergraduate research training will be included in the project, including participation in a summer research program primarily aimed at underrepresented minority groups.