Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Effect of Polls on Political Behavior

主要调查人员：乔恩·克罗斯尼克和尼尔·马尔霍特勒题目：博士论文研究：民意调查对政治行为的影响抽象选举是美国民主的核心特征。它们为公民提供了追究现任者对其表现的责任的能力，以及确保政府代表公众对政策问题的意见的一种手段。新闻媒体在美国的选举中扮演着重要的角色，经常向公民传达有关候选人的信息，帮助选民做出明智、明智的决定。然而，媒体提供的信息有时可能会阻碍人们的决策，阻碍他们做出符合国家最佳利益和最能反映其个人偏好的最佳投票选择的能力。此外，新闻媒体的报道可能会激励人们在选举中投票，参与民主进程，但媒体也可以让公民远离政治，阻碍投票率。这个项目将探索美国新闻媒体如何影响选民，并确定这种影响是建设性的还是有害的。这篇论文的重点是媒体向公民提供的一种特殊类型的信息：记录候选人和公共政策受欢迎程度的民意调查结果。这类民调经常由研究机构进行，并在重大的全国性竞选期间由新闻媒体定期报道。他们不断向公民通报竞选情况，潜在地影响人们对竞争对手的评价。通常，这些民调甚至在政党提名人选出之前就进行了，这让政治精英和公众甚至在竞选活动正式开始之前就对竞争者的潜在可选性有了感觉。事实上，民意调查正日益成为专家们所说的“永久运动”的核心特征。这些民意调查对公民政治态度和行为的潜在影响，从学术角度来看是有趣的，但从规范意义上来说也可能是令人苦恼的。个人可能不会对自己的政治选择进行反省和仔细思考，而是可能会顺应其他人在民意调查中表达的意见。人们这样做可能是因为他们觉得他们可以从他人的集体意见中学习，以便做出明智的决定。或者，人们可能会感到压力，不得不顺从他人的意见，以避免被排斥或感觉被排斥。此外，了解到竞选可能不会势均力敌，可能会使人们不愿投票，或者特别可能会让“失败者”候选人的支持者复员。这些影响可能在人口中的一些成员中特别普遍，例如受教育程度最低和政治意识最低的人。该项目将测试一系列在复杂的理论模型中概述的相关假设，这些假设将通过在互联网上进行的美国成年人口调查中嵌入的实验进行评估。以前的研究已经探索了上面讨论的一些问题，但过去的研究没有像本项目那样将这些想法整合到一个统一的、全面的理论模型中，也没有过去的研究以方法上严格的方式测试过如此广泛的一系列假设。这项拟议的研究将向受访者提出一系列关于2008年参议员希拉里·克林顿和约翰·麦凯恩之间假想的总统竞选的问题。受访者将获得关于竞选势均力敌的不同信息，以便检查这些信息如何影响候选人的选择和参与的决定。这些数据可能会测试公民在制定自己的政治态度和行为意图时，是否会受到媒体对民调结果的报道的影响，要么是因为公民寻求集体智慧，要么是因为他们有顺从的愿望。无论是哪种情况，这些发现都将对选举的学术研究以及人们对自己在民主政体中作为行动者的角色的理解产生重要影响。这个项目的发现为社会提供了几个潜在的好处。最重要的是，美国政府内外的许多人都有兴趣了解民主是如何运作的，以及如何最好地装备民主公民履行他们的责任。了解美国民主是如何运作的，将有助于在其他国家设计和实施民主政府。洞察媒体如何影响美国政治结果将有助于这个社会更好地了解自己，以便在认识到媒体对选民和选举结果的影响的情况下，进行未来的媒体报道规划。该项目还将通过允许博士生在执行该项目时得到美国选举、舆论和政治心理学领域的教员专家的密切指导，来加强学术界的教学、培训和学习。此外，本科生将协助进行研究，从而了解研究过程。调查实验将让来自不同种族和地理背景的受访者参与到政治进程中来，这可能会促使他们更多地了解美国政府。这个项目的发现将有助于深入了解未被充分代表的群体是否特别受到新闻媒体的影响。这些发现还将改进政府、商业和学术界舆论研究界使用的工具和方法，因为这个项目将有助于调查方法学家更好地了解他们工作的结果。

Primary Investigators: Jon Krosnick and Neil MalhotraTitle: Doctoral Dissertation Research: The Effect of Polls on Political Behavior 0720444Abstract Elections are a central feature of American democracy. They provide citizens with the ability to hold incumbents accountable for their performance, as well as a means to ensure that the public's views on policy issues are represented by the government. The news media play an important role in the conduct of elections in the United States, often conveying information to citizens about candidates in ways that can assist the electorate in making intelligent, informed decisions. However, information provided by the media may sometimes handicap people's decision making, hindering their ability to make optimal vote choices that are in the best interest of the country and are most reflective of their personal preferences. Additionally, news media reports may inspire people to vote in elections and participate in the democratic process, but the media can also turn the citizenry off from politics and discourage turnout. This project will explore how the American news media influence voters and ascertain whether that influence is constructive or harmful. The focus of this dissertation is on one particular type of information that the media provide to citizens: the results of polls documenting the popularity of candidates and public policies. Such polls are frequently conducted by research organizations and reported regularly by the news media during major national campaigns. They constantly update citizens about the state of a race, potentially influencing people's evaluations of competing candidates. Often, these polls are conducted even before the parties' nominees are selected, providing both political elites and the public a sense of the potential electability of contenders even before the campaign has officially commenced. Indeed, public opinion polling is becoming an increasingly central feature of what pundits have referred to as "the permanent campaign." The potential effects of these polls on