The Microfoundations of Housing Market Dynamics

住房市场动态的微观基础

• 批准号: 0721136
• 负责人: Patrick Bayer
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2010-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0721136&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Microfoundations; Housing; Market; Dynamics

AbstractThe Microfoundations of Housing Price Dynamics (0721136)Patrick Bayer and Christopher TimminsFluctuations in home building play a central role in economic business cycles. Fueled by low interest rates, the upsurge in housing prices in the US between 1997-2006, and the subsequent building boom, is generally considered to have been a driving force in the expansion of the economy over that period. And, worries about a major housing market correction have played a central role in the determination of monetary policy by the Fed in the subsequent period. Yet while researchers have documented many of important macroeconomic aspects of housing market dynamics, little is understood about the behavior of individual home-buyers and sellers at various points in a real estate boom-bust cycle. In particular, a number of questions about the fundamental determinants of the nature and length of local real estate boom-bust cycles remain open. The intellectual merit of the project derives from two novel features of its design, which permit the analysis to deliver new insights concerning housing market dynamics. The first is the construction of a new dataset that uses detailed information on millions of housing transactions over a 15-year period. The second is the development of a tractable model of neighborhood choice that permits the study of individual home-buying and selling decisions in a dynamic context. The empirical applications in the project follow two main lines of inquiry, seeking to improve our understanding of (i) the underlying causes of housing price fluctuations and (ii) the underlying factors driving the dynamics of racial segregation in cities. The principal goal of the first line of research is to provide a clear linkage between the microeconomic primitives of the housing market (i.e., the factors governing individual buying and selling decisions) and the aggregate market dynamics (e.g., the positive persistence of prices, local housing bubbles, etc). Of particular importance is the question of whether individual home buyers and sellers have rational expectations about housing market dynamics at different points in a local real estate cycle. In other words, do individuals become irrationally exuberant during local real estate booms and unduly pessimistic during downturns? The second line of research includes three papers that aim to improve our understanding of the microeconomic forces driving the dynamics of racial segregation. The first two papers develop new empirical tests for racial discrimination in housing transactions and racial tipping, respectively. Each paper uses the detailed nature of the transaction data to devise tests that are subject to far fewer confounding issues than those that have appeared in the literature to date. The third paper in this line of research uses the estimated dynamic model of neighborhood choice to better understand the roles of preferences versus expectations about price and neighborhood dynamics in the evolution and persistence of racial segregation.This project has a number of broader impacts. The new dataset and methodologies developed as part of the project are potentially applicable to the study of a much wider set of dynamic phenomena in housing markets and cities. Moreover, an increased understanding of the nature and causes of housing market fluctuations has direct benefits for the setting of policy at both the federal and local levels.

摘要房屋价格动态的微观基础（0721136）帕特里克·拜耳（Patrick Bayer）和克里斯托弗·蒂姆斯（Christopher Timminsfluctions）在房屋建筑中起着核心作用在经济商业周期中的核心作用。在低利率的推动下，通常认为在1997 - 2006年之间，美国房屋价格的上涨以及随后的建筑繁荣，通常被认为是该时期经济扩张的推动力。 而且，担心主要的住房市场校正在随后的美联储确定货币政策方面发挥了核心作用。 然而，尽管研究人员已经记录了住房市场动态的许多重要宏观经济方面，但在房地产繁荣时期的各个点上，个人房屋购买者和卖方的行为几乎没有理解。 特别是，有关当地房地产繁荣障碍周期性质和长度的基本决定因素的许多问题仍然开放。该项目的智力优点来自其设计的两个新颖特征，这些功能使分析能够提供有关住房市场动态的新见解。 首先是构建一个新数据集，该数据集使用15年内数百万个住房交易的详细信息。第二个是开发可访问的邻里选择模型，该模型允许在动态背景下研究个人购房和销售决策。 该项目中的经验应用遵循了两条主要的询问，试图提高我们对（i）住房价格波动的根本原因，以及（ii）推动城市种族隔离动态的基本因素。第一线研究的主要目标是在住房市场的微观基原始人（即管理个人买卖决策的因素）与总体市场动态（例如，价格的积极持久性，本地住房等等）之间提供明确的联系。 尤其重要的是，个人购房者和卖方是否对当地房地产周期中不同点的住房市场动态有合理的期望。 换句话说，在当地房地产繁荣时期，个人是否会变得不合理地旺盛，在衰退期间过度悲观？第二条研究包括三篇论文，旨在提高我们对推动种族隔离动态的微观经济力量的理解。前两篇论文分别为住房交易和种族小费开发了新的经验测试。每篇论文都使用交易数据的详细性质来设计比迄今为止文献中出现的问题要少得多的混淆问题的测试。这一研究中的第三篇论文使用估计的邻里选择动态模型，以更好地了解偏好的作用与对价格和邻里动态的期望在种族隔离的演变和持久性中的期望。该项目具有更广泛的影响。 作为该项目的一部分开发的新数据集和方法可能适用于对住房市场和城市中更广泛的动态现象的研究。 此外，对住房市场波动的性质和原因的越来越多，可以直接利用联邦和地方一级的政策设定。