Collaborative Research: The Differential Impact of Parasitic Diseases on Agricultural Productivity of Blacks and Whites in the Early Twentieth-Century South

合作研究：寄生虫病对二十世纪初南方黑人和白人农业生产力的不同影响

• 批准号: 0721070
• 负责人: Philip Coelho
• 金额: $ 11.28万
• 依托单位: Ball State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0721070&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Differential; Impact; Parasitic

This project examines the impact of parasitic diseases on the productivity of populations of different ancestral heritages in the early 20th-century American South. The research has historical significance because it quantifies the relationship between endemic parasitic diseases and the economic well-being of two historically important populations, African-Americans (blacks) and European-Americans (whites). The project helps explain the economic development of the American South and address questions concerning the productivity of 19th-century southern slavery. The research focuses on the geographical distinctiveness of diseases and the differential biological susceptibilities of blacks and whites to particular endemic diseases, primarily to parasitic hookworm and malaria. The research gathers archival data from the Rockefeller Archive Center on the prevalence of parasitic diseases in the early 20th-century for all available counties for eleven southern states. The project uses the available disease prevalence rates with various climatic, geographical, etiological factors, and other disease-related data to estimate (impute) disease prevalence rates for those southern counties that lack explicit disease data. The research employs the explicit and imputed disease prevalence rates along with agricultural input and output data for 968 southern counties to estimate differences in county-level economic productivity (agricultural output) between black and white agricultural labor. The econometric estimations of productivity control for other pertinent variables and correct for various statistical concerns.The broader significance of the project is that it provides data for estimating the impact of parasitic diseases in the world today. The role of endemic hookworm and malaria in explaining early 20th-century economic productivity of southern black and white agricultural labor assists in understanding the economic impact of these diseases today. Hookworm currently infects between 20 and 33 percent of the world's population; malaria infects 300 to 500 million people and kills 2 to 3 million per year. The economic impact of these diseases is not known with much precision, but early 20th-century estimates suggest hookworm reduced labor productivity from 20 to 70 percent. Malaria's economic impact is just now being studied. A hypothetical but plausible estimate for the impact of hookworm alone illustrates the possible magnitude of the costs of these diseases. Using the 20 percent hookworm infection rate means that about 1.2 billion people worldwide are infected. If hookworm infects people with a per capita income equivalent of $800 U. S. dollars (people in the world's poorest nations) and reduces annual productivity just 15 percent, the economic losses due to hookworm alone are $144 billion per year. Capitalized at an interest rate of 4 percent, this represents a permanent wealth reduction of $3.6 trillion for the world's poorest peoples. This calculation is imprecise. But it suggests that throughout much of the developing world the control of endemic parasitic diseases may be an effective way to combat poverty. This project's estimation of the lost economic productivity attributable to hookworm and malaria establishes more precise boundaries for estimating the contemporaneous effects of these diseases.

该项目研究了寄生虫病对20世纪初美国南部不同祖先遗产人口生产力的影响。这项研究具有历史意义，因为它量化了地方性寄生虫病与两个历史上重要人群——非裔美国人（黑人）和欧裔美国人（白人）——经济福祉之间的关系。该项目有助于解释美国南部的经济发展，并解决有关19世纪南方奴隶制生产力的问题。研究的重点是疾病的地理独特性以及黑人和白人对特定地方病，主要是寄生钩虫和疟疾的不同生物敏感性。这项研究收集了洛克菲勒档案中心关于20世纪初11个南方州所有可用县寄生虫病流行情况的档案数据。该项目利用现有的疾病患病率以及各种气候、地理、病因因素和其他与疾病有关的数据来估计（估算）缺乏明确疾病数据的南方国家的疾病患病率。本研究采用南方968个县的显性和估算疾病患病率以及农业投入和产出数据来估计黑人和白人农业劳动力在县级经济生产率（农业产出）方面的差异。对其他相关变量的生产率控制的计量经济学估计，并纠正各种统计问题。该项目的更广泛意义在于，它为估计当今世界寄生虫病的影响提供了数据。地方病钩虫和疟疾在解释20世纪早期南方黑人和白人农业劳动力的经济生产力方面的作用有助于理解这些疾病对今天的经济影响。钩虫目前感染了世界上20%到33%的人口；疟疾每年感染3亿至5亿人，造成200万至300万人死亡。这些疾病的经济影响尚不清楚，但20世纪初的估计表明，钩虫使劳动生产率降低了20%至70%。疟疾的经济影响目前正在研究中。仅对钩虫的影响进行一个假设但似乎合理的估计，就说明了这些疾病可能造成的巨大损失。按照20%的钩虫感染率计算，全球约有12亿人受到感染。如果钩虫感染人均收入相当于800美元的人（世界上最贫穷国家的人），并使年生产力降低15%，那么每年仅钩虫造成的经济损失就高达1440亿美元。按4%的利率计算，这意味着世界上最贫困人口的永久财富减少了3.6万亿美元。这种计算并不精确。但是它表明，在大多数发展中国家，控制地方性寄生虫病可能是消除贫困的有效方法。本项目对钩虫和疟疾造成的经济生产力损失的估计，为估计这些疾病的同期影响确立了更精确的界限。