citizens' political attitudes and behaviors are interesting from a scholarly perspective but may also be distressing in a normative sense. Individuals may not engage in introspection and careful thought about their political choices and may instead conform to the opinions expressed by others in polls. People may do so because they feel they can learn from the collective opinion of others in order to make wise decisions. Or people may feel pressure to conform to the opinions of others to avoid being or feeling ostracized. Additionally, learning that a race is likely not to be close may discourage people from voting, or may especially demobilize supporters of the "underdog" candidate. These effects may be particularly prevalent among some members of the population, such as the least educated and the least politically aware. This project will test a series of such related hypotheses outlined in an elaborate theoretical model, which will be evaluated via experiments embedded in surveys of the U.S. adult population conducted over the Internet. Previous research has explored some of the issues discussed above, but no past study has integrated these ideas within a unified, comprehensive theoretical model as this project will, nor has past research tested such a broad array of hypotheses in as methodologically rigorous a fashion. The proposed study will ask respondents a series of questions about a hypothetical 2008 presidential race between Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Respondents will be given varying information about the closeness of the race, allowing examination of how such information affects candidate choice and the decision to participate. The data may test whether citizens are influenced by media reports of poll results when formulating their own political attitudes and behavioral intentions, either because citizens seek collective wisdom or have a desire to conform. In either case, the findings will have important implications for the academic study of elections and also for people's understandings of their roles as actors within the democratic polity. The findings from this project offer several potential benefits to society. Most importantly, many people in the U.S. government and outside of it are interested in understanding how democracies operate and how best to equip democratic citizens to carry out their responsibilities. Understanding how American democracy operates will help in the design and implementation of democratic governments in other nations. And insight into how the media influence American political outcomes will help this society to better understand itself, so that future planning of media coverage can be done cognizant of its impact on voters and election outcomes. This project will also enhance teaching, training, and learning within the scholarly community by allowing a PhD student to be closely mentored by a faculty member expert in the fields of American elections, public opinion, and political psychology while carrying out the project. Also, undergraduates will assist in the conduct of the research and will thereby learn about the research process. The survey experiments will engage respondents who are drawn from diverse ethnic and geographic backgrounds in the political process, potentially motivating them to learn more about American government. And findings from this project will yield insight into whether under-represented groups are especially influenced by the news media. The findings will also improve the instruments and methods used by the public opinion research community in government, business, and academia, because this project will help survey methodologists to better understand the consequences of their work